Week 1 of The Dumb Guy's Journey with Colossus

Week 1 of The Dumb Guy's Journey with Colossus

1. NFL 100K First Down GPP $1.00

2. NFL 1M Playaction GPP $6.00

3. NFL 1M Kickoff GPP $0.00

4. NFL Massive Double up Cash $2.00

5. NFL Giant Double up (Early) Cash $2.00

6. NFL Giant Double up (Afternoon) Cash $2.00

7. NFL 75K Playaction (Early) GPP $3.00

8. NFL Beginner 2K Playaction (Afternoon) GPP 3.00

9. NFL 300K Sunday Night Special (Sunday Night) GPP 3.00

10. NFL Sunday Night Double up(Sunday Night) Cash 2.00

Total Entry Fees $ 24.00 Total Winnings $ 30.00

Overall ROI: 25%

I played in 10 tournaments for $15 dollars and I ended up winning $21.50. So I won $6.50. Which to me is fine especially in GPP fields give me still a shot to make a big payday one day.

In 9 tournaments I used the top 9 lineups from Colossus and in the one league I stacked Ben Roth with Antonio Brown and that was my highest paid league at $10 took top 250.

I placed in 5 leagues out of 10.

Overall great first week using Colossus and trying to think of different ways to approach week 3.

I was looking at $1 Million Guaranteed GPP for Draft Kings and one player mdigiaco took 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. With 3 different lineups I was thinking he may use something like Colossus.

I am thinking instead of doing the top 9 Colossus this week do the top 1 and then make sure I really change the players up because this past week I had Raven D for all of them and I had their RB Justin, but it wasn't the best result :).

Any suggestions is greatly appreciated.

@tlp407 - thanks for the update. With all the injuries, I think you did alright. You asked with a positive ROI.

A few questions/ideas on how you're using Colossus:

1. Are you using the Projections Game Type for GPP and Cash respectively when running lineups?

2. How many players are you locking in on average when running lineups?

3. Are you using player Exposure to limit risk from injuries/poor performance?

4. You may want to consider not stacking RB with QB and RB with WRs. It can work with a monster team total, but you are working against yourself and there are likely better plays.

5. If you play 2 or 3 WRs/TEs from one team, you want to stack a QB with them.

6. We just implemented Projection Models that you can also apply to projections based on what you deem valuable. Take a look for Week 3.

Hey Sam yes I am using the game types when I pick the lineups all of these lineups are the pure #1 lineups from Colossus based on game type and time of day. Those are the only two things that I change so that I am only picking what the program thinks is their best possible outcome. I am not taking into account exposure on these as I want to only go with exactly what Colossus would pick without any other factors to influence it. Having said that I am varying my exposure when it comes to my personal lineups. I will definitely be checking out the projection model for my plays this week. Thanks for the tips and feedback

Sam- what would you consider a good exposure %? For example I had 10 lineups this week all with Ravens defense and Justin their RB because of that I lost out on a few extra dollars.

@eugene - I don't know if there is a blanket "good exposure %" rule. Each person has a different risk threshold. Also depends on the amount of lineups you enter. I know players that won't go over 30% exposure on any single player and those that won't go over 50%.

@tlp407 - we are building in default no RB with QB functionality soon, so I would go with that as "default" settings for now.

So basically with the QB going the other teams RB will not come back in the projected lineups. I guess the logic is if it likes the other teams QB then the RB will be less valuable?

@tlp407 - sorry, mistype. Meant to say QB paired with RB to avoid cannabilizing TDs.

Got it I will factor that in this week

Like you said Eugene, turning a small profit is helpful in GPPs because it keeps your head above water to hit big. Avoiding taking a bath by turning in some small profits is necessary to stretch your bankroll in the volatile world of GPP play.

tlp407, for a wonky week of injuries and performances, coming out ahead is great! Just think about how frustrated the gamers who over exposed themselves to the juicy total in the Eagles/Cowboys games feel haha!

I am one of those idiots who took a bath Colossus won this week I didn't lol. It was a nightmare my actual lineups were destroyed this week I took a 40% loss due to all those damn injuries.

Ill take a 60% win rate any week.

No meaning I lost 40% of what I put up that week. I wish i had that win rate its all good though its all fun money anyway

Well, I lost 6 of 7 last week. Then I found this site.

And learned stuff. Hoping to go 50% this week and build on that for next week. Im on Draft Kings also.

Well guys I'm about to place the week 2 lineups lets see how this thing goes

Should I apply the models to the lineups to get the optimal best picks from Colossus this week or just go with the factory defaults

tlp407 are you just going with the basic lineup colossus gives you or are you making adjustments this week?

For the purpose of this experiment I am going with Colossus's top lineups my own games I am making my own predictions and mixing in some of the lineups that it spits out. In regards to this it is all Colossus I am making no changes. Also Eugene hit me up on gmail it's the same as the user name.

@tlp407 per "Should I apply the models to the lineups to get the optimal best picks from Colossus this week or just go with the factory defaults"

Depends on what you value. I like to use the models. They basically weight these elements and increase/decrease based on current data. If nothing else, I say use the Vegas Totals. Next would be Fantasy Points Allowed and next would be Yards Per Game.