The Barclays Preview

The Course

Playoffs!?!? Yeah, we're talking playoffs. Round 1 of the FedEx Cup Playoffs kicks off this week in Edison, NJ for the Barclays. In recent years, the Barclays has rotated a few different courses into the rotation, and this year it returns to Plainsfield Country Club, the site of the 2011 edition. That year, Dustin Johnson won the shortened 54 hole event with a score of 19 under. It was shortened that year due to concerns about Hurricane Irene, but we won't have any natural disasters to worry about this week, hopefully. Plainsfield Country Club (PCC) is a 7,102 yard par 70 layout, as #5 was changed from a par 5 to a par 4. Donald Ross designed the course on it's present grounds all the way back in 1916, and it was most recently restored to it's current state by Gil Hanse in 1999. Brandt Snedeker holds the course record at PCC, when he fired a 61 in the third round. Much like Sedgefield last week at the Wydnham Championship, it's going to take a precision tee to green game, mixed with some good putting to navigate this tricky Donald Ross design. One unique thing about PCC is the greens are Poa Annua grass, one of the only on tour to feature them. The top 100 players in FedEx Cup points after the the Barclays will qualify for round two of the playoffs next week at the Deutsche Bank Championship.

Key Stats for Plainfield

With a tight par 70 layout for the second straight week, we go back to par 4 scoring (P4S) as a key stat to analyze this week. In 2010, eight players who finished at least t10 ranked in the top 50 in P4S at the end of the season. Par 4 efficiency stats are also good to look at for this week when finding sleepers. Like last week, and most weeks it seems , strokes gained tee to green (T2G) is a key stat that's been very predictive for success at par 70 layouts, and was at PCC in 2011. Nine players who finished in the top 10 were in the top 40 in T2G for the season. This isn't surprising, as the top of this years T2G rankings have names like Spieth, Rose, Day and Matsuyama, but also lesser known commodities like Brendan Steele. Finally, the last key stat I analyzed was birdie or better percentage (BoB%), as nine players in the top 10 finished in the top 50 for the 2011 season. The course has been made tougher to score in since the 2011 edition, and you want to target players who will take advantage of scoring opportunities. Strokes gained putting (SGP), was the tie breaking stat I used a lot in making decisions this week, as the greens are tricky with the unusual Poa Annua grass and undulations everywhere.


Top Pin Seekers

Jordan Spieth

DK Salary T2G P4S Birdie%
12,600 2 1 2

There really isn't much I can say about this dude that hasn't been mentioned before, he's the best player on the planet and there is zero reason to fade him in any format this week - 6th SGP GPP Ownership Guess: 27-32%

Jason Day

DK Salary T2G P4S Birdie%
11,500 11 2 1

Coming off the most impressive win I've seen in a long time at the PGA Championship, don't expect Day to be complacent any time soon. Stats all point to a big week. He has two wins in his last five starts with a 12th as his worst finish - 9th in SGP & 13th here in 2011 GPP Ownership Guess: 20-25%

Dustin Johnson

DK Salary T2G P4S Birdie%
10,700 15 30 6

Winner here in 2011, and coming off of a seventh place finish at the PGA Championship. Even though there are only two par 5's, he will be able to take advantage of them compared to the rest of the field, He's third in par 5 scoring. I almost went with Justin Rose here, who is also a fantastic play, but I think people may overlook DJ this week. GPP Ownership Guess: 10-15%

Rickie Fowler

DK Salary T2G P4S Birdie%
9,800 37 104 23

Three top 10's in his past five starts, including a win, he'll likely be a higher owned player than he should be this week due to his popularity GPP Ownership Guess: 18-23%


Middle Tee Plays

Brooks Koepka - $9,700 - a reach as a "Middle Tee Play," but I can't leave him off the list. Unreal form right now, scoring machine - 6th P4S, 8th BoB%, 20th T2G & 9th SGP

Matt Kuchar - DK Salary $9,300 - 2nd in 2011, eight straight made cuts with three top 7 finishes - 11th P4S, 28th T2G, 28th BoB% & 29th SGP

Brandt Snedeker - DK Salary $8,600 - 3rd in 2011, recent form is 6/7 cuts made with three top 10's - 21st P4S, 44th BoB% & 7th SGP

Hideki Matsuyama - DK Salary $8,500 - burned quite a few people last week, including myself, will hopefully keep his ownership down - top 16 in all three key stats

Charl Schwartzel - DK Salary $8,200 - put on a tee to green stripe show last week, if the putter gets hot, look out - 35th T2G

Zach Johnson - DK Salary $8,100 - made six of lats seven cuts, with a win and three top 6 finishes, fantastic wedge player which is perfect for this course - missed cut in 2011 should be ignored - top 27 in all three key stats

Patrick Reed - DK Salary $8,100 - five straight cuts made, all top 30 finishes, very due for a win - top 39 in all three key stats & 15th SGP

Robert Streb - DK Salary $7,900 - seven straight made cuts with three top 10's and six top 20's! - top 27 in all three key stats & 22nd SGP

Jimmy Walker - DK Salary $7,600 - way too under priced, 18th in 2011 - 9th BoB% & 2nd SGP

GPP Dart Board Dreams

JB Holmes - DK Salary $7,300 - if the putter gets hot, tee to green game will have him in the mix Sunday - 10th BoB% & 14th T2G

Tony Finau - DK Salary $7,300 - eight of last nine cuts made, with five top 14 finishes - top 29 in all three key stats

Brendan Steele - DK Salary $7,100 - will be under 3% owned, good current form - top 15 in all three key stats

Charley Hoffman - DK Salary $7,000 - 10th in 2011 - top 59 in all three key stats

Jason Bohn - DK Salary $6,900 - three of last four starts have been 13th or better - top 40 in SGP, T2G, P4S & BoB%

Kevin Kisner - DK Salary $6,900 - 2nd place finishes lead the Tour - top 50 SGP, T2G & P4S

Harris English - DK Salary $6,800 - Nine straight cuts made, great cash game play but also has GPP upside - top 30 P4S & SGP

Matt Jones - DK Salary $6,500 - top 33 in SGP & BoB%

Camillo Villegas - DK Salary $6,400 - 6th in 2011, solid history on Donald Ross courses



Comments
ArtVandelay10
DJ and Day both withdrew from the Pro-Am, so I will own less shares of both, especially Day who apparently has a back issue - Stenson also seems to be popping up in more and more of my lineups