PGA The First Tee: Honda Classic

Recap

It was another week of perfect weather and another week where if you picked the right golfer then you would've had a solid week. Unfortunately, for me, I was down to picking between Ollie and Cantlay for the final spot. I decided to go with Ollie because I felt that I've chosen enough “low owned" players where if I went with Ollie (being the most popular of the two) then I would be ok. The stat that I overlooked was driving distance and it was clear that Cantlay was the choice between the two since Riviera was playing long. Therefore, we enforce bankroll management and look back at your choices and see if you need to tweak any changes to your process.

This Week

We are headed over to the east side of United States after being on the west coast since the beginning of January. This week we are in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida for the Honda Classic. The course is called PGA National Golf Club. It's a Par 70, 7,140 yards. Tiger is once again playing, which is a good sign for his health. It will be another tough test for him this week, as it's wide open, there's a lot of water, and it's usually windy. Hopefully, Tiger has found something with his driver. For stats this week, I'm going to change it up a bit. I'm still looking at B.O.B. %; SG: Around the Green; SG: Par 4 scoring; and SG: Par 5 scoring. The stats that will be slightly different moving forward are Ball Striking and Driving Distance.

Cash Plays

Sergio Garcia ($10,500) – Garcia is coming off a similar start to what he had last year. He's coming off with a win in Singapore and a top 35 finish at the Dubai Desert Classic. He has good course history here as well. He has made 4 straight cuts here in the last 4 years including a 2^nd place finish in 2016. For stats, he's 10^th in the field for Ball Striking; 18^th in the field for SG: Par 4 Scoring; and 36^th in the field for Driving Distance. By the way, he's going to be a father for the first time this year. So, there's that too.

Gary Woodland ($9,700) – Woodland has a very good 2018 season. He already has a win at the Waste Management, with a few top 20s before that, and a missed cut at the AT&T Pro-Am. Just like Garcia, Woodland has good course history. He has made 3 cuts out of 3 starts here in the last 5 years. For stats, he's first 1^st in the field for SG: Par 4 Scoring; 1^st in the field for B.O.B.%; and 3^rd in the field for Ball Striking.

Chesson Hadley ($7,700) – Hadley is becoming a DFS darling. He hasn't missed a cut yet this season. He has finished 5^th a couple of weeks at the Waste Management. He's made 2 cuts of 3 starts here. In both times he made the cut, he finished in the top 25 in both starts. For stats, he's 1^st in the field for Ball Striking; 5^th in the field for B.O.B.%; and 16^th in the field for SG: Par 4 Scoring. Chesson is knocking on the door for his win in 2018 and I wouldn't be surprise if it happens this week. He's going to be my dark horse.

GPP Plays

Luke List ($7,400) – List has been playing very well as of late. He has made 3 straight cuts and has finished inside the top 30 in all 3. He has a top 10 finish here back in 2016. For stats, he's 3^rd in Driving Distance; 17^th in the field for B.O.B.%; and 7^th in the field for SG: Around the Green.

Martin Flores ($6,800) – Just like Hoge last week and Harkins the week before, Flores has been getting better recently. Yes, he missed the cut last week, I'm going to take a risk with Flores because he has a couple solid finishes here. He finished inside the top 20 in 2015 and 2014. For stats, he's 15^th in the field for B.O.B.%; 24^th in the field for Ball Striking; and 29^th in the field for Driving Distance.

Exposure

Cash Games: For cash games, I like to play the small field 50/50s, for example, anything less than 100 entrants. I tend to make just 1 lineup and that lineup will have the 6 golfers who I think will give me the best chance of 6/6 and finishing high both cash and GPPs.

3 Entry Max GPPs: For these tournaments, think of it as one lineup for cash, one for leagues and one that is completely different than the first 2. This technique is very common among the DFS community and even the DFS pros. Just start of with your cash lineup then use a “2 vs. 2" strategy for the other lineups.

20 – 150 Max GPPs: With these, you can have a player pool anywhere from 15-100 players. For 20 max GPPS, I tend to stay closer to 15-18 golfers in my pool. For 150 max GPPs, I recommend using around 25-30 golfers.

Weather

As of Monday, it looks like this week might be the first week where stacking tee times will be an advantage. On Thursday, you will have 15 mph with gust up to 22 mph in the morning. In the afternoon, you will have winds slightly down being around 14 mph with gusts up to 21 mph.On Friday, you will have 16 mph with gust up to 24 mph in the morning. In the afternoon, it will be 15 mph with gust up to 22 mph. As it stands, I will look at early-late tee times. If you're making 10 lineups, maybe have 2 or 3 of them with the tee time stack with your core of players. If there are any changes, I will let you guys know via twitter.

Good luck everyone!