PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP Review
What an unbelievable Sunday of golf at TPC Sawgrass, with Rickie Fowler playing out of his mind to take down his biggest win yet. Going into the tournament a poll of fellow PGA Tour players came out that had Rickie ranked as the most overrated player on tour. It felt like jealousy from some other players who might think he hasn't done enough to justify his massive popularity and off course earnings. So, Rickie decided to shove that poll down their throats and cement his place as one of best young golfers on the planet. It was beautiful to watch, even though I had no stake in his win. A $1.8 million dollar take home, and a supermodel girlfriend to celebrate it with, it's very good to be Rickie Fowler. Below are my results from Draftkings for the week, yielding an ROI of 105%.
I was let down by fellow countryman, David Hearn, on Sunday, as I was looking at a sizable cash until he started imploding. I had zero shares of winner Fowler, or his playoff combatants Sergio Garcia and Kevin Kisner. With that in mind, I can't be discouraged with a profitable week under those circumstances. I will be targeting GPP's with smaller fields for the next couple weeks to see how I do in comparison to entering the massive $3 tournament Draftkings offers every week.
Wells Fargo Championship Preview
It will be tough to live up to the PLAYERS Sunday afternoon, but there is a pretty solid field coming out for the Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow this week. I suspect this might have something to do with the fact Quail Hollow will be hosting an upcoming major, the 2017 PGA Championship. It's a bombers paradise, measuring over 7,500 yards in length, so distance off the tee is very important this week. The stats I'm looking at will sound familiar, but there is solid back behind them this week. There is no water on this course, and not many bunkers, so wayward tee shots aren't punished as much as usual. World #1 Rory McIroy is in the field this week, and why not, his track record here is sensational. In his five starts at Quail Hollow, he has four top 10's, including his win on 2010. His Draftkings price tag of $14,000 certainly reflects his course history, and exceptional current form, and I will likely be paying up for him on many of my tournament rosters. Other big names in field include Henrik Stenson, Phil Mickelson, Patrick Reed, Jim Furyk, and defending champion, long bomber JB Holmes.
As I mentioned, this is a long hitters haven, and my key stats hone in on these types of player. I will go back to old trusty, Strokes Gained tee to green (T2G), along with par 5 scoring (P5S) and Driving Distance (DD). Five of the last eight winners here have finished the season ranked in the top 50 in DD. As well, seven of the last twelve winner have finished the year in the top 50 in P5S. One thing that makes Quail Hollow difficult are the greens, so I will also be looking at some key putting stats to settle some tie breakers when making roster decisions. Finally¸ eight of the last eleven winner have finished in the top 50 in my favorite stat, strokes gained tee to green.
Top Pin Seekers
All the key stats point to a monster week for Rory. We've already mentioned his exceptional track record here, but his recent form is actually more impressive. In his past 5 starts he's finished 8th, 1st, 4th, 11th and 9th. He has the ability to blow this field away, so I'm not totally scared off by his price tag. GPP Ownership guess: 22-27%
Matsuyama is quickly becoming one of my favorite players on tour, and I really think his breakthrough win is coming soon. All the stats point to him having another monster week, his tee to green game is one of the best in the world. He's finally priced to match his insane ability, so I'm hoping people will look elsewhere after his underwhelming weekend at the Players. He also ranks 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, another key stat to look at this week. I will probably have an extreme overweight position on him tournaments this week, and you should look for maximum exposure too. GPP Ownership guess: 15-20% (praying it will be around 10%, though)
Another player I seem to always be touting is Berger, and that theme continues this week. The stats speak for themselves, and like Matsuyama, he's been knocking on the door so many times this year that it's only a matter of time before he gets a win. He missed the cut at Sawgrass, so I think he may fly under the radar this week. GPP Ownership guess: 8-13%
Next up is last years champion, JB Holmes. This course just couldn't fit Holmes' game any better, and he will be a staple of my cash game lineups. In his last six starts, he has a 1st, 2nd and 9th place finish, so his game is trending in the right direction. GPP Ownership guess: 20-25%
Middle Tee Plays
Patrick Reed - DK Price $9,100 - Price still doesn't match immense upside - 11th P5S & 23rd T2G
Phil Mickelson - DK Price $10,400 - Great track record at Quail Hollow with 6 top 10's in last 10 starts - 8th P5S & 32nd DD
Adam Scott - DK Price $8,600 - exceptional price point for one the games best, a must for all cash game lineups - 1st T2G, 5th DD & 39th P5S
Justin Thomas - DK Price $8,600 - great current form, due for breakout win - 2nd P5S, 18th DD & 44th T2G
Shawn Stefani - DK Price $7,500 - 19th P5S & 36th DD
GPP Dart Board Dreams
Aaron Badelley - DK Price $6,400 - no water hole to worry about this week - 15th P5S & 24th DD
Jason Kokrak - DK Price $7,100 - course sets up beautifully for his game - 8th P5S, 11th DD & 43rd T2G
James Hahn - DK Price $6,400 - great price, already has a win this year - top 50 in P5S & DD
Morgan Hoffman - DK Price $7,100 - under priced and having a solid year - 23rd P5S & 36th DD
Tony Finau - DK Price $6,200 - Boom or Bust Special - 2nd in DD
I'm not very high on Jim Furyk this week, and much prefer cheaper guys in the same range (Matsuyama, Mickelson, Holmes). Another player I will have limited exposure to is Ben Martin, who's price has risen to a ridiculous $8,700. There is a slew of guys in that price range who I will gladly roster over him. Good Luck and see you next week!