PGA GPP Tournament Picks: 4-22-15

PGA GPP Pin Seeker

Zurich Classic Preview

This week's stop on the PGA Tour takes us to the TPC Louisiana for the Zurich Classic. With the Match Play Championship next weekend, most of the worlds best are taking this week off in preparation. Five of the top 20 in the World Golf Rankings are in the field, making it very top heavy when you get past them.The TPC Louisiana is a classically weird Pete Dye design, with a ton of water and sand. That being said, it plays as one of the easiest stops on tour year to year, so expect to see a barrage of birdies. Any players who can avoid the hazards and allot themselves maximum birdie opportunities, will flourish. The winning score has historically been between -15 to -20, so I will be targeting players who can score and hit a lot of greens. I won't factor in course history as much as normal this week because of the easy layout, and the fact that so many first time winners have come through here.

Key Stats

The graph below shows the key stats I will be utilizing this week. All data used is from pgatour.com and includes statistics compiled from the 2015 season. Also, make sure to incorporate current form and course history into your research.

I want players who are going to make strokes up on the rest of the field before they get to these easy prey greens. Seven of the last eight winners here have finished in the top 50 in Proximity from 200+ yards. This is because every par 3 measures over 200 yards, and some of the par 4s will require a longer iron approach.The last four winners have all ranked in the top 50 in greens hit in regulation, and three of the last six have been top 50 in strokes gained tee to green.

Top Pin Seekers

DUSTIN JOHNSON

Aside from Jordan Spieth, nobody on the planet is more dialed right now than Dustin Johnson. He is the highest priced golfer on the board, but I think he has the most potential to blow the field out by overpowering this course. As well as the stats above, Johnson is high up there in par 5 scoring and eagles made per round, just the type of scoring player you want to target this week. It may seem like a chalk pick, but players like Jason Day, Justin Rose and Ricky Fowler are a bit cheaper and might be more highly owned in tournaments. GPP Ownership Guess – 20-25%

HARRIS ENGLISH

I was hoping his price would be in the $9,000-$10,000 range, but there's no denying Harris' skill set checks off all the boxes this week. He ranks top 50 in the three key stats, and also 29^th in par 5 scoring. For GPP purposes, I think Harris is the play if you want to differentiate yourself from higher owned players like Day and Rose (Although, I really like both of them as well). GPP Ownership Guess – 8-13%

BRENDAN STEELE

Steele is having himself a solid start for the 2015 season, and is primed to get a win sooner than later. He checks out in all the stats this week, and I think he will be under 10% owned in GPP's. GPP Ownership Guess – 7-12%

DANIEL BERGER

Berger might be my favorite play of the week, all things considered. He crushes every key stat, and is a scoring machine, ranking 12^th in par 5 scoring and 33^rd in par 3 scoring. I really hope he flies a bit under the radar, because I will have an overweight position on him this week. GPP Ownership Guess – 12-17%

Middle Tee Plays

Justin Thomas $8,400 – ranks 47^th in T2G - 5^th in P5S – good current form

Carlos Ortiz $7,300 – ranks 32^nd in 200+

Will Wilcox $7,200 – ranks 3^rd in 200+ - 7^th in GIR - 8^th in P3S

Martin Laird $7,500 – ranks 19^th in T2G - 39^th in 200+ - 11^th in GIR – 2^nd in P3S

GPP Dart Board Dreams

Lucas Glover $6,500 – ranked 12^th in T2G – 10^th in 200+

Aaron Baddeley $5,800 – 23^rd in 200+ - 21^st in P5S

Blake Adams $5,700 – 19^th in 200+ - T11 LW

Kyle Reifers $6,700 – 40^th T2G – 49^th P5S

Fades

The pricing on Draftkings is much more rigid this week, and there seems to be a very long list of players to fade who are grossly overpriced. Two of my bigger fades will be John Peterson and Charles Howell III. Local product Peterson seems to be a popular choice this week, and he's been practicing on TPC Louisiana for the last week, but his price of $8,900 is a total stay away for me. I prefer Sean O'Hair, Morgan Hoffman and Steele in the same price range.