The PGA Championship Preview

Baltusrol Golf Club in Springfield, NJ is the host for this years final major, the PGA Championship. The par 70 track is an absolute BEAST, measuring at 7,462 yards. There are only two par 5's in play, the 17th and 18th holes, and they certainly aren't auto birdies. The 17th is 649 yards, so nobody will be getting home there in two outside of a miracle. This is the second time Baltusrol will host the PGA, with the first being in 2005 where Phil Mickelson etched his name onto the Wannamaker Trophy.

As always at a major, the field is stacked with the top players in the game. Forty nine of the top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings are here, the only omission being Charles Howell III due to a medical issue. There has been severe rain in the area lately, and more in the forecast for Friday and Saturday, so keep an eye on the weather Wednesday night as there may be an advantage for certain tee times. With the expected soft conditions, longer hitters will see an even greater advantage.

Key Stats for Baltusrol Golf Club

Par 4 Scoring (P4S) is going to be huge this week, with tough birdies on the par 5's, and tough par 3's, players will need to be making birdies on the par 4's. It's another reason why I like Dustin Johnson, Gary Woodland, Henrik Stenson and Tyrrell Hatton this week. All four are in the 15 in the field in P4S average over the last three months ( via Fantasy Golf Metrics). Driving distance (DD) is the next key stat, and the one I'm weighing the heaviest this week when making lineup decisions. With the expected soft conditions, and ridiculous length of some of the holes, bombers who can also keep it on the short grass will have a massive edge. Over the last three months , DJ, J.B. Holmes and Tony Finau are the top 3 in the field in average drive distance off the tee. Finally, birdie or better percentage (BoB%) makes its regular appearance in the key stats section. Birdies will be at a premium this week, as I expect the winning score to be around -8. In his last four events, Sergio Garcia has the highest BoB% in the field at 25.6%.

Top Pin Seekers

Jason Day

DK Salary P4S DD BoB%
11,700 10 14 5

With the soft pricing, I will not be fading the top of the board this week. Day has been overshadowed a bit by DJ's recent dominance, but his game is still in great form. 23.6% BoB at his six PGAs (via Fantasy Golf Metrics) DraftKings Milly Maker Ownership Guess: 20-25%

Dustin Johnson

DK Salary P4S DD BoB%
11,600 1 1 1

Leads the tour in three key stats, and is in the best form. Hasn't finished outside of the top 10 in his last six starts DraftKings Milly Maker Ownership Guess: 27-32%

Rory McIlroy

DK Salary P4S DD BoB%
11,400 16 13 2

Rory is in great form right now, with five top 5's in his last seven starts. Hasn't won a major in awhile and seems highly motivated to get another one DraftKings Milly Maker Ownership Guess: 12-17%

Justin Rose

DK Salary P4S DD BoB%
9,800 85 19 31

Rose will go overlooked like he always does, but he's in good form and there are no issues with his back anymore. 22nd at the British even though he had the bad weather draw DraftKings Milly Maker Ownership Guess: 3-8%

Middle Tee Plays

Sergio Garcia - DK Salary $9,400 - red hot form, with four straight top 5's, including a win - top 30 in DD & BoB%

Rickie Fowler - DK Salary $9,200 - don't overlook Rickie, great price, rounding into form - top 35 in three key stats

Bubba Watson - DK Salary $9,000 - in good form, course sets up great playing soft and with his right to left ball flight - top 15 in BoB% & DD

Hideki Matsuyama - DK Salary $8,800 - in bad form, ownership will be down, perfect GPP play - career 25.6% BoB% at PGA's - 6th in BoB%

Matt Kuchar - DK Salary $8,600 - in great form, 6/8 top 10's recently - top 25 in P4S & BoB%

Patrick Reed - DK Salary $8,100 - great price, in good form with back to back top 12's - 3rd SG:AG

Branden Grace - DK Salary $8,000 - in good form, forget the weekend at the British - 27th in P4S

Brooks Koepka - DK Salary $7,800 - ankle isn't 100%, but ownership will be down and course fits him perfectly, keep an eye on his status Wednesday - top 15 three key stats

J.B. Holmes - DK Salary $7,700 - in great form with a 3rd at the British - top 15 in DD & BoB%

Scott Piercy - DK Salary $7,400 - forget the British fail, had back to back 2nd's before that - 35th in DD

Charl Schwartzel - DK Salary $7,300 - egregiously under priced, in great form - top 30 in P4S & BoB%

GPP Dart Board Dreams

Steve Stricker - DK Salary $7,000 - hasn't missed a cut in his last 21 major! - in great form - top 15 in SG:AG & P4S

Tony Finau - DK Salary $6,900 - loves the Bentgrass greens, crushing it off the tee - 3rd in DD

Kevin Na - DK Salary $6,700 - in great form, short game translates well on tough to hit greens - top 50 in P4S, SG:AG & BoB%

Kevin Chappell - DK Salary $6,700 - par 70 specialist, in good form - top 50 in P4S & SG:AG

Gary Woodland - DK Salary $6,700 - in great form - top 30 in DD, P4S & SG:AG

Tyrrell Hatton - DK Salary $6,600 - super low ownership, in great form on Euro Tour

Andy Sullivan - DK Salary $6,100 - another egregiously low price, in great form, worst finish in last five starts is T23

Brendan Steele - DK Salary $6,000 - top 50 in DD & SG:AG - 2nd best COLOSSUS Optimizer Value

No comments.