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Is there a "magic" mix of projection models (with or w/oexposure)in the DFC Advance tools that more accurate? Need Help Quick! Thank You!

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FD is hosting a $1 Per Entry, (150 Max entry), $150K ($10K to 1st) Main Slate for MLB on opening day. The price per line was too good to pass up, so of course I bought 150 lines. Now, I could really use your advice. I'm still a newbie to MLB dfs. I took 1st in a couple MLB tourneys last summer, but it was only because the math happen to check out those nights. I'm a bit overwhelmed with all the options on the MLB Advance tools. Could you guys suggest which of the projection models or variables that I should pay more or less attention to? Is there a "magic" combo of models and exposure that you guys have found to be more accurate or consistent in MLB? I have watched the videos for each section. I'm kinda jumping in head first, so could really use any advice you may have. I need help kinda quick. I have to get these 150 line figured out before Monday morning.

1 year ago

Setting a 150 lineups is still quite the process and exposure will help that move along. Starting with your pitchers, this is best to narrow down. If your goal is to try and cover all angles as best you can, you can let exposure run its course. I suggest narrowing down your pitchers to a smaller number. On Opening Day with mostly aces going, you can lock 5-6 arms and set exposure. Pitcher is the most crucial position for success, so keying in on a good core here goes a long way. In your first 100 lineups, if you want Kershaw pitching in 50 of them, setting his exposure to 50% will do that. Your following arms can all be run between 0-50%. If you are researching -- K%, Moneyline, and Opp Run Rotal are things to pay attention to. Those models are also ones to use for pitchers. Moneyline and Opp Run Total will show the safer arms on the slate, while K% adds that upside factor you are looking for in tournaments.

Moving to hitters, if you are looking to lock and exclude to narrow down your player pool, the games tab is a good place to start. We updated this section to make it easier to see players on individual teams. You can also exclude full on teams. wRC+ and run total are the models I use quite a bit. Park Factors is also something I will sneak into heighten GPP upside. Models have been revamped this season, and you will see the who is affected easily with a red or green box.

My personal preference is to lock cores by position, which can range from in numbers of the size of the core. Using 150 lineups, you can branch out and add some riskier low owned guys. I would then rank them and set their exposure by your favorite plays. Using those models can easily indicate upside and where to look.

Our new Stacks feature is also an area to set some lineups with. Our optimizer will quickly set stacks within lineups based on the team or player you choose to build around.

Hopefully this can get you going. Let me know if you have any questions, we can chat in this thread further.

1 year ago

thanks for the advice especially on the models. Kershaw seems to be crowd favorite, but I'm also liking Porcello and Strasburg. I'm setting exposure @ 40%, 30%, 30% respectively as listed. Setting hitter pool to 70% all. Does this look about right? Or do you think that may be a little aggressive?

1 year ago

No problem, and how big is your hitter pool?

1 year ago

I filtered the batters by their position in the line 1-5 and then by park. Ran the 1st 25 and looked for the batters that repeated the most and did a quick "verification" on each of them an d then wrote down the players that appeared least often and researched them more closely to see if they were worth risking the rest of the line or if they were just a "next in line" price filler that was generated for lack of a better reason. I also use LineStar that had "fan sense" feature. It allows for people to "love or hate" any player and shows the ratings in real time. There is also a separate message board for each player card for players to leave comments. I find fan knowledge useful in fine tuning. So I guess the short answer is I didn't immediately limit my hitter pool to a specific number to avoid overlooking players I just may not be familiar with since I'm new to MLB and it's the beginning of the season.Any suggestions?

1 year ago

oh yeah. And avoided the whitesox and padres

1 year ago

If that's how you found your core, that's cool. We have Cheat Sheets, podcasts, and articles up on the site from our writers daily. It's worth checking out. But if you are generating lineups and you are covering your filtered player pool across all lineups and see the varaiance, you should be all set.

1 year ago

my final player pool. 40 players / 96 lines up. (ran out of time before work)

1B Chris Davis
1B Freddie Freeman
1B Hanley Ramirez
1B Joey Votto
1B Miguel Cabrera
1B Tommy Joseph
2B Brian Dozier
2B Daniel Murphy
2B Dustin Pedroia
2B Logan Forsythe
3B JaCoby Jones
3B Jonathan Villar
3B Justin Turner
3B Maikel Franco
3B Miguel Sano
C Sandy Leon
OF Adam Duvall
OF Adam Eaton
OF Adam Jones
OF Andrew Benintendi
OF Billy Hamilton
OF Bryce Harper
OF Charlie Blackmon
OF Curtis Granderson
OF Hyun-soo Kim
OF Jackie Bradley
OF Jay Bruce
OF Jayson Werth
OF Jose Bautista
OF Justin Upton
OF Mark Trumbo
OF Odubel Herrera
OF Scott Schebler
OF Victor Martinez
P Clayton Kershaw
P Rick Porcello
P Stephen Strasburg
SS Corey Seager
SS Jorge Polanco
  1. Trea Turner
1 year ago

indyrockstar76 is my handle if you wanna see how it all shakes out on FD

1 year ago

96 lines. Escaped Won $90 (-$6 loss) It wasn't want I hoped for, but it honest about what I expected. Sometimes a push is a win.

Thanks for the help!

1 year ago

Breaking even on Opening Day isn't a bad thing. Having a couple of rainout players doesn't help either. Next time you multi-enter, I might try and build 25 lineups at a time. Easier to set exposure and see who you are working with. Any feedback or issues for the tools after your Opening Day run?

1 year ago
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