The First Tee at The Northern Trust Open (Riviera Country Club)

The First Tee at The Northern Trust Open (Riviera CC)

When I referenced the success that veterans had experienced at the AT&T Pro Am, I was speaking along the lines of Phil Mickelson, Brandt Snedeker and Dustin Johnson. The trend continued in 2016, with Phil Mickelson standing over a 5 foot birdie putt on the 72^nd hole to force a playoff with PGA journeyman Vaughn Taylor. Never one to miss a dramatic moment, Mickelson had put himself in great position to win a record tying 5^th AT&T Pro-Am, but unfortunately for Phil, he left his putt on the high side and missed a great opportunity. This tournament was not just about him missing a makeable putt on 18 though, Taylor deserves credit for seizing the moment and notching his first PGA Tour victory since back to back wins at Reno-Tahoe in 2004 and 2005. 2005 was Taylor's first year on Tour, and notching a victory in his first full season was a big deal. He played well enough to earn the right to be on the US Ryder Cup team in 2006, a right that stands next to major championship victories as the pinnacle of a player's career. Taylor slowly plummeted after reaching that pinnacle though, culminating in him losing his PGA Tour card while dealing with injuries and inconsistent play. After playing well in limited appearances last year, Taylor finished 151^st on the money list, when 150^th would have cemented his tour status. He traveled to Pebble Beach last week as the second alternate, not even knowing whether he would compete in the tournament, let alone win it. His story is one of the more improbable I can remember, but it stands as a good reminder that golf at the PGA Tour level is wildly unpredictable. The win gave Taylor full time status on the PGA Tour, but even more importantly, it gave him the chance to compete in this year's Masters Tournament, just a stone's throw from where he grew up in Augusta, Georgia. The 39 year old has a lot of game, and it will be fun to watch him play without the pressure of knowing when his next appearance will be.

The Field

The tour moves down the coast of California to this week's Northern Trust Open, hosted by Riviera Country Club. Last year's tournament ended in dramatic fashion, with “Gang Em Style" James Hahn defeating Dustin Johnson and Paul Casey to notch his first victory as a professional. The playoff showcased some incredible shot making, including Dustin Johnson getting up and down with a short sided flop shot on the 1^st playoff, as well as Hahn making several clutch putts from outside 10 feet. Hahn will return this week to defend his crown, but he will have his hands full with some of the best players in the world in attendance.

Most notably, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy are both in the field this week, and they will do battle for the first of many times this year. Each time they tee it up this season, they will be fighting for the #1 world ranking, a chase that also includes Jason Day. Spieth's run of consecutive top 10's came to an end this past week at Pebble Beach, but he's already recorded his first win of the season at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions where he finished with a ridiculous (-30). McIlroy will look to join him in the winner's circle, but this week is far from a two man race.

Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Rose, Jimmy Walker, Bubba Watson, Sergio Garcia, JB Holmes, Charles Schwartzel, Adam Scott, Bill Haas, Paul Casey and Matt Kuchar are all top flight golfers who are capable of winning at Riviera.

The field will also boast some impressive young talent in Justin Thomas, Andy Sullivan, Bernd Weisberger and Patrick Rodgers. That young talent is balanced with PGA Tour veterans (and Senior Tour Players) like two time US Open champ, Retief Goosen, his fellow South African, Ernie Els and the venerable crowd favorite, Freddie Couples.

Riviera is one of the tougher tracks on Tour, so it will be interesting to see how the youngsters do on a course they've probably played less than a handful of times. On the other hand, the veterans may have a declining skillset, but they possess the course knowledge and wisdom to avoid the big mistakes that plague many new comers to Riviera.

The Course

Of all the tournaments played on Tour each year, The Northern Trust is one of my favorites due to the demand that is placed on each golfer. Riviera Country Club is a perennial top 100 course and for good reason, having hosted a US Open and two PGA Championships, the most recent being in 1995. The course is nicknamed “Hogan's Alley" due to the success Ben Hogan had playing there, as well as his reverence for the course in general. The course was designed by George Thomas in the early 1920's. His design had input from famed architect, Allister MacKenzie, whose magic touch graces some of the world's best courses, including Augusta National. Riviera plays as a par 71, and will max out at 7,332 yards this week.

With this in mind, it should come as no surprise that Riviera possesses some very unique architecture, highlighted by the par 3 6^th hole that features a bunker in the middle of the green, effectively dividing the green in two sections. My favorite hole on the course is the par 4 10^th. It is drivable for most professionals, but features a very narrow green that is surrounded by bunkers. Dustin Johnson drove the ball in a green side bunker last year, and three shots later he had yet to have a putt. It is a true risk-reward hole, and one that allows players to make anything from an eagle to a triple-bogey by using any number of different strategies. This is why Riviera has stood the test of time, as the modern day technology cannot account for strategy and course management.

The greens are a Bent Grass/POA hybrid, and average only 5,000 square feet. They are some of the smallest greens on Tour and are anything but circular. The greens have varying width and depth and force players to pick their approach shots very carefully. The fairways and rough are Kikuyu Grass. Kikuyu is famous for being “sticky", referring to the way the grass can force the club to twist prior to impact, and you'll hear this mentioned during the telecast.

Year in year out, the one thing you can count on at Riviera is that players will be baffled by short putts. For five consecutive years, Riviera has ranked as the toughest greens inside of three feet. Last year, a whopping 72 putts were missed within three feet. To put that in perspective, Jason Day was one of seven players who led the PGA Tour in that statistic last year---they made 100% of their putts inside 3 feet--, and this isn't a small sample size, Day made 614 of 614 putts. Lucas Glover was dead last on tour, and he made 96.5% of his putts. Essentially, the difference between the best putter and the worst putter is one missed putt each tournament. If you factor in 72 missed putts last year at Riviera, or averaged out to one per player who made cut, the greens at Riviera have effectively neutralized any advantage that elite putters have. While I wouldn't totally count out the advantage that someone like Jordan Spieth or Ryan Moore has on the greens, a pattern of unpredictability has emerged at Riviera.

Rankings

There are usually metrics that I pick out each week that identify a player profile who can find success at each given course. Riviera is an entirely different beast though, and if there is one strength that I can see emerging this week, it is the player that has no weakness. You need to be able to drive the ball in the fairway, be extremely precise with your approach shots, and not get too greedy on the greens. When the opportunity presents itself for a birdie, you need to take advantage of it, but this is not a course to try and force the action. I could see an elite ball-striker like Hideki Matsuyama succeeding, or it could be a power player like Rory or DJ. Jordan Spieth could be an outlier on the greens and make all of his putts inside three feet, or a wily veteran like Freddie Jacobsen could win by making the fewest mistakes. While this may be true on most courses, Riviera is a course that will compound any mistake and one bad shot could ruin an entire round. I will stray away from the birdie-bogey player in favor of the par-par player, as what you lose in birdie points, you will make up in the volume of surviving the cut and having four rounds of play.

These are my top five players, as always, I use a PP$ approach that focuses on a player's chance of winning the tournament, making the cut, and how their skillset matches up with the course.

• 1.) Hideki Matsuyama: Matsuyama has the benefit of being in the second tier of salaries, and he showed several weeks ago that he is more than capable of winning tournaments. His course history is not extensive, but in his first two tries he's placed T24 in 2014, and 4^th place in 2015. His elite ball-striking leads to a plethora of birdie opportunities, which is key to surviving Riviera. He fits the profile of a player who has no weakness, and that should suit him very well with the unpredictability of Riviera's greens.
• *The most recent reports have Matsuyama suffering from a case of the flu. When we know more, we will report it, but barring a withdrawal I don't see a reason to come off of him If anything his physical condition will lower his percentage owned. If you are heavily exposed to Matsuyama, the smart money would be to diversify somewhat and leave yourself an out in case he has trouble getting around the course.
• 2.) Dustin Johnson: Similar to Matsuyama, DJ is priced roughly 15% less than Spieth and McIlroy on DraftKings. This price difference is a big factor in being able to balance out the rest of your roster, and I think that will come in handy this week. DJ's course history speaks for itself, T4 in 2014, and T2 in 2015. He has won a tour event in each of his last eight seasons, so there is no doubt that he is capable of bringing home some hardware this week. He is comfortable at Riviera, and his experiences last year in the majors have only matured him as a player.
• 3.) Jordan Spieth: All things equal, Spieth is the favorite any time he tees it up and this week would be no exception. His salary is inflated to the point that it balancing out your roster becomes a very difficult task. In order to make it work, you need to be creative in how you go about your roster construction, but it is possible. Some may not know, but Spieth is no stranger to Riviera, having played some 20+ competitive rounds that includes a national championship victory in college. I am interested to see how he fares on the gnarly greens, but his course management is so far ahead of any other player that he could win this tournament by just making the least mistakes.
• 4.) Bubba Watson/Justin Rose/Charles Schwartzel: I am grouping these players together because they are all in a similar tier salary wise, and have solid course history, albeit to varying degrees. Watson won this tournament in 2014, by shooting a bogey free weekend of 64-64. That is really impressive and vaults Watson up my rankings, because Bubba is always at his best mentally when he is comfortable with the course setup. Rose is as solid tee to green as anyone in the world, and that will be rewarded handsomely this week. He placed 6^th this past week at Pebble Beach and comes into the week in solid form. Top 15's in 2012 and 2013. Schwartzel is a guy who is probably flying under the radar. He is a major champion and has the type of steady game that is successful at Riviera. He's got the course history to boot, with top 5's at the Northern Trust in 2013 and 2014…he's also in great form coming off a victory in his native South Africa.
• 5.) Freddie Jacobsen: This may come as a surprise, but I debated placing Jacobsen as the #1 PP$ play this week. The only thing holding me back was his win %. At $7,900 on DraftKings, he doesn't have to win to make a difference, which makes him extremely valuable. Current form? T4, T4, 69, 5^th in his last four tournaments. Course History? T3 in 2013, and a razor sharp short game that separates him from many of the players in his salary tier. There's a lot to like here, and I won't be surprised if he is on the winner's team this week.