The Memorial Tournament Review
Another fantastic tournament in Dublin, Ohio this past weekend for the Memorial. This one finished in a playoff, which is happening at a staggering rate this season, and David Lingmerth outlasted Justin Rose. Both golfers hit some seriously clutch putts in an extremely entertaining finish. The majority of players in the Pin Seeker made the cut, but Daniel Berger and Justin Thomas were big disappointments, and I had way too many shares of them. Draftkings results weren't great for myself, with an ROI of -18%, but I did get 50 $20 tickets into the US Open Milly Maker at a nice 70% discount. Lets bounce back this week.
The St. Jude Classic Preview
This has to be one of the ugliest fields of the year, with the US Open at Chambers Bay next week. Players are withdrawing every hour it seems, so keep an eye on that before submitting your lineups. Accuracy of the tee with be huge this week, as no course on Tour collects more water balls than TPC Southwind. Two bigger name former champions are in the field, 2012 champ Dustin Johnson and 2013 winner Harris English. This is a very hard tournament to project, as the results have been a mixed bag over the years, and that coupled with the US Open wrinkle makes it even more difficult . For those reasons, and the wacky pricing on Draftkings, I won't be playing many cash games this week, focusing more on GPP and the Milly Maker qualifiers. Only 6 of the top 30 players are in the field, so finding value plays with a shot to win Sunday will be key.
Key Stats for TPC Southwind
The first key stat this week is old trusty, strokes gained tee to green. Only two of the last ten winners of the event have finished the year outside the top 100 in T2G. With so many drops occuring after water balls, I want players who are going to keep it in play before they reach the green. Dustin Johnson is 9th in T2G this season, and won't crack the picks segment, but is the betting favorite this week and stands to be in the mix almost certainly. Par 4 scoring is one stat that's been a proven commodity at Southwind, as eight of the past ten winners have finished the year in the top 50. I will be almost exclusively looking for value plays based on par 4 scoring and the next stat, Total Driving. Length isn't a neccesity, but it's still an advantage on this course, especially if the ball stays dry. Four of the past six winners have also been in the top 50 in strokes gained putting, so take a look at that as well.
Top Pin Seekers
Checks all the boxes this week, and has two top four finishes in his last 3 appearances here. Small price break from Dustin Johnson, although it's not needed with all the value, if you so choose. GPP Ownership guess: 10-15% Pivots: DJ & Harris English
Two top 10 finishes last two appearances here, and three straight top 20 finishes this year. Also top 20 in Strokes gained putting. GPP Ownership guess: 20-25% Pivots: DJ & Harris English
Koepkas' game is in great shape right now, if your forget his +6 this past Sunday. Also ranked 21st in strokes gained putting, and if I was playing cash games, I wouldn't hesitate using him. A win is coming.... GPP Ownership guess: 12-17% Pivots: Harris English & Webb Simpson
Middle Tee Plays
Shawn Stefani - $8,200 – great price point - 24th P4S, 21st TD & 36th SGP - 7th in 2013
Russell Knox $7,800 – 4th P4S & 24th T2G
Jason Bohn– DK $7,900 – good current form, good price – 4th P4S & 44th in T2G
Brendon De Jonge $7,600 - favorite play of the week - top 52 in all 4 key stats
GPP Dart Board Dreams
WIlliam McGirt - $7,000 – top 50 in P4S & T2G
Charles Howell III - $6,800 - 5 straight made cuts here, 35th T2G
Martin Laird - $7,500 - burned me this year, but the #'s say play him - top 40 in P4S, T2G & TD
Fade Phil Mickselson at $12,000, his price is a stay away for me, and his mind will solely be at Chambers Bay, and on finishing up his career grand slam.