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Wells Fargo Championship Review

There aren't enough fire emojis to properly describe Rory McIroys' golf game right now, and he ran away this weekend to a resounding win at Quail Hollow. He was our top Pin Seeker play last week, and if you were lucky enough to catch his sublime 61 on Sunday, there's no confusion as to why he's the world #1. He's got two wins in his last three starts, and when he's on his game, nobody in golf can keep pace. Below are my Draftkings results from last week, my first losing week in the last six.

At the Daily Fantasy Café, we don't run and hide from our bad picks, and to keep things topical, can't offer a 94% win rate guarantee either. I had too much exposure to Jason Kokrak and JB Holmes last week, which derailed a few lineups right away, but not all of our picks were bad. Most of our plays made the cut, and boom or bust play Tony Finau came in the top 20. This is the week I targeted to start investing more in daily golf, after testing a few different GPP strategies over the last couple months.

Crowne Plaza Invitational Preview

We go from a bombers paradise at Quail Hollow to an accuracy driven track at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, TX. We'll have plenty of course history to look at, as Colonial has been home to this event since 1946. I won't be looking at any driving distance stats this week, as they just don't lend themselves to success here. With so much danger lurking on this course, players who know the ins and outs of the layout have a distinct advantage. The pricing is a lot tighter this week, but there are still a lot of middle tier value plays that I really like. Defending Champion Adam Scott is in the field, as well as the man he beat in last years playoff, Jason Dufner.

Key Stats for the course

As I already mentioned, I will be focusing primarily on accuracy statistics this week. As well, the greens at Colonial are very tricky and tiny, so good putters and scramblers flourish here as well. There hasn't been a first time winner here since Sergio Garcia in 2001, so course history will play a big role in research along with the key stats. Since the year 2000, 12 of the past 15 winners have finished the season in the top 50 in Par 4 Scoring (P4S,) with 8 actually finishing in the top 10! Needless to say, making birdies on the par 4's this week will be imperative. Back to the accuracy theme, four of the past five winners have finished in the top 50 in Driving Accuracy (DA.) If players do get into trouble in the tree lined fairways, or in one of the many bunkers, scrambling (SCR) is going to be vital. Six of the past eight winners have finished the year in the top 50 in scrambling. Finally, once on the green, a hot putter will be the determining factor between winning and losing, as it usually is. Strokes gained putting (SGP) is the most effective way to gauge a players true skill on the greens, as it doesn't weigh each putt equally, but instead in terms of difficulty by length against the field. Four of the last eight winners have finished the year in the top 20 in SGP. As well as the four key stats, always have a look at strokes gained tee to green, and for Colonial especially, sand save percentage (SS%.) Six of the last seven winners have finished the year in the top 50 in SS%. All of this info can be found very handily at www.pgatour.com.

Top Pin Seekers

Jordan Spieth

DraftKings

DA

SGP

P4S

SCR

$13,300

101

6

2

15

Even with a missed cut at TPC Sawgrass, aside of Rory, nobody is in better form than Spieth. He will hit 3 wood all week to keep it in the short grass, and then attack everywhere. I expect him to make a boatload of birdies, and at 5-1, Vegas likes his chances against this average field. Spieth is a magician around the green, and basically hits on every stat this week. GPP Ownership guess: 30-35%

Zach Johnson

DraftKings

DA

SGP

P4S

SCR

$12,000

21

159

29

79

Horse for the Course, with two wins, and 5 top 10's in his last six starts. If he somehow get his putter going this week, he's almost a lock for at least a top 10. In his two wins, he finished the week in the top 10 in strokes gained putting. He also ranks 27th in SS%. GPP Ownership guess: 20-25%

Kevin Na

DraftKings

DA

SGP

P4S

SCR

$9,900

112

64

19

18

Na is playing some great golf lately, including a 6th place finish at the Players Championship. Also ranks 5th in SS%. I really like him in GPP's as the upside is tremendous, but don't trust him enough for cash games yet. GPP Ownership guess: 10-15%

Brendon Todd

DraftKings

DA

SGP

P4S

SCR

$9,100

14

22

58

5

Todd will be a cash game staple this week, and also makes a great tournament play. He crushes almost any pertinent stat, and is having a solid year so far. He played well here in 2014, with a 5th place finish. GPP Ownership guess: 7-12%


Middle Tee Plays

Paul Casey – DK Price $9,300 – 29th in P4S & 18th in T2G

Ryan Palmer – DK Price $9,600 – Colonial is home course & 2 top 5 finishes in last 3 appearances– 11th in T2G & 41st in P4S

Ian Poulter – DK Price $9,100 - 3rd in P4S – top 50 in SS%, SCR & SGP

Chris Kirk – DK Price $9,000 – 1st in SS% & 40th in SCR

Russell Knox – DK Price $8,200 – 24th in DA & 10th in P4S


GPP Dart Board Dreams

John Peterson – DK Price $6,900 – great price, use in cash and GPP – top 25 in SCR, DA & P4S

Jason Bohn – DK Price $7,300 – 43rd in T2G & top 16 in DA & P4S

Martin Laird – DK Price $6,800 – two top 10's in four starts – 19th in P4S & 23rd in T2G


Fades

I will be fading defending champ Adam Scott, as he just cannot get his putter going lately. His price actually isn't too bad, so I will have a bit of exposure to him, but definitely would avoid him in cash games.



Comments
sports_25tolife
I love John Peterson this week as well, going to be a big focus of my GPP lineups, great work.
JasonG4s
Awesome info here, been reading more and more into PGA. This has helped out a lot.