PGA Pin Seeker 3-16-16

The Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview

The Florida swing hits the most iconic event on the schedule for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club & Lodge. Bay Hill is a par 72 that plays to 7,419 yards in length, with all four of the par 3's measuring over 200 yards. Long iron precision will be very key at this course, as over 36% of all approach shots will be over 200 yards (via FG Metrics). Two time defending champion Matt Every is in the field, and although his price isn't overly excessive ($7,500), it seems like most experts around the industry are low on him this week. That's probably in part because he's missed the cut in three of his last five events, but did make the cut this past week at the Valspar. The rest of the field is pretty loaded this week, with eighteen of the top 30 in the Fed Ex Cup standing in attendance, including the top three, Adam Scott, Kevin Kisner and Brandt Snedeker. Five of the top ten players in the world are also at Bay Hill, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Henrik Stenson and Justin Rose are joining the aforementioned Scott in hopes of honing their games before the trip to Augusta National in April. An interesting story this week is amateur Maverick McNealy, who is one of the best amateur golfers in the world on top of having an awesome name. He qualified for this event by participating in the Arnold Palmer CUp last year, and was voted by his peers there as the golfer who best exemplified the 'Arnold Palmer legacy.' He's an interesting play on Draftkings at $6,200, with the better than normal chance at making the cut this week with the smaller invitational size field. He's made the cut in two of his three previous PGA Tour starts, and his 69.05 stroke average average last year was the second best in NCAA golf history.

Key Stats for Bay Hill

There isn't a particular skill set of player that really stands out here, but there were definitely a few key stats that stuck out to me. Birdie or better percentage (BoB%) is the stat I weighed the heaviest this week, as Matt Every is the only anomaly the last two years. Aside from him, every other player who's finished inside the top 3 in the final standings, also finished the season inside the top 25 in BoB%. There is a ton of danger on this course, with water everywhere, but there are also a lot of birdies to be made. Last year, there were 16 players alone that finished the tournament at -10 or better. Next up, proximity to the hole from greater than 200 yards (200+), with so many shots coming from that range as I mentioned earlier. Finally, par 5 scoring (P5S) will be key this week, as all four are reachable in two for the medium to longer hitters. The top 5 has been littered with players who crush par 5's the last 4-5 years, and also take a look at eagle average, as there will be many of them this week.

Top Pin Seekers

Rory McIlroy

Everyone will focus on the Sunday struggle at the Honda, but he's very close to having one of those weeks where he laps the field. 11th here last year & top 10 in T2G & P4S Expected Ownership $3 GPP - 10-15%

Adam Scott

Nobody is hotter right now, fade at your own risk. I don't think he will win this week, but a top 10 is a mortal lock the way he's swinging it. 1st in T2G Expected Ownership $3 GPP - 15-20%

Justin Rose

My pick to win it this week, there's a lot to like about his chances, and he's flying under the radar as per usual. Two top 3 finishes in his last four appearances here, 10th in T2G Expected Ownership $3 GPP - 5-10%

Middle Tee Plays

Matt Kuchar - DK Salary $9,400 - in great form, Mr. Consistency - top 45 in T2G, BoB%, P5S & 200+

Kevin Kisner - DK Salary $8,900 - great price, cash game lock for me - top 10 in BoB% & P5S

Marc Leishman - DK Salary $8,500 - another great price, in good form - top 30 in P5S, T2G & BoB%

Zach Johnson - DK Salary $8,300 - favorite $ play of the week, five straight made cuts here & 9th last year - top 50 in 200+ & P5S

Byeong Hun-An - DK Salary $8,100 - ownership will be around 2-3%, supremely talented

Charles Howell III - DK Salary $8,000 - made last 10/11 cuts here, gained 2.6 strokes tee to green on average at Bay Hill per 4 rounds - 25th P5S

Matt Jones - DK Salary $7,900 - 3rd last year - 33rd in BoB%

Gary Woodland - DK Salary $7,700 - four straight made cuts here, price should be in the mid 8000's - 18th P5S & 14th T2G

William McGirt - DK Salary $7,700 - 4/5 cuts made here - top 35 in P5S, T2G & BoB%

David Lingmerth - DK Salary $7,600 - 3/3 cuts made here - 22nd BoB%

GPP Dart Board Dreams

Thomas Pieters - DK Salary $7,600 - 3rd last week, very talented Euro who will have ownership around 2-4%

Luke Donald - DK Salary $7,400 - back to the well this week, price dropped $900 from last week - 42nd T2G

Smylie Kaufman - DK Salary $7,300 - in great form with an 8th at the Honda - top 35 in P5S, T2G & BoB%

Francesco Molinari - DK Salary $7,200 - don't let the missed cut last week keep you away, 5th here in 2014 - 18th in P5S

Ben Martin - DK Salary $7,000 - 5th here last year, plays better on the Bermuda grass - top 50 in BoB% & 200+

Kiradech Aphibarnrat - DK Salary $6,700 - best 'Cafe Value" on our slick lineup optimizer, 6th here last year

Will Wilcox - DK Salary $6,600 - gave the full SEND on twitter, game is rounding into form and a great price - 29th in 200+

Patrick Rodgers - DK Salary $6,600 - ownership will be around 2%, will attack the par 5's - top 40 in P5S, T2G & BoB%

Vaughn Taylor - DK Salary $6,500 - made last 5/6 cuts here - top 35 in T2G, 200+ & BoB%