My surprise team on this list is Tulsa. If you looked at the box score you would not suspect Tulsa to be on this list. They held Florida Atlantic to 4 of 17 on third down for a conversion rate of less than 24%. The big thing for Tulsa was this game went into overtime and they allowed 96 plays. This week does not look to be any easier on them as they get a New Mexico team that put up 66 points in their opening weekend.
The team most likely to improve on this list has got to be Virginia Tech. They get was is essential a bye week this week against Furman. Virginia Tech was also one of the top defenses last year. They held opponents to less than 4 yards a carry and 30% on third down. Ohio State might be the top offense in the nation and it is hard to see a team with Furman talents gaining almost 10 yards a carry.
The team most likely to stay on this list for the rest of the season is SMU. They are a horrible defense who did not get any better in the off season. Last year they gave up nearly 42 points a game and could not stop anyone on the ground or air. The number that is telling for me on how horrible they truly were last year were their opponents 43.83% success rate on third down. They also were only able to force 16 turnovers the whole season. When you have a team that can not force an opponent off the field or force turnovers you are looking at one long season.
When I look at the top ten defenses after week 1 the team that jumps out to me as the team most likely to be on this list at the end of the season is Oregon State. They took advantage of playing a soft opening game against Weber State but things get much harder starting this week against Michigan. I am fully expecting the Beavers to revert to last years numbers where they gave up 31.6 points a game and saw their opponents score 85.71% of the time in the red-zone.
What team surprises you the most on this list?
