PGA Pin Seeker 7-19-16

The RBC Canadian Open Preview

First off, what a ridiculous display of golf by Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson over the weekend. They were the only two golfers playing a totally different course, lapping a loaded field and giving golf fans a fantastic show on Sunday. It was really nice to see Stenson break through, like Dustin Johnson at the US Open, knocking on the door so many times before finally getting the job done at a major. This week the Tour heads across the pond for the Canadian Open at Glen Abbey, and don't be surprised to see the winning score similar to the -20 Stenson put up at the British Open. Defending champ Jason Day (-17) headlines a top heavy field that's definitely aided by the Team RBC contingent. The par 72 layout at Glen Abbey measures 7,273 yards and was Jack Nicklaus' first ever solo design, opening in 1976. The greens have been fully redone in the last couple years, and are now all Bentgrass, which is important to track who plays well on that type of grass. When using course history data this week, I will be referencing the last four Opens that have been played here in 2015, 2013, 2009 and 2008. There will be a ton of birdies and eagles made this week, as three of the four par 5's are easily reachable in two for the majority of the field at under 525 yards.

Key Stats for Glen Abbey

It's no surprise that par 5 scoring (P5S) leads off the key stats portion of the program, with par 5 crushers doing very well here over the years. Last year, Jason Day and Bubba Watson bludgeoned the par 5's, and also finished the season 1st and 7th respectively in P5S. You'll see that Colt Knost makes his way onto the picks later on, and his great price is only one reason. Over his last seven events, he has a very impressive P5S of -0.47, setting him up for potential success this week. Next, par 4 scoring (P4S) showed it's importance last year, as every player who finished inside the top 5 also finished the season inside the top 50 in P4S. Brandt Snedeker has a P4S average of -.20 in his two appearances at Glen Abbey, best of anyone in the field. (via Fantasy Golf Metrics). Finally, with scoring being king this week, birdie or better percentage (BoB%) takes extra importance. Dustin Johnson, Emiliano Grillo and Tony Finau all made the picks this week, and all own BoB% of over 29% at Glen Abbey. Some secondary stats I looked at for this week were Eagle average and strokes gained around the green.

Top Pin Seekers

Dustin Johnson

This isn't the week to get cute at the top, I like all four of the top priced players and won't be fading any of them in GPP's, with so much good value at the bottom. DJ is crushing it, and hopefully will be motivated this week even with the PGA Championship looming next week at Baltusrol. $3 GPP Ownership Guess: 20-25%

Jason Day

The defending champ comes in good form, with four top 10's in his last six starts with no finish outside the top 30. 8th in eagle average $3 GPP Ownership Guess: 22-27%

Matt Kuchar

In great form, and 7th and 2nd place finishes his last two at Glen Abbey. 30th in SG:AG $3 GPP Ownership Guess: 20-25%

Brandt Snedeker

Love Sneds this week, and hoping his ownership will be low with Kuchar and Furyk close in price. In good form, and has a win and a 5th at Glen Abbey. BoB% of 27.8% at Glen Abbey $3 GPP Ownership Guess: 7-12%

Middle Tee Plays

Tony Finau - DK Salary $9,300 - loves the Bentgrass greens, in good form, 22nd here in 2015 - top 60 in P4S, P5S & eagle average

Adam Hadwin - DK Salary $8,700 - my best bet for top Canadian, 7th in 2015 - top 50 in P5S & BoB%

Jon Rahm - DK Salary $8,600 - made cut in all PGA Tour starts, making a lot of birdies - BoB% 21.4 in last four starts

Emiliano Grillo - DK Salary $8,500 - in great form with back to back t15's, 22nd in 2015 - BoB% of 30.6 in 2015

Kevin Kisner - DK Salary $8,300 - playing a lot better, like the price for the upside - top 45 in eagle average, P4S & BoB%

Ryan Palmer - DK Salary $8,000 - four straight made cuts here, in decent form - top 20 in P5S, BoB% & eagle average

Harold Varner - DK Salary $7,800 - in good form with 8 straight made cuts, three of them top 10's - top 50 in P5S, BoB% & eagle average

Jimmy Walker - DK Salary $7,700 - hunch play here, priced too low - top 40 in eagle average, P5S, BoB% & SG:AG

William McGirt - DK Salary $7,700 - in good form, 2nd in 2013 - 17th P4S

Ben Martin - DK Salary $7,500 - in good form, very good Bentgrass player - top 50 in eagle average, P4S, P5S & BoB%

GPP Dart Board Dreams

Kyung-Tae Kim - DK Salary $7,400 - seven wins on Asian Tour recently, good flyer that not many people will be on

Andrew Loupe - DK Salary $7,200 - GPP play only, not in good form but great stats give me reason to give him a shot - top 15 P5S, BoB% & eagle average

Colt Knost - DK Salary $7,100 - way underpriced, auto cash game play for me - three top 5's in last six starts - top 50 in P4S & P5S

Daniel Summerhays - DK Salary $7,000 - in good form, 11th in 2013 - top 40 in eagle average, BoB% & P5S

Tim Wilkinson - DK Salary $7,000 - 22nd in 2015 - 12th P4S

Matt Fitzpatrick - DK Salary $6,800 - egregiously underpriced, huge talent with winning upside, not in great form last three starts

Si-Woo Kim - DK Salary $6,700 - lost in Barbasol playoff, made two straight cuts - top 40 P4S, SG:AG & P5S

Morgan Hoffman - DK Salary $6,700 - in good form - top 25 in P5S & eagle average

Luke List - DK Salary $6,600 - in good form and 21st in 2013 - top 50 P4S & P5S