PGA GPP Pin Seeker: 4-14-15

Masters Recap

I will keep this short and sweet, what can you even say about that performance from Jordan Spieth over the weekend at Augusta National? It was one of, if not the, most impressive performances I've ever seen on a golf course. At age 21, I think America has its new golf superstar. Every time it seemed that he might seem vulnerable, he came back throwing haymakers at a star studded leader board rabidly trying to chase him down. The list of records he broke was extremely remarkable, including being the only golfer to ever hit nineteen under par at any point of a Masters tournament. His short game was magical all week, as he led all golfers who made the cut in Strokes Gained putting (SGP) by a wide margin. All weekend it seemed like he made every big putt, so that stat only further proves it.

RBC Heritage Preview

This week's stop on the PGA Tour takes us to Hilton Head Island in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage. Harbour Town Golf Link at the Sea Pines Resort has been home to the tournament since its inception is 1969. It's routinely recognized as one of America's top courses, and is a favorite of many tour pros. In fact, in a survey of PGA tour pros it ranked second in preference behind Augusta National. After a grueling week at a major, most golfers are mentally fatigued and take the week off, but there are still some massive names competing this week, including the aforementioned newly crowned Masters Champion, Jordan Spieth. This is not a bombers paradise, precision shot making and a strong short game are the keys to success at Harbour Town. With some of the smallest greens on tour, scrambling in and around the greens to save pars will be imperative. The list of previous winners includes Matt Kuchar, Graeme McDowell, Brandt Snedeker and Jim Furyk; further outlining the kind of player who will have success this week. Historically, the weather plays a huge factor here, especially wind, so keep an eye on the forecast come Wednesday to help you make your lineup decisions.

Key Stats

The graph below shows the key stats I will be utilizing this week. Along with these key stats, always check Strokes Gained tee to green (SGT2G). All data used is from pgatour.com, and includes statistics compiled from the 2015 season. Also, make sure to incorporate current form and course history into your research.

I won't be focusing on any driving distance stats, I want players who are more accurate and don't rely on length. Seven of the past eleven winners have ranked in the top 30 in SGP, and this is the stat I'm focusing on the most, next to scrambling. The past six winners have all finished in the top 30 in scrambling. Finding players who are well rounded in at least three of these four stats will be making their way onto my lineups.

Top Pin Seekers

Patrick Reed

The Tour Villain, Patrick Reed, is a great cash game and GPP play this week. Coming off an uninspiring 22^nd place finish at the Masters, I think he is a lock to be in the mix come Sunday. With four wins in his young career, he has proven he can finish the job when given the chance. I'm hoping golf fans' general dislike for Reed keeps his ownership below 20%.

Matt Kuchar

Defending champion Matt Kuchar is another great cash game and GPP play this week. His price is modest, and key stats, with course history, point to another successful week at Harbour Town. He's also coming off a disappointing showing at Augusta, so hopefully he will be motivated to get back into contention on Sunday. I expect him to be highly owned in GPPs, but that doesn't mean you should fade him.

Brendan Todd

This is the perfect DFS storm of pricing meeting opportunity. Todd will be a cash game staple and a great GPP play as well. He should be priced north of $8k, so I will exploit this pricing discrepancy and use him accordingly. Personally, I will be hoping for low ownership in tournaments as he will be making it onto about forty to fifty percent of my teams.

Brandt Snedeker

The 2011 Champion is off to a great start this year. A notoriously solid putter, if his flat stick gets hot he could be hoisting the trophy come Sunday. A tied for 20th or better is a lock if he can keep the ball out of the trees that line Harbour Towns fairways.

Middle Tee Plays

Daniel Summerhays ($8,200) – 12^th in SGP, 22^nd P4S

Kevin Streelman ($8,000) – 18^th in DA% and 48^th in SCR – great current form

Martin Laird ($7,100) - 7^th SCR

Aaron Baddeley ($6,000) – great putter and great price – 3^rd in SGP

GPP Dart Board Dreams

Zac Blair ($4,700) – ranks top 30 in DA%, SGP, and SCR – price point is fantastic

Jerry Kelly ($5,800) – ranks 5^th in SCR and 34^th in DA%

Ben Martin ($6,200) – 38^th in DA% - T3 last year

Fades

I will be fading two of the bigger named, but overpriced, players this week. Zach Johnson ($10,900) is coming off a solid tied for ninth at Augusta, but I don't want any part of him at that price.I'm hoping his ownership is high, because the advanced stats don't point to him having a strong week. Another player I'm fading is Ian Poulter ($10,000), and it's not just because I can't stand the sight of him. He's ranked outside the top 50 in SGP, DA% and SCR. Combine that with his price tag, and he won't be making it on any of my teams. In the same price range, I prefer Snedeker, Kuchar and Bill Haas.