Cafe Pros, question.

Morning Cafe,

I have a question or two regarding NBA Cash and GPP lineups. I am way new to this compared to NFL because lets face it, I may have just joined DFS NFL this year but Ive been watching it relatively in depth for years. I don't watch NBA really (my Knicks in past years are unwatchable).

I had a question about your Finding Value article

https://www.dailyfantasycafe.com/academy/nba/finding-value

Is the formula 4x+5 the same for any cash game? Any DFS site? (I use DK and FH)

Is the formula 4x+8 the same for any GPP? Any DFS site? (I use DK and FH)

How was the formula figured out?

For my next question lets use Kristaps Porzingus as an example for a cash game contest.

If we use the formula above in DK we take $4800 *4 +5 =24.2FP. He is averaging 27.8 a game thus far making him a decent value?

Using the site http://www.basketball-reference.com/ for Usage % you see thus far he has a 25% usage making him even more decent for the price?

Am I right in these assumptions? Is there a step further I should go?

Edit: Another example in Tristan Thompson whose price is $4600 on DK making him 23.4 points after that formula. He is averaging 22.1 per game with 12.6% usage making him a bad play?

To answer your finding value question, it is based on the target score, which varies from GPP/Cash, to site. The larger the GPP, the higher I might set my target score, which differs the formula a bit. I am going to have Justin comment, because I use a different method/formula.

Yes, Porzingus is a nice value play right now with his production. The usage rate is nice, but his ceiling is limited with the minutes he is receiving. This is the only knock against him at the moment.

Thompson is a risky play, because like the other night, he relied on a blowout to get a bump in usage. Depending on the matchup, I would say there are better plays besides him.

Hey,

The formulas are just standard ways to determine how much production you need per dollar in order to reach a target goal. As mentioned in the article, those are just baseline numbers for FD on an average night. Each slate is unique, so those numbers are simply a baseline. There is no absolute as far as the number of points needed to cash on a given night, those just give you a good idea.

As far as the usage numbers, you don't necessarily need high usage players in cash games. In fact, a lot of times you can roster players who aren't high-usage players, but contribute in a lot of categories. Ultimately, minutes are more important than usage in cash games. You want a high floor, which many times comes from players who can contribute even when they aren't scoring real points. Fantasy points per minute can be a better statistic for that. It is easy to determine this early if you just divide the total number of fantasy points scored by the number of minutes played.

To answer your question on those two players specifically, Thompson is low usage, but also has a low floor (17.4, 14.1, 27.3, 26.3) so far this season. He makes for more of a GPP play. Porzingis is a solid FPPM (fantasy points per minute) player, but doesn't play a lot of minutes (roughly 24 per game). With that said, between the two, Porzingis and his usage would make him a better play between the two, but neither is an ideal cash game play at their current prices. You want players who can meet and exceed the value threshold. Neither of those two is necessarily likely to do that. Porzingis is a fringe play there in cash if you have to choose one, but with limited minutes and upside, you may be better off looking elsewhere.

Hope this helps!

@bigitaly42

I think that helps. I guess I just dont know where to start about having a formula to determine player value for DK or FH prices. I also dont know what score threshold will allow me to get in the $$ for DK/FH cash games/GPP.

Another player specific question. One of the sites recommended on your 'sports training' page is NBAWOWY. Michael Carter Williams is due to be out tonight and it appears Jerryd Bayless, who already has some good stats and minutes could see an uptick. Is that a fair assessment?

PS: I missed the money last night BigItaly and saw you pass me on Fantasy Hub. Also saw you in the big $$ tourney on there for NBA.... You end up doing well?