Sunday/Monday Game By Game Analysis

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Sunday, September 18, 1:05 PM

Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions (-5.5, 47.5)

Tennessee Titans DvP- QB (28), RB (5), WR (21), TE (24)

Detroit Lions DvP- QB (21), RB (20), WR (15), TE (28)

I see this game having the potential being a sneaky shootout. A lot of DFS experts have been pumping Marcus Mariota as a sneaky GPP play for the week. I do like the idea of playing Mariota in GPPs, but I would monitor how the buzz surrounding him affects his projected ownership %. One of my favorite things to do is look at the rankings and suggested plays from multiple different DFS sites to see which players they are recommending to play. Mariota could be a player that seems like he could fly under the radar but may being higher owned than one may think. Regardless, pairing him with either Tajae Sharpe or Delanie Walker could pay dividends by the end of the week. Sharpe played almost double the snaps of any other WR on the Titans roster, which clearly makes it seem he is the WR1 for the Titans. Detroit was awful against WR last year, and it seems like it will not change with what Andrew Luck did to them in Week 1. However, words of caution as it seems he will be matched up Darius Slay, who is one of the more underrated CB in the league. My favorite play for the Titans would be to slot Delanie Walker as a TE into lineups. The Detroit Lions were a bottom 5 defense against the TE last year and in game where the Titans will need to put up points, he seems like a top play at a weak position. For the Lions offense, it seems like once again you can fire up Matthew Stafford and his pass catchers once again. In Week 1, the Titans secondary got a free pass facing Shaun Hill and the Vikings. The toughest thing to decide is which one of his targets will receive his attention. Marvin Jones's price on DK has been corrected but is still moderately priced at $5,500. A surprise for the Lions was how effective both Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick were in Week 1. In GPPs, I could see the Lions once again being one of the higher QB/WR stacks since a lot of people are going to try and fit in the high priced WR who are all in very good spots this week. If playing some of the Lions skill positions, I would suggest trying to find a player or 2 who will be contrarian in order to differentiate your lineups.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (-2.5, 43.5)

Kansas City Chiefs DvP- QB (4), RB (3), WR (20), TE (3)

Houston Texans DvP- QB (6), RB (10), WR (4), TE (22)

This game features two of the better defenses in the NFL. Last week, I decided to take a stand and completely faded Spencer Ware in GPPs. As most of you can assume, that did not pay off for me. Even with a bad game script and the Chiefs facing a three touchdown deficit early in the game, Ware was still able to produce and be one of the top scoring RBs in Week 1. I would not expect his presence in passing game to be that drastic every week. Of note, Alex Smith did attempt the most passes in NFL career which played into Ware's fantasy point production. In regards to snap count, most people may not be aware that Charcandrick West was almost even with Ware. There may be some recency bias with Ware which could lead to a higher ownership % than he should in a matchup against the Texans. This week I am going to go back to the well and plan on fading Ware once again. The only player on the Chiefs I may consider this week in Travis Kelce. The weak spot in the Texans defense last year was the TE. However, they were able to completely shut down Zach Miller which may raise some red flags. In general, I plan to fade the Chiefs completely, but if you throw Kelce into a few lineups I would not have any qualms with it. With my failure in fading Ware last week, I was able to reap the benefits of Will Fuller in Week 1. He was one of my more highly exposed WR and it paid off. His issues with drops did show and could have even scored more if he was able to catch a pass which would have been a for sure 50-yard TD. His quickness did show in his TD reception where he avoided few tackles and was able to find the end zone. I would not expect him to receive more targets the DeAndre Hopkins but he once again is a viable option in this game. Speaking of Hopkins, he will more than likely be the lowest owned of the expensive WRs this week. With the Chiefs being below average against WR last year, there is a chance than he could break off a GPP winning performance. Last note on the Texans, Lamar Miller received 28 rushing attempts which is extremely encouraging. It was expected that his attempts would increase with the move to Houston, and it proved to be true. He did everything right except finding the end zone in Week 1. However, I prefer other RBs at his price and will avoid him this week

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5, 41.5)

Miami Dolphins DvP- QB (18), RB (31), WR (22), TE (16)

New England Patriots DvP- QB (13), RB (9), WR (19), TE (7)

I think most people were surprised last week with both of these teams. The Miami defense looked fantastic against the Seahawks last week until the final drive where Seattle was finally able to put them away. On the flip side, the Patriots were 9.5 point underdogs on the road against one of the best teams in football without Brady and Gronk but still were able to pull out a win. This game I actually see pretty straight forward and plan to attack these spots. For the record, if Gronk does play this week I still think his price is too high and will fade him in GPPs. On the Dolphins side, the only place I expect to look at is Jarvis Landry, especially on DK. The weakness in the Patriots defense is the slot WR, so it would not surprise me if Landry sees double digit targets which is very attractive on a full PPR site like DK. The rest of the Dolphins offense I plan to stay away from. For the Patriots one of my favorite plays in the whole slate is LeGarrette Blount (of note I may be biased since he led my team to the FD WFFC Championship last year). This game just reeks of a Blount game since I see the Patriots getting up early and then running him into the ground. I legitimately think he has an upside of 2 maybe 3 touchdowns and 100+ yards. I also like the correlation plays of Blount with the Patriots defense. I expected Ryan Tannehill to turn it over at least once and the Patriots have as good of a chance as anyone to get a defensive TD.

Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) at Cleveland Browns (42.5)

Baltimore Ravens DvP- QB (20), RB (8), WR (28), TE (2)

Cleveland Browns DvP- QB (29), RB (14), WR (32), TE (8)

The Cleveland Browns defense is really, really bad. In Week 1, they made Carson Wentz look like an All-Pro QB in first NFL start. This matchup just screams to stack Joe Flacco with his WR trio of Mike Wallace, Steve Smith Sr, and Kamar Aiken. The Ravens attempted the most passes in the league last year, but a lot of that was attributed to them having to play from behind in a majority of their games. In this game, I expect the Ravens to be playing from ahead. This leads me more to avoiding the stack and just play a single Ravens WR in my lineups. The WR that sticks out to me most is Mike Wallace. He finally has a QB that can throw the deep ball and it showed Week 1 with his long TD reception. I think he may fly under the radar more than he should as most experts have not generated as much buzz as I expected leading into the week. The RB situation in Baltimore is a mess and will continue to avoid the backfield until someone starts getting the lion share of the touches. I also do not mind taking a flier on the Ravens defense. I was impressed with what I saw in Week 1 against the Bills. The signing of Eric Weddle flew under the radar and it seems to have had a positive effect on the Ravens pass defense which struggled mightily in 2015. The big news for the Browns offense is the injury to RGIII. I believe this will negatively affected the young WRs and dramatically increase the effectiveness of Gary Barnidge. As seen last year, Josh McCown's favorite target is Barnidge and they seem to always be on the same page. Using Barnidge is not a terrible idea, but the Ravens were one of the top teams against the TE last year.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 48.5)

Cincinnati Bengals DvP- QB (3), RB (17), WR (11), TE (10)

Pittsburgh Steelers DvP- QB (17), RB (4), WR (29), TE (19)

Well the Pittsburgh Steelers continue to be one of the more dynamic offenses in the league. Antonio Brown is still the best WR in the league and whoever starts at RB continues to put up massive fantasy points. In this matchup against the Bengals, both Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams are back on my radar. Eli Rogers was impressive in Week 1, but the offensive will still run through these two guys. I recommend both of these players. Big Ben this week is a QB I could see going under owned. Being priced around other players like Eli Manning and Matthew Stafford, his ownership may be low enough to where I decide to fire him up in GPPs. I also think a stack of Big Ben, Williams, and Brown is a viable strategy this week. However, to play that I do believe you need to include one Bengal in that lineup. Of course, that player is A.J. Green. He just dominated Darrelle Revis last week and has an even better matchup this week. With Tyler Eifert still out due to injury, Green should expect to see double digit targets and most of the red zone targets as well. He also tends to have better road splits vs home splits if you need any more reason to play him. Green will be one of my most highly exposed WRs this week.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-3.0, 45.5)

Dallas Cowboys DvP- QB (10), RB (28), WR (6), TE (1)

Washington Redskins DvP- QB (22), RB (19), WR (30), TE (13)

In Week 1, it seemed like Dak Prescott forgot he is allowed to throw the ball farther than 10 yards. To make this easy, I will have 0 Dak Prescott lineups and 0 Dez Bryant lineups. Until he can prove he can throw the ball down the field, I believe Bryant is unusable in DFS. Due to this, I can see taking fliers on both Cole Beasley and Jason Witten. They are both strictly DK plays, but they both saw a large amount of targets last week and if one of them finds the end zone, it could be a sneaky way to move your way up the standings. However, the only player I am really considering is Ezekiel Elliott. Seeing what DeAngelo Williams did to the Redskins in Week 1, it would not surprise me if Elliott is able to have similar production. He is someone I will have exposure to this week as his upside is through the roof. The Redskins made a very average Steelers defense look great. Kirk Cousins looked horrible for most of the game and is off limits for me. On a similar note, Matt Jones is not very good. It just seems like his max amount of yardage on a carry is three. The only place I would consider is Jordan Reed. He is the best TE not named Gronk and can have a big game every week. I actually see this game going under the 45.5 total and would really only consider Elliott and Reed.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (-4.5, 53.0)

New Orleans Saints DvP- QB (32), RB (30), WR (26), TE (32)

New York Giants DvP- QB (30), RB (25), WR (24), TE (31)

Now for the Game of the Week. This is game everyone is talking about with the highest total on the board of 53. Everyone remembers the shootout in New Orleans last year with over 1,000 yards gained and passing touchdowns galore. The narrative is also boosted with the injury to Delvin Breaux who is probably would have been the best CB playing in this game. Let's start with the Saints. Drew Brees is the highest priced QB on DK and he should be. He was amazing last week against the Raiders and with this dream matchup the price reflects it. The narrative on Brees is his production drops off when he plays on the road, but I still do not think that is enough for people to get off of him. Stacking Brees with his WRs may be the most popular option this week. Speaking of his WRs, Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead will be two of the highest owned WRs this week. Both of them were among the highest scoring players at their position last week and going back to the well is a play that no one can argue with. If you want to get some lower owned exposure to the Saints, Michael Thomas and Coby Fleener are the ones to turn to. I am very high on the long term value of Thomas, and I believe he will be overshadowed by Cooks and Snead in regards to his ownership %. Last week, Fleener burned many DFS players. The bias on Fleener is going to be high and will drive his ownership down. I am still a believer and really do think he will go lower owned than he should in this matchup. For the Giants, I believe Eli Manning will be the highest owned QB on the slate this week. Between his price and production, I expected him to eclipse the 20% ownership with Brees not being too far behind. On the same note, OBJ I expected will be the highest owned WR. He may have already been one of the highest owned before the injury to Breaux. However, my bold call of the week may be the fade him. I really like a ton of the high priced WRs and can get them at a way lower ownership than OBJ. To get WR exposure for the Giants, I will probably more Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz. Both of these two WRs caught TD passes and it would not surprise me if they eat into OBJ's production again. It's going to be tough to not have exposure to this game in lineups this week, but I may throw in a couple that fade the game completely to try and maybe gain an edge on the field.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (-13.5, 45.5)

San Francisco 49ers DvP- QB (15), RB (32), WR (17), TE (9)

Carolina Panthers DvP- QB (5), RB (13), WR (14), TE (11)

How much fantasy production can the Panthers get in before this turns into a blowout? That is the main question that needs to be answered in this game. With the 49ers playing on a short week, traveling from the West Coast to the East, and playing the early game, it just leads to this game being extremely uncompetitive. As of right now, I really think I am going to fade the Carolina WRs. Kelvin Benjamin had an impressive Week 1, but I could see this game being 21-0 early in the first half and the Panthers just running and killing the clock. Jonathan Stewart is such a very boring name, but I could see him in a game like this getting 20+ carries, exceeding 100 yards, and getting a TD. He could be useful in GPPs. Cam Newton may be the toughest person to evaluate this week. If he is able to throw multiple TDs early in the game and run one in later when they are running out the clock, he could be the top QB this week. I am leaning towards actually playing him naked this week without any of his pass catchers. Greg Olsen is a viable TE option if he is able to get his production early. Last week, Olsen was irrelevant until the Panthers last drive. If he repeats that, Olsen could burn people with an expected high ownership this week. Lastly, the Panthers D will be in play and highly owned. With how fast the 49ers play, the turnover possibilities are higher than most and I will have a decent amount of exposure to them. I'll make the 49ers outlook pretty easy. If you play any 49ers, you will regret it come Tuesday.

Sunday, September 18th, 4:05 PM

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, 50.0)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers DvP- QB (23), RB (16), WR (23), TE (14)

Arizona Cardinals DvP- QB (16), RB (7), WR (9), TE (18)

This is another game where the game flow seems pretty straight forward. The Cardinals should be in the lead with the Bucs trying to play catchup. For Arizona, I think everyone skill position player is viable. I believe the Cardinals passing game will be overshadowed by teams such as the Saints, Giants, and Steelers. Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown could all put up GPP winning production. The problem with the Cardinals each week is figuring out which WR will stand out from the other two. Last week it was Fitzgerald. This week I may lean towards Floyd to avoid the inflated Fitzgerald ownership. The one Cardinals player I will have high exposure to is David Johnson. He was very impressive and looked like the elite RB people expected coming into the season. The game flow will not dictate his production as he will see touches regardless if it is a close game or a blowout. The only Tampa play I will play is Mike Evans. He is by far their best player and in a game they are expected to be behind in, he is a WR who will see a lot of targets. He will have to deal with the coverage of Patrick Peterson, but if he is able to break on or two plays he could have a big day.

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 38.5) at Los Angeles Rams

Seattle Seahawks DvP- QB (1), RB (1), WR (3), TE (26)

Los Angeles Rams DvP- QB (9), RB (23), WR (8), TE (21)

Being the lowest total on the board, the target of most players will be the Seahawks D. They will be the chalk defense after the abysmal performance the Rams put together last week. Fading the Seahawks D will be an easy way to differentiate yourself in GPPs this week. With how conservative the Rams offense is, the turnover potential may not be as high for the Seahawks as it may seem. For the Seahawks offense, I plan on fading them completely. Russell Wilson tweaked his ankle last week and may not be 100% for the game. The upside for his WRs is low due to the game flow I see occurring in this game. Finally, the RB situation is a toss-up. A report was released today stating the it is expected Thomas Rawls will be the starting RB come Sunday. However, it is not known how much his workload will increase this week. I also think the Rams D is a whole lot better than what they showed on Monday night. For the Rams, it is a similar strategy to the 49ers and I plan to stay away from all of them.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-6.0, 46.0)

Indianapolis Colts DvP- QB (25), RB (18), WR (27), TE (27)

Denver Broncos DvP- QB (2), RB (12), WR (2), TE (23)

This game I actually think could have more fantasy production than most think. I expect the Broncos to be ahead with Colts playing from behind. We all know how bad the Colts defense was against the Lions last week, but I was surprised with how the Broncos D played against the Panthers. I honestly think there may be some cracks in the Broncos defense and it would not surprise me if the Colts put up some garbage points in this game. I do not recommend playing Andrew Luck, but throwing in guys such as T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and Dwayne Allen could be a sneaky play to get 2nd half production once the game is out of hand. For me, the injury update I am looking at most this week is Demaryius Thomas. If he does not play, I will be playing a lot of Emmanuel Sanders this week. Trevor Siemian impressed me last week against a top NFL defense and now he faces one of the worst. I think if Thomas is out, Siemian will start to lock on Sanders and may turn him into a GPP game changer. One of the players that many DFS pros are recommending this week is C.J. Anderson and it easy to see why. He was one of the bigger surprises of Week 1 and seems to be the bell cow back for the Broncos. He was effective running the ball as well as catching balls out of the backfield. He is one of my top RBs this week even at his high ownership. With the expectation that the Broncos will be ahead, Anderson could see a significant amount of volume in this matchup.

Atlanta Falcons at Oakland Raiders (-5.0, 49.5)

Atlanta Falcons DvP- QB (7), RB (27), WR (1), TE (29)

Oakland Raiders DvP- QB (24), RB (21), WR (12), TE (30)

Atlanta and Oakland could be another game that flies under the radar but could into a shootout. The health of Julio Jones needs to be monitored but I expect him to play with no issues this week. I think most people did not realize that Matt Ryan went for over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns last week. I think he is a sneaky QB play that not many people are talking about. If Julio is healthy, he is very much in play this week. With how well Mike Evans played against this Falcon secondary last week, there is no reason Julio would not be able to do the same. A low end TE that I plan to throw into lineups this week is Jacob Tamme. The Oakland Raiders are notorious for being awful in defending the TE. Tamme actually tied for the team lead in targets last week with 8. If he is able to find the end zone, the salary relief he brings to lineups can used to upgrade at other spots. The RB situation for the Falcons is interesting with both Freeman and Coleman getting an even share of the touches. I plan to stay away until one of them starts to separate from the other. The Oakland Raiders were part of the most entertaining game of last week. I think that game showed that this offense can be explosive at times. Derek Carr is in play for me this week as are Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. However, if I had to pick one I would probably lean towards Crabtree. He will have an easier WR/CB matchup with Cooper having to line up against Desmond Trufant a majority of the snaps and Crabtree last year was getting more of the Red Zone targets. Latavius Murray will be a fade for me this week. He just seems to not have the ability to crate explosive plays for himself and see him as a player similar to Jonathan Stewart who will get his 3 to 4 yards a carry but not do much else.

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-3.0, 47.0)

Jacksonville Jaguars DvP- QB (27), RB (24), WR (16), TE (25)

San Diego Chargers DvP- QB (12), RB (26), WR (5), TE (20)

With the injury to Keenan Allen, many people are wondering which Charger will benefit the most. In the long run it could change, but I believe in this first week that Phillip Rivers will rely on one of his most trusted players, Danny Woodhead. Danny Woodhead may be the RB I have the most exposure to this week. Woodhead received more carries than Melvin Gordon (16 to 14) and also received 7 targets. It is in the realm of possibility that Woodhead could get the same amount of carries and see an uptick in his target total. My call of the week is that Danny Woodhead will be in the winning Milly Maker lineup on DK. Another player I plan to fade this week is Allen Robinson. He will be matchup up against Jason Verrett, who was rated as one of the top CB in football last year. Robinson has struggled historically against the better CB which leads me to this being an Allen Hurns game. He will be a player I plan to plan a decent amount in lineups this week. I also think T.J. Yeldon is a viable option this week. Assuming Chris Ivory misses again, he should be a true three down back and will get enough touches to be fantasy relevant.

Sunday, September 18th, 8:30 PM

Green Bay Packers (-2.5, 44.0) at Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay Packers DvP- QB (14), RB (11), WR (10), TE (17)

Minnesota Vikings DvP- QB (11), RB (6), WR (13), TE (12)

This game is going to be a fun game to watch on Sunday night, but I do not see it being fantasy relevant. Being division rivals in the NFC North, these teams know each other very well. This will be one of those grind it out football games that I think will be lower scoring than most expect, mainly on the Green Bay side of the ball. As Minnesota showed last week, they have a very good defense that will limit the upside of the Packers players. Will so many other players having better matchups than what the Packers have, I plan to fade the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Eddie Lacy. Similarly, Adrian Peterson is one on the fade list this week. He was not able to get it going last week and I see the same thing happening this week. If I play anyone from this game, it would be the Packers defense. They have a favorable price on DK but they are limited in being able to create turnovers due to the Vikings conservative play calling.

Monday, September 19th, 8:30 PM

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (-3.0, 43.0)

Philadelphia Eagles DvP- QB (31), RB (29), WR (31), TE (6)

Chicago Bears DvP- QB (26), RB (22), WR (7), TE (15)

The Monday Night game features two teams where I really only see one player who I would actually want to play. He happens to also be the best player on the field. That would be Alshon Jeffrey. The Kevin White hype seems to be unwarranted as he really has not shown much in the preseason as well as Week 1. Jeffrey is the favorite target of Cutler and he seem to try to force the ball to Jeffrey whenever he can. I can understand if someone would want to play Jeremy Langford this week. He will get the touches, but I also tend to think he is not very good and will not do much with those touches. Langford is a player who people tend to love or hate, and I tend to fall on the latter end. I also really like both the defenses in this game. Cutler is just a turnover machine which lead to Eagles defensive touchdowns. The Eagles also feature one of the best returners in the game in Darren Sproles who is always primed to break one and take it to the house. The Bears defense will be going against a rookie QB who really was not tested in his opener against the Browns. I think the Bears will be tougher for Carson Wentz to deal with and could create multiple turnovers.

7 years ago
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