PGA The First Tee: Valspar Championship

Recap

What an exciting tournament to watch over the weekend! If you guys had watched our podcast, you knew both Jason and myself were on Phil. His time was coming, and you saw it with his stats entering the week. Obviously, I was wrong about J.T. and D.J., however, that's the strategy that I play. Fade the defending champion and the winner from the week before. Overall, it was a solid week considering it was a no cut event. For DraftKings, I made 5 lineups and I managed to get 3 of them cashing in the $4 and I used the same 5 lineups to grab some milly tickets for The Masters and I managed to be just outside the cash line with only 20 points away. I'm very pleased how the process is going and we're less than a month away from Augusta! Congrats to Phil on his first win since 2013!

This Week

We are back in Florida for the Valspar Championship. It's going to be probably the strongest field outside The Players and the majors. You have Spieth, Rory, Rose, Stenson, and, oh yeah, Tiger! This will be Tiger's first time playing at this event as a pro. The way he's playing right now, it wouldn't surprise me if he is contending for that 'W'. The course that they're playing at is Copperhead which is apart of the Innisbrook resort. It's a Par 71 and it's 7,340 yards long. The stats that I'll be looking at are SG: Birdie or Better %; Ball Striking; Proximity; SG: Par 4 scoring; SG: Par 5 scoring, and because there 4 par 5s on this course, I'm going to add Driving Distance as a tie breaker.

Cash Plays

Cameron Smith ($8,000) – Smith has been very consistent this year. He hasn't missed a cut this season and at his last start, The Genesis Open, he finished 6^th. He finished 42^nd and a 49^th here in the last 2 years respectively. For stats, he's 8^th in the field for SG: Par 5 scoring; 11^th in the field for Proximity; and 26^th in the field for SG: B.O.B.%.

Chesson Hadley ($7,400) – Yes, I'm going back to Chesson this week. I know he played horrible at The Honda, however, so did everyone else that week. So, I'm going to throw that week out of the window. He's played between 2014-2016 and has made the cut in all years, including a 14^th place finish in 2014. For stats, he's 1^st in the field for Ball Striking; 9^th in the field for SG: B.O.B.%; and 12^th in the field for Proximity.

Bryson DeChambeau ($7,400) – Once again, I'm going to attempt to play Bryson. It's my first time playing him since last year. I don't know, I just have a strange feeling that Bryson is clicking all the right cylinders and could very well contend this week. He finished 27^th here last year and has made his last 3 cuts, including a 5^th place finish at the Waste Management. For stats, he's 1^st in the field SG: Par 5 scoring; 13^th in the field for SG: B.O.B.%; and 18^th in the field for Ball Striking. Believe it or not, I'm going with my gut and saying that he's my pick to win this week!

GPP Plays

Bud Cauley ($7,200) – Cauley only has 1 missed cut this season, back at The Waste Management. He finished 58^th here last year while having to WD back in 2013. For stats, he's 19^th in the field for Proximity; 27^th in the field for Ball Striking; and 33^rd in the field for SG: B.O.B.%. He's going to be my dark horse this week.

Aaron Wise ($6,900) – Wise will be that up and down player all season it seems like. He will either give you a top 20 or a miss cut. The fact that he made the cut at The Honda, in the tough conditions, might show that he has found something. For stats, he's 7^th in the field for SG: B.O.B.%; 13^th in the field for Proximity; and 20^th in the field for Ball Striking.

Exposure

Cash Games: For cash games, I like to play the small field 50/50s, for example, anything less than 100 entrants. I tend to make just 1 lineup and that lineup will have the 6 golfers who I think will have the best chance of making it to the weekend and have the upside of a top 10 finish.

3 Entry Max GPPs: For these tournaments, think of it as one lineup for cash, one for leagues and one that is completely different than the first 2. This technique is very common among the DFS community and even the DFS pros. Just start of with your cash lineup then use a “2 vs. 2" strategy for the other lineups.

20 – 150 Max GPPs: With these, you can have a player pool anywhere from 15-100 players. For 20 max GPPS, I tend to stay closer to 15-18 golfers in my pool. For 150 max GPPs, I recommend using around 25-30 golfers.

Weather

As of Monday evening, it looks as though we're going to have to stack tee times this week. On Thursday morning, you will have winds around 11 mph, with gusts up to 17 mph. In the afternoon, you will have 15 mph winds with gusts up to 22 mph. On Friday morning, you will have 11 mph winds with gusts up to 16 mph. In the afternoon, you will have 7 mph winds with gusts up to 11 mph. As it stands, I will give the early-late (Thursday morning – Friday afternoon) tee times the slight advantage. If there are any changes, I will let you guys know via twitter.

Good luck everyone!!