PGA Pin Seeker 2-17-16

The Northern Trust Open Preview

We are off to Hollywood this week, and back to some normal television coverage and the same course for four days straight. The site is beautiful Riviera CC, and the common theme will be that this is "Player X's favorite track on tour.' Lots of players do call this one of their favorite stops on tour, and it's probably why the field is so loaded this week. Riviera is a par 71 that measures 7,322 yards and will test every club in the bag. It was the 5th hardest course on tour scoring average wise last year, and if one facet of you're game is struggling, this course will expose it. For this reason, I weighed current form even more than I normally do this week, and although I do think course history has importance here, I won't be taking too many players who have struggled to start the season. There are many European players making their PGA Tour debuts this week, and the three to keep a close eye on are Rory McIlroy, Charl Schwartzel and Bernd Wiesberger. I expect all three to play well this week, but the price tag for Rory on Draftkings ($13,200) might scare me off. Defending champ James Hahn is in the field, as well as the two men he beat in that playoff, Paul Casey and Dustin Johnson. The drivable par 4 10th hole at Riviera gets a lot of attention, but there are three holes that will probably make or break a lot of fortunes this week. Holes 8, 9 and 12 are all long par 4's and have one thing in common, they're very difficult. All three ranked in the top 50 toughest holes on the tour last year, with the 12th ranking 15th toughest. Playing these holes at even par would go a long way to success this weekend.

Key Stats for Riviera Country Club

As I mentioned above, current form played a huge role in my decision making this week. As far a stats are concerned, I identified three key stats and a couple secondary ones I feel will be predictive to success at Riviera. Driving Distance (DD) and strokes gained tee to green (T2G) were the two single most important stats for me this week. The only outlier here over the years was 2013 winner John Merrick. It's not a surprise Dustin Johnson has been runner up here the last two years, where he finished both seasons in the top 2 in DD and top 10 in T2G. Bubba Watson was the champion in 2014, the same year he finished 1st in DD and 7th in T2G. Over the the years, the top 10 has been littered with players who bomb it off the tee and have strong tee to green stats. With this being one of the harder courses on tour, birdies aren't as easy to come by, so players who rank highly in birdie or better percentage (BoB%) are high on my list this week. Finally, par 5 scoring (P5S) and par 4 scoring (P4S) round out the key stats. From 2010 to 2015, four champions of this event finished their respective season inside the top 10 in par 4 scoring. Over the same time span, four winners also finished their respective seasons inside the top 50 in par 5 scoring.

Jordan Spieth

Spieth and Rory are priced way above the rest of the top tier, and I'm glad to see it. You''ll need to play 4-5 super value guys in order to fit them in, which should keep their ownership numbers down. He got off to a slow start at Pebble Beach last week but I loved seeing his Sunday 67 to finish the week off. He's on record saying Riviera CC is probably the course he has the most experience on of any on the PGA Tour schedule. 12th and 4th in two appearances here. 8th in P5S and 1st in BoB% GPP Ownership Guess: 12-17%

Dustin Johnson

DJ is another player, the list is long, who loves the friendly confines of Riviera. Great track record here with four top 5 finishes in his last six appearances. GPP Onwership Guess: 15-20%

JB Holmes

JB Is playing some great golf right now with an 11th and two sixth place finishes in his last three starts. Has made seven of eight cuts here, with four top ten finishes. His ownership is tough to predict, but I'm hoping he will be ignored by the masses. GPP Ownership Guess: 5-10%

Charl Schwartzel

Speaking of golfers who are hot fire right, Charl might burn the course down this weekend. His last four events worldwide include four top tens and two wins, and he's got a solid track record at Riviera with three straight made cuts and two top five finishes. GPP Ownership Guess 7-12%

Middle Tee Plays

Adam Scott - DK Salary $9,500 – good track record here, supreme T2G game will excel – top 10 in DD, P5S, BoB% & T2G

Bill Haas - DK Salary $9,200 – in great form, past champion in 2012 – 9^th P4S

Paul Casey - DK Salary $8,900 – 2^nd here last year – 9^th P4S

Matt Kuchar - DK Salary $8,600 – should be priced much higher, made 7/8 cuts here – 2^nd P5S

Harris English - DK Salary $8,100 – great track record here and solid current form – top 40 DD & T2G

Kevin Na - DK Salary $8,000 – big price drop after last weeks poor showing, have a short memory here – 10^th T2G & 9^th P4S

Jason Dufner - DK Salary $7,800 – another price drop and some solid value with upside here – three straight made cuts here – top 22 in T2G, P5S, BoB% & P4S

Matt Jones - DK Salary $7,700 – good form and three straight cuts made here – top 50 DD & BoB%

Charles Howell III - DK Salary $7,600 – solid form – top 30 DD, P4S & P5S

GPP Dart Board Dreams

Smylie Kaufman - DK Salary $7,400 – top 25 in ¾ starts – top 35 T2G, P5S & BoB%

Marc Leishman - DK Salary $7,300 – good price for skillset/upside – top 35 DD & BoB%

Patrick Rodgers - DK Salary $7,300 – going to breakthrough soon, so much talent – top 50 DD, T2G, P5S, P4S & BoB%

Patton Kizzire - DK Salary $7,200 – three straight made cuts – top 60 T2G, P5S & BoB%

Jamie Lovemark - DK Salary $7,200 – local boy, two top 10 in last four starts – 10^th DD & 47^th T2G

Si Woo Kim - DK Salary $7,100 – favorite value play, great form with five straight made cuts – 35^th P5S

KJ Choi - DK Salary $7,100 – great course history, but will be a very popular play

Cameron Tringale - DK Salary $7,000 – five straight made cuts here with four top 25's – top 40 P5S & BoB%

Charley Hoffman - DK Salary $6,900 – expecting him to round into form and resemble the player he was last year, won't be at this price for much longer

Matt Every - DK Salary $6,500 - hold your nose, this is a serious punt play but there is upside at this price - three straight made cuts here with a 6th in 2014