Brief Summary (Updated 6:00 PM):
PPD Threat: NYM(50%)
Delay Threats:BOS(70%), BAL(20%), NYM(80%), TEX(25%)
Good Hitting Environments: BOS, BAL, TEX
Poor Hitting Environments:MIA, SF, KC
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FORECASTING ANALYSIS
Current radar:
So we have alot to pay attention to. In order of concern, it now goes NYM, BOS and then BAL. The major line of thunderstorms currently in central NY is forecast to move into NYM around 8 PM. The issue is that there will be a few renegade thunderstorms cells out ahead of this main line. A major problem arises if their are any delay(s) before that main line comes in since once it does, you have 1-2 hours of steady rain. I would put the chance of a renegade cell impacting Citi Field out ahead of the main line around 30-50%. If they do not get a chance to play a few(or several) innings before that main line comes in, a PPD is certainly a possibility. The chances of a delay look high at some point during the game.
In BOS, they will have more time to play before that line moves in (probably between 9 and 10 PM) and there is less of a chance of a renegade thunderstorm causing problems before then (would put that chance a 20%). So, more optimistic here. They should be able to play, look for a delay chance beginning around 9 PM.
In BAL, we have a few scattered thunderstorms around. Not a solid line. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong but the chances of a thunderstorm impacting the game is low to moderate.
In TEX, we have a few thunderstorms around. If one were to go right over the stadium we would have some problems. Even if that were the case, they are moving and a PPD would be unlikely. There certainly is a delay possibility (see chart above).
EVERYTHING FROM THIS POINT ON HAS NOT BEEN UPDATED
DET@BOS
It looks like a major line of thunderstorms may be approaching Boston around scheduled 1st pitch. Of course, we will have to see if the radar ends up looking like what it is predicted to:
That is a nasty looking line of thunderstorms. Possibly severe, certainly has the threat of some high winds. Again, we will have to see if the line develops like this model says it will.
LOW CHANCE OF A PPD; MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SOME TYPE OF DELAY(S)
COL@BAL
In a matchup of 2 teams whose ballparks are home run havens, The Rockies visit the mid-Atlantic region and the Orioles. To make the Rockies feel at home, Mother Nature will popup some thunderstorms:
Unlike BOS to the north, there is not a solid line of thunderstorms. That has both good and bad news. The good news is that Camden Yards is less likely to see rain. The bad news is that these individual thunderstorm cells have a better chance at being severe. Here is what the SPC says:
All this being said, LOW CHANCE OF A PPD; MODERATE RISK OF SOME TYPE OF DELAY(S)
STL@NYM
The same basic story for BOS and BAL will also be found in NYM. Here is what the radar is predicted to look like:
If the timing of this is correct, a delayed start may be the best way to handle this game. LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF A PPD; MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF ANY SORT OF DELAY(S)
