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Congratulations are in order for Fabian Gomez, who defeated Brandt Snedeker in a playoff to win his second career title at the Sony Open. Gomez was impressive throughout, posting 69-64-65 in his first three rounds, before finishing Sunday with a blistering 62 that included ten birdies. He earned the victory by playing lights out golf, and his putting reminded me of Russell Henley when he stormed on the scene at the Sony Open in 2013. Snedeker did all he could to win, leading the tourney from day 1 with a 63, and following that up with 65 and a pair of 66's on the weekend. He played very clean golf, making 20 birdies to only two bogies, including two bogey free rounds. In the end it wasn't enough, but he is someone I will have my eye on in the coming weeks. When he is avoiding the big numbers and putting well, he is a threat to win every tournament he plays in.
The Course(s)
The Career Builder Challenge is hosted by the PGA West Stadium Course, but will be played on three different courses. The PGA West Stadium Course (Pete Dye), The PGA West Tournament Course (Jack Nicklaus) and La Quinta Country Club. La Quinta Country Club has been a part of this week's PGA rotation for 51 of the 55 years they have played this tournament, which included the glory years when it was known as the Bob Hope Classic.
The Stadium Course is a Pete Dye gem, designed in 1986 and is widely viewed as the “Sequel" to TPC Sawgrass. The course will be played at 7,300 yards and was designed with inspiration from Scottish links style courses. Dye is a master artist, and he showed off his imagination by building a “Western-Links" style course complete with thick patches of gorse, bunkers deep enough that golfers disappear on camera, and enough length to frustrate even the longest hitters. The biggest difference between Dye's design, and the Scottish Links course that inspired it, is that Dye wanted the course to be extremely tough for professionals, regardless of weather and the elements. In fact, it played so tough during its inception in 1986-1987, that PGA Tour professionals signed a petition to have it banned, which was granted and lasted until 2015 when PGA Tour officials decided to place back it in the rotation.
What's changed? Well, we can start with technology. 7,300 yards was long in 1986, I mean really long. The technology the players have today make 7,300 yards play close to an average length on Tour, and the tournament officials have said the course should play as a “birdie-fest" this week. They have overseeded the course, making it extremely lush. This is important as links style courses can be attacked when the weather is calm—which is in the forecast—and the course is NOT playing firm and fast. In many ways the players will have ideal weather and conditions, which should help ease the fury that their predecessors had for the Stadium Course. Pete Dye is famous for designing risk-reward type golf courses, and the Stadium Course is no different. In typical Dye fashion, the course features a 17th hole, Par 3 masterpiece, known simply as “Alcatraz". It was at this hole that Lee Trevino made his most famous ace, winning the Skins Game (and $175,000) with a shot heard round the world.
The PGA West Tournament Course is a Jack Nicklaus design that will be played at roughly 7,200 yards this week. Like many Nicklaus courses, the Stadium Course is quite forgiving off the tee, but more than makes up for that ease around the green, where players will be challenged by large green structures with plenty of trouble surrounding them. It is described as a “true ballstrikers course", which pays homage to Nicklaus's game, and definitely favors some of the top golfers in the field this week. Specifically Patrick Reed and Bill Haas, who have enjoyed fond memories over the years at PGA West. Reed played well here at qualifying school here in 2012 earning his tour card, while Haas won the 2015 edition of the Career Builder, his second win at this event.
La Quinta Country Club, interestingly enough, has played as the hardest course among the three since 2011. While that is relative to the two other host courses, the scores still remained low, with the highest aggregate total coming in at 70.67 strokes. La Quinta is not your typical desert course. While many of its neighboring courses offer wide fairways and large green complexes, La Quinta is much tighter off the tee, well bunkered and will be the most strategic layout of the three courses. Golfers will need to be on point with their course management, with the layout favoring accurate ball strikers and a razor sharp short game.
The Field
While some of the tour players were yet to be born when the course was banned, many of the participants have played the course during PGA Tour qualifying school. Q-School was known as the most grueling test in golf, so when paired with a difficult test like the Stadium Course, much can be gleaned from the players who came away with PGA Tour Cards.
PGATour.com listed the players who qualified here in 2011 and 2012, and you can find that list below.
2011:Brendon Todd (medalist); Seung-Yul Noh; Jarrod Lyle; Brian Harman; Charlie Beljan; Roberto Castro; William McGirt; Greg Owen; Daniel Summerhays; John Huh; Colt Knost
2012: D.H. Lee (medalist); Billy Horschel; Erik Compton; Matt Jones; Derek Ernst; Scott Langley; Si Woo Kim; Henrik Norlander; Chez Reavie; Patrick Reed
I mentioned Patrick Reed and Bill Haas above. Both players have enjoyed success at this rotation, and it comes as no surprise as both are mentioned as some of the better ball strikers on Tour.
With this in mind, I am tailoring my strategy this week to reflect accurate drivers of the golf ball, and those who excel in metrics like Driving Accuracy, Proximity to Hole, Greens in Regulation and Strokes Gained: Putting.
Rankings:
- 1.) Bill Haas: Two time champion (and defending champion), all-time money leader, and has a streak of 35 consecutive rounds under par, going back to 2008. Haas is one of the guys who I play based on the course matchup, and his familiarity with the course. He is not a guy I want to play in a full field with the world's best golfers, so the absence of players in the elite tier makes him even more enticing this week. I expect him to be highly owned, but it is hard to argue with his pricing and course history.
- 2.) Patrick Reed: 2014 champion, He is not the sexiest pick this week, and on DraftKings he is the most expensive option. With that said, he comes into the tournament in excellent form, notching six consecutive top 10's and second place in Kapalua. He has all the tools needed to win this week and when he gets in the hunt, he is one of the better closers on tour. His biggest weapon is deadly accuracy with his mid-irons, and when you couple that with his excellent course management, you have a guy who is going to have a ton of birdie opportunities. If his putter gets hot, he could win this tournament by five strokes. I'll have 20% exposure to Reed this week.
- 3.) Ryan Palmer: T13, T16 in his previous two tournaments, Palmer comes into this week playing very well. He is always a threat in tournaments that favor ball-strikers, and he has shown that he can contend at this tournament. Palmer has four top 10's in his last five trips to Palm Springs, and I am banking on another top ten this week. His price in DFS formats is fair, and if you are building a balanced lineup, he belongs in there. Usually my studs and duds lineups will have one guy in the middle-upper tier, and Palmer looks like the perfect option in that sense. He's another guy I will have 10-15% exposure to.
- 4.) Zach Johnson: No stranger to my rankings list, Johnson is a great option in the high tier this week. He is a guy that you don't have to worry about missing the cut, which automatically gives you flexibility at the bottom of your lineup. He tied for 9th this past week in Waialea, and has two top 10's as this tournament in his last five trips.
- 5.) Jason Dufner: I mentioned Dufner last week as one of the better values on the board, and that hasn't changed much this week. He did not disappoint at Waialea last week, finishing 9th after putting together four solid rounds, shooting 67-67-65-68. Dufner has changed his physical appearance, looking svelte and more comfortable than he has since he broke through with his first major championship. Dufner has been knocking on the door the last six months, and I am expecting him to break through soon. On a rotation that is requires accuracy over length, Dufner is my favorite play this week. With Dufner, I will be challenging my exposure limits and I could exceed 25% in that department this week.
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