Brief Summary (Update 6:40 PM)
PPD Threats: NYM(20%)
Delay Threats: BAL(10%), CLE(15%), NYM(90%), COL(10%)
Good Hitting Environments: COL, BAL, CLE, TEX, HOU
Poor Hitting Environments: BOS, KC, LAD, SF, MIA
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Forecasting Analysis
CHC@PIT
Thunderstorms will pass through the region during the day and more will impact the region late tonight. However, this evening the region should be relatively dry with just a few widely scattered thunderstorms as can be seen by the simulated radar:
I will keep an eye on this region but not a big deal right now. VERY LOW CHANCE OF PPD OR OF ANY SORT OF DELAY(S)
LAA@BAL
At the time of scheduled 1st pitch, a line of thunderstorms should be north the region:
VERY LOW CHANCE OF PPD OR OF ANY TYPE OF DELAY(S)
NYY@CLE
Around 8 PM the radar should look like this:
The thunderstorms look slower to move into the region than earlier than in the day when I made my 1st forecast. VERY LOW CHANCE OF PPD; MODERATE RISK OF SOME SORT OF DELAY(S) AFTER 9 PM
WSH@NYM
Timing is critical in these forecasts I do. In my previous meteorological career, all I would have to say is "thunderstorms arriving in the evening" and leave it at that. Well, that does not cut it here! At the time of the scheduled 1st pitch, the radar in the Tri-State area could look like this:
Looks like we have a close call on out hands. Thunderstorms will around NYC and I can not guarantee than the area will not be affected. LOW TO MAYBE MODERATE RISK OF SOME SORT OF PPD; MODERATE RISK OF SOME SORT OF DELAY(S)
PHI@COL
The theme of tonight's forecast is timing, all about timing/ Let me show you another example:
As long as this timing is correct, we should not have a huge problem here. If this line of thunderstorms pushing well away from Denver is slower, then we have problems. Please note a few thunderstorms popping up behind the main line that I will have to watch carefully as well. LOW CHANCE OF PPD OR ANY TYPE OF DELAY(S)