Last week was, once again, another exciting sweat for our core. Both Rahm and D.J. made it interesting on Sunday. They both were very close to get into a playoff by the end. For DraftKings, I had 5/14 golfers missing the cut, including a lot of Kisner and McGirt. Congrats to Brian Harman on his win!
We are headed to TPC Sawgrass, for The Players Championship. All the top players are playing this week and it will be simple to find some value. Recently, Sawgrass has done some renovations to the course, so be mindful when looking at course history. With that, I'm just going to take course history out. I'm just going to focus on recent form and key stats for this week. Those stats are: G.I.R.; B.O.B.%; Proximity. Other stats to consider: Par 4 scoring; Bogey Avoidance; and Scrambling.
Adam Hadwin ($6,800) – Here's an example of finding some value. With Adam's recent form and current rank in the world, he should not be down here. He has made his last 3 cuts and with a bad showing at his last event, finishing near dead last, I think he'll be over looked this week. His stats are still good relative to the field. He's 27th in the field for B.O.B.%(29th); 48th in the field for G.I.R.(55th); and 45th in the field for Proximity(58th).
Lucas Glover ($7,100) – Going back to the Glover train for this week. Even with his poor play last weekend, there's no reason not to back to him. He only missed 1 cut in his last 3 events and he is still one of the better ball strikers in the field. He's 8th in the field for G.I.R.(6th); 16th in the field for Proximity(21st); and 34th in the field for B.O.B.%(36th).
Jason Dufner ($7,800) – Dufner has certainly found something with his game this season. He's becoming a very consistent player. He has made his last 3 cuts, including a 11th place finish at the RBC Heritage. His ball striking is very solid. He's 22nd in the field for B.O.B.%(22nd); 46th in the field for G.I.R.(52nd); and 15th in the field for Proximity(17th).
Dustin Johnson ($12,000) – It's going to be vey hard to fade anyone above $9,000 this week. Everyone in this range have been playing well all year. I'm just going pay up to D.J. and with a lot of value around $7,000, you can easily do so. If there was any rust at all last week, he certainly got rid of it early and finished strong on Sunday. His stats are still the best. 5th in the field for B.O.B%(5th); 1st in the field for G.I.R.(1st); 2nd in the field for Proximity(2nd). I believe he can get it done this week. He's my pick to win.
As you can see, there is a lot of value around and below $7,000. For this week, I would recommend going 40-60% exposure to the 4 golfers above. I would try and pick only 2, maybe 3 golfers you like at the top and put them around 40% in your lineups. For the value guys, I would go 60%. That way, if your core hits then you will have a very good chance of hitting a nice payday! Which, at the end of the day, is what we are all trying to achieve!!
Good luck everyone!