PGA The First Tee: Shell Houston Open

Recap

Last week we decided not to do an article for the Match Play just because we felt that it was too high variance on what might happen, and it showed by Friday night. Out of the 16 top seeds, 11 of them failed to make it for Saturday. By the end, only Justin Thomas and Alex Noren made it to Sunday. Finally, with Bubba's win, I think it's safe he'll be a lock for cash plays for The Masters.

This Week

We are headed to Houston for the Shell Houston Open. The course is called Golf Club of Houston and it's a Par 72 and 7,441 yards. You have a couple of your traditional guys that like to enjoy playing 1 week before Augusta. For example, Phil Mickelson and Jordan Spieth. Some guys like playing here because they feel it's a good prep work for The Masters with the same shot shape off the tee and what you need to do around the greens. For stats, I'm looking at B.O.B.%; Strokes Gained: Off the Tee; Strokes Gained: Approach the Green; Proximity; and Strokes Gained: Par 4 and Par 5 scoring.

Cash Plays

Luke List ($9,600) – List has been consistent since the Farmers Insurance Open. He has made every cut since then and has a runner up finish at the Honda. For stats, 5^th in the field for SG: Off the Tee; 5^th in the field for SG: Par 4 scoring; and 7^th in the field for B.O.B. %. With finishing 3^rd here last year and with knocking on the door for that win, he'll be a good one and done pick this week.

Daniel Berger ($9,400) – Berger has been quietly having a good 2018 campaign. Since the Hero, he finished inside the top 5 times in his 7 starts. He also has 2 straight top 5 finishes here. For stats, he's 7^th in the field for SG: Par 5 scoring; 32^nd in the field for SG: Off the Tee; and he's 40^th in the field for B.O.B. %.

Emiliano Grillo ($8,500) – The Golf Cub of Houston feels like a course for Grillo to take advantage of. For stats, he's 6^th in the field for Proximity; 9^th in the field for SG: Off the Tee; and 18^th in the field for SG: Par 4 scoring. Even though he doesn't have course history here, I'm going to have him in a cash lineup since he hasn't missed a cut in 2018 which includes an 8^th place finish at the Honda.

GPP Plays

Scott Piercy ($7,500) – Piercy is your typical GPP player. You don't know what you're going to get. He can give you a miss cut or a top 10 finish. That's been he's season so far. He has 4 cuts made in his last 6 starts. For stats, he's 1^st in the field for SG: Approach the Green; 13^th in the field for SG: Par 4 scoring; and 15^th in the field for B.O.B. %. He does good course history with finishing 10^th in 2015 and 19^th in 2016. He's going to be my dark horse this week.

Brandon Harkins ($7,000) – Harkins has that top 15 up-side and only missing 3 cuts this season. I will take a stab at Harkins. For stats, he's 10^th in the field for SG: Par 4 scoring; 21^st in the field for SG: Approach the Green; and 25^th in the field for SG: Off the Tee.

Exposure

Cash Games: For cash games, I like to play the small field 50/50s, for example, anything less than 100 entrants. I tend to make just 1 lineup and that lineup will have the 6 golfers who I think will have the best chance of making it to the weekend and have the upside of a top 10 finish.

3 Entry Max GPPs: For these tournaments, think of it as one lineup for cash, one for leagues and one that is completely different than the first 2. This technique is very common among the DFS community and even the DFS pros. Just start of with your cash lineup then use a “2 vs. 2” strategy for the other lineups.

20 – 150 Max GPPs: With these, you can have a player pool anywhere from 15-100 players. For 20 max GPPS, I tend to stay closer to 15-18 golfers in my pool. For 150 max GPPs, I recommend using around 25-30 golfers.

Weather

As of Monday evening, there doesn't seem to be any advantage. Although, it does look like there's going to be some rain heading into Thursday morning. However, I don't care much about rain it's the wind that scares me. Friday is only the day that's questionable for the wind, but it doesn't change from morning. It's calling for 14 mph with gusts up to 21 mph. If there are any changes, I will update it via twitter.

Good luck everyone!!