PGA Pin Seeker 6-14-16

The US Open Preview

Oakmont Country Club in Oakmont, Pennsylvania is the host of the 116th US Open. For a more in depth look and some strategy Q&A, check out BJ's article where we answer some Draftkings Millionaire Maker strategy questions and give a preview of the course. We go from TPC Southwind where there is a ton of water to Oakmont where there is no water and not many trees, but with its own way of punishing players. The par 70 layout measuring just over 7,200 yards doesn't sound daunting, but the cut after two rounds in 2007 here was +10! The same conditions are expected this year, so big numbers will be lurking on almost every hole. The field is loaded this week with the games best, and Oakmont will really test every club in the bag.

Key Stats for Oakmont CC

Oakmont is a beast, and with the last US Open here being in 2007, we don't have a ton of data to use when identifying stats. I took a look at that US Open, and the last ten US Opens to find any correlations I could, as the USGA likes to set each different course up under the same parameters. Those guidelines almost always include punishing rough and lightning quick greens, and this week is no different. For that reason, I will also be heavily weighing US Open history into my decision making process. Par 4 Scoring (P4S) will be very key this week, as it was in 2007, when three of the top four also finished that year in the top 25 in P4S. Over the past ten US Opens, Rory McIlroy has the best P4S average of anyone in the field who has at least two starts. Next, strokes gained approach (SGA) is the next key stat I identified, wanting to target players who will hit the greens and actually give themselves a shot at birdies or easy pars. This stat is new, so there isn't any data on it long term, but I think it will be imperative this week. Finally, birdie or better percentage (BoB%) is the final key stat, with the expected low Draftkings scoring, every birdie made will have such a giant impact on the standings. Another reason I really like JB Holmes this week is his BoB% in his five US Opens is a very elite 16.7%, and he's making a lot of birdies lately as well at a 25.6% clip over his last five events. Some secondary stats I looked at as well were strokes gained around the green (SG:AG) and bogey avoidance (BA). Now, onto the picks!

Top Pin Seekers

Rory McIlroy

If you're trying to be contrarian from the Super Chalk Jason Day, Rory is the way to go. He lapped the field at Congressional to win his first US Open under very tough conditions, and has three top 10's in seven Opens. Has the 4th best P4S average in the field at US Opens in his seven starts. Milly Maker Ownership percentage guess: 7-12%

Dustin Johnson

I was hoping DJ's price would keep people off him, but it seems like he will be a very popular play this week. He's in fantastic form right now, and like I said in BJ's article, if he can just avoid the big number and stay out of his own way, I wouldn't be surprised to see him win. Milly Maker Ownership percentage guess: 12-17%

Hideki Matsuyama

Hideki-Bot checks a lot of the statistical boxes this week, as he normally does, but one you might not think of is his prowess on fast greens. Not only does he love putting on poa-annua, he's gained almost 2 strokes total on the field since 2013 in events when the stimpmeter is over 12 (Via FutureOfFantasy). Milly Maker Ownership percentage guess: 8-13%

Middle Tee Plays

Henrik Stenson - DK Salary $9,100 - in great form, great price, made six straight US Open cuts with two top 10's - 2nd in SG:A & 13th in BoB%

Branden Grace - DK Salary $8,700 - great price, 4th at last years US Open - top 50 in P4S, SGA & BA

Matt Kuchar - DK Salary $8,500 - will be mega chalk like Day, but in great form with four straight top 6's, great US Open track record - top 15 in P4S, BoB% & BA

Patrick Reed - DK Salary $8,400 - I'm guaranteeing a top 15 from Reed this week, all the stars are aligning, in great form and solid US Open history - top 40 in P4S, BoB% & SG:AG

Louis Oosthuizen - DK Salary $8,200 - nobody will be on him this year, has two top 10's in his last five US Opens

Brooks Koepka - DK Salary $8,100 - back to back runner up finishes, great short game will play well here - good US Open track record - top 20 in P4S & BoB%

Brandt Snedeker - DK Salary $8,000 - fantastic US Open track record - top 40 in P4S & BoB%

Russell Knox - DK Salary $7,600 - in great form, solid scrambling will play well here - top 45 in BoB%, P4S & BA

Charl Schwarztel - DK Salary $7,500 - best price play of the week, in great form, good US open track record - top 25 in key stats

JB Holmes - DK Salary $7,400 - good form and two straight top 30's at US Open - top 35 in P4S & BoB%

Matt Fitzpatrick - DK Salary $7,300 - up and coming star on the Euro circuit, win in his last start , very accurate

Daniel Berger - DK Salary $7,200 - coming off of his first win, don't shy away, 28th in only US Open - top 25 in key stats

GPP Dart Board Dreams

Kevin Chappell - DK Salary $7,100 - great form, and solid US Open history with no MC and two top 10's - top 50 in key stats

Emiliano Grillo - DK Salary $6,900 - in good form, accuracy off the tee will really help him this week - top 50 in P4S & BoB%

Rafa-Cabrera Bello - DK Salary $6,800 - in good form, first US Open but his skill set should play well here

Charley Hoffman - DK Salary $6,700 - in good form, good price and can make birdies when they'll be scarce

William Mcgirt - DK Salary $6,700 - in great form, with a win in his last start - top 35 in P4S & SG:A

Retief Goosen - DK Salary $6,300 - former US Open multiple champ, in great form, great short game will be key - 7th SG:AG

David Toms - DK Salary $6,300 - 5th here in 2007, in good form right now - top 50 in SG:AG, SG:A, P4S & BA

Anirban Lahiri - DK Salary $6,100 - in good form and great price - top 35 in BoB% & P4S