PGA Pin Seeker 2-10-16

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview

The Pin Seeker is back from a prolonged hiatus, but it's great to be back at Pebble Beach for some DFS golf. This is definitely a weirder tournament than most, and I'm not talking about Bill Murray's annual antics. The first three rounds are played at three different courses, with each player playing each once before the cut. This is big for fantasy purposes, as each golfer is guaranteed 54 holes, even the bad ones. The three courses are Pebble Beach, which will also host the final round on Sunday, Spyglass Hill and Monterrey Country Club. For more in depth analysis of the three courses and their nuances, I highly recommend you read BJ's 'The First Tee 'preview. All three tracks come in at under 7,000 yards, but that's a bit misleading because bombers have done very well here in the past. A mix of length off the tee and a strong short game, especially wedges under 125 yards, is the perfect combination to excel here. There are a ton of birdies to be made this week, but avoiding the trouble will be key, especially if it gets windy (expected winds are highest on Saturday, but it's too early to make any determination).

The Field

This is the most loaded field we've seen so far this year, with six of the top ten golfers in the world in attendance. It's a top heavy field, where I expect one of the top 5-10 players in the field to take home the crown. Defending champion Brandt Snedeker is in the field, and is in great form with a win at Torrey Pines two weeks ago. Unfortunately, a lot of the television coverage will be spent analyzing the swings of celebrity golfers, so if that's your sort of thing, be sure to tune in all weekend.

Key Stats

It's tough to nail down three key stats that fit all three different courses, but I did find some stats that have consistently been indicative of success at this event. Driving Distance isn't totally necessary here, as all three courses are short, but the fairways are some of the easiest to hit on tour, and length has helped many past winners. Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, and Jimmy Walker are all recent winners here who have bombed their way to the title. In 2014, Walker and Johnson finished 1-2 and also in the top 20 that year in DD. Then you look at Brandt Snedeker, who's won this event twice in the last five years, both times finishing outside the top 100 in that season in DD. What Brandt did well those years was simple, he was lights out inside 125 yards and around the greens. Scrambling (SCR) and Proximity from 50-125 yards (50-125) are two very key stats this week. Snedeker finished inside the top 35 in both stats in both years that he won. In 2013 alone, every player that finished T3 or better was in the top 60 in 50-125 to finish that season. Finally, par 5 scoring (P5S) and par 4 scoring (P5S) round out my key stats. With every golfer being guaranteed at least 54 holes, I want players who are going to score well early and often. The last four years at this tournament, the winner has finished that season inside the top 30 in P5S. In the last three tournaments, each golfer that finished first or second also finished that season inside the top 30 in P4S. If you're looking for some tie-breaker stats to decide between players, strokes gained putting, birdie or better percentage, and strokes gained tee to green have all been predictive to success here in the past.

Top Pin Seekers

Jordan Spieth

Surprise, surprise, I like the #1 golfer in the world this week. I just think he's going to slaughter the easier courses, and he actually has a scoring average of 68 at the supposed harder of the three courses, Spyglass Hill. GPP Ownership Guess - 15-20%

Jimmy Walker

I really like Dustin Johnson as well at $11,400, but Walker is in fantastic form right now and has a ridiculous track record at this tournament. His worst finish this season is a 13th, with two top tens as well. In his last five appearances here, he has a win and three other top 10's. His average round at Pebble Beach is 67.60, best in the field. GPP Ownership Guess: 10-15%

JB Holmes

Holmes is on fire right now, with back to back top six finishes. He finished 10th here last year, and his mix of length off the tee and good wedge play is exactly what I'm looking for this week, hopefully he will fly under the radar. GPP Ownership Guess: 5-10%

Patrick Reed

Reed is going to make a lot of birdies this week, and his 69.33 scoring average at Spyglass is one of the best in the field. Also 24th in P5S. GPP Ownership Guess: 15-20%

Kevin Na - DK Salary $9,200 - good form, two top 5's here in last four starts - 6th P4S & 7th SCR

Shane Lowry - DK Salary $8,900 - Great form, will excel if it gets windy

Ryan Moore - DK Salary $8,600 - good form, 11th last week - great price - 9th P4S

David Lingmerth - DK Salary $8,300 - great price - top 60 in P4S, SCR, P5S & 50-125

Bill Haas - DK Salary $8,200 - I don't understand his price, would have expected him to be much higher - dominates California tracks - top 43 in SCR, P4S & P5S

Hunter Mahan - DK Salary $7,800 - four top 16's in last five here, including a 2nd & 6th - 14th P4S

Matt Jones - DK Salary $7,800 - 7th here last year - 22nd DD

GPP Dart Board Dreams

Russell Henley - DK Salary $7,600 - top 40 in SCR, P4S & DD

Daniel Summerhays - DK Salary $7,500 - favorite value play of the week - 12th P5S

James Hahn - DK Salary $7,500 - good form, 3rd here in 2013 - top 65 in DD & P5S

Will Wilcox - DK Salary $7,500 - will be popular in GPP - top 60 in DD, SCR & P4S

Will McGirt - DK Salary $7,400 - top 35 in P4S & P5S

Sean O'Hair - DK Salary $7,100 - Eight straight made cuts here - top 30 in SCR, P4S, DD & P5S

Bud Cauley - DK Salary $6,600 - two straight top 25's - 16th P5S