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With the RBC Heritage in the books, I'm going to go over my basic GPP strategy that I've been using the past few weeks. I've started out with a modest bankroll for golf ($200) and have built it up over $300 the past two tournaments. Once I get a larger sample size to work with, I will start entering the larger buy-in tournaments and increase my exposure each week by a significant amount. The strategy I'm implementing, for the most part, isn't anything groundbreaking or out of the ordinary. What it is though, is a very organized and efficient want to maximize exposure to the players that I really like, and that hit on my keys stats research for the week. Below are my results for the twenty lineups I entered on Draftkings in the $3 RBC Heritage GPP.
Going into the final round, I was sitting at well over $200 and cashing with 15/20 entries. Unfortunately, I had no exposure to Jim Furyk, and he decided to go out and shoot a 63, while gaining 3.9 strokes putting on the field on Sunday to win. Ordinarily, you can't be unhappy with a 69% ROI, but Furyk has burned me so many times this year choking away leads on the weekend, that it was frustrating. He also hadn't mixed in a victory on tour in almost five years, and his reaction after holing out a birdie in the playoff was as real as you'll get in sports. On the bright side, a few players I wrote up last week had exceptional weeks. My favorite play of the week, based on stats and price, was Brendon Todd, and he didn't disappoint. After a disappointing opening round 73, he went 66-63-67 the next three days to finish in fourth place. Not all my recommended plays panned out, as Patrick Reed dreadfully missed the cut.
The strategy I've been using for these GPPs is applicable in any DFS format, but with golf there are some unique variables. When playing as many lineups as I did last week, the key thing to do is track your exposure you have to each player, by using spreadsheets, pen and paper etc.This will make it easier for you to adjust exposures as you go, because we all love to tinker lineups. When you've decided on your core group of players you want to target, the next step is a leap of faith in projecting each player's respective ownership. This is a skill that you develop over time, and will probably never master because of so many variables. What you can do though, is become very good at predicting a golfer's ownership within 5-10%. I'll refer back to Todd and Reed to illustrate how this works.
Once you've made your guesses on ownership, you need to decide how much overweight relative to the field you want in a player. If you really, really like a player, as I did with Brendon Todd last week, you'll want to own him more than the field. I predicted his ownership would be around 18-20%, but it actually ended up being 12.9%, which was great news for me. I went a little bit overboard on my overweight position with Todd, rostering him in 60% of my lineups (12/20). This is not something I would normally do, because if he misses the cut, 60% of my lineups are essentially dead. The reason I took such an aggressive position on him was because his price was very depressed, and his skill set aligned beautifully for Harbour Town. The difference with golf, compared to say football, is that it's not matchup driven, so choosing players to pair with each other isn't as predictable. I happened to also take an overweight position on Patrick Reed, and that didn't work out. I predicted his ownership to be around 25%, and it ended up being 19.4%.Good, right? Well so I thought, and decided to take Reed in 30% of my lineups (6/20). This overweight position I created for myself backfired, and doomed most of my lineups that had Reed exposure. Finally, if you want to fade a player properly, you'll want less exposure to him than the rest of the field, opposite of what I did with Todd and Reed.