The First Tee at the CIMB Classic (TPC Kuala Lumpur)

Congratulations are in order for Brendan Steele, who won the The Safeway Open this past weekend to open the 2016-2017 PGA Tour season. Steele finished at (-18), holding off budding sophomore star Patton Kizzire, and captured his second career PGA Tour title, with the first one coming in his rookie year in 2011 at the Valero Texas Open. In many ways the win was one of redemption for Steele, as he led this same tournament last year in each of the first three rounds before shooting a 40 on the back nine and finishing T17th. Steele commented on the differences between the rounds, stating that last year he tried not to make mistakes, while this year he went out and seized his destiny by birdying the last three holes to win by one stroke. Welcome to the modern day PGA Tour, with so many talented players that are closely bunched together in terms of skill level, the winners each week are the players who maintain an aggressive game plan on the weekend. Golf is such a fickle sport to begin with, but when you add in the high degree of variance that accompanies a small white ball battling mother-nature (and father architect), even the best players in the world cannot expect to win every time they play their best. Meanwhile Kizzire was left to play the role of a frustrated runner-up, the second time he has finished in second place through his thirty career starts. The other big story was the continued hot play of Paul Casey, who finished in a T3rd, marking the fourth consecutive tournament he has finished 4th or better (2nd, 2nd, 4th, 3rd) dating back to the Fed Ex Cup playoffs. Casey's problem has never been pure talent, as he is one of the best drivers of the golf ball, and does not have any definitive weakness to his game. At the highest level of golf, having an unflappable demeanor is something that most golfers would kill for, and Casey has that in spades. He is following the career arc of several other European players—most notably Henrik Stenson—who broke through and realized their ultimate potential in their late 30's (Casey is 39). Casey's tee to green game is as good as anyone in the world right now, and if he keeps putting himself in position to win, he will find himself on the positive side of variance and have some more trophies to hang on his mantel piece back home in England.

The Course

Formerly known as the Kuala Lumpur Golf & Country Club (West course), the host course to the CIMB Classic is now part of the TPC network of golf courses and has been officially renamed TPC Kuala Lumpur. The course is located in Bukit Kiara, Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia), and runs along the Bukit Kiara hillsides, providing golfers with an expansive view of the surrounding natural habitat that is native to Malaysia.

Originally designed by Nelson Howarth in 1991 (who also built the less heralded East Course), the course has since been redesigned by the firm of E&G Parslow, with brothers Ted and Geoff Parslow overseeing the renovations over a period of nearly two years between 2006-2008.

The end result is an aesthetically pleasing golf course fit for the best players in the world, with specific attention paid towards turf maintenance and conditioning. Due to the fact that Malaysia does not have a vast network of golf courses, or a thriving golf tourism industry, TPC Kuala Lumpur is referred to as Malaysia's crown jewel of golf courses. When you are able to host a sanctioned PGA Tour event that regularly draws some very big names in the golf world, you must be doing something right, and the decision to become part of the TPC Network has helped the course immensely.

TPC Kuala Lumpur plays to a par 72 and can be stretched out to 7,005 yards, which is exactly the yardage we will see the CIMB Classic played to this year. The course was originally designed as a high end resort course that could keep up with hundreds of rounds per year by golfers of all skill levels, while simultaneously having the versatility to host professional events. The redesign in the middle 2000's, set out to further strengthen the options for tournament officials when setting up the course for PGA and European Tour events, and they have struck a fair balance between providing an exciting experience for spectators, while also making players think through shot lines and angles off the tee.

It is a thinking man's golf course, but with current wave of long ball hitters, TPC can be over powered, evidenced by Justin Thomas's breakthrough win last year where he finished at (-26). TPC Kuala Lumpur yielded the third highest Greens in Regulation percentage (at a touch over 74%), while also giving up the lowest combined scoring average of any par 72 in 2015-16 at 69.6. With four par 5's, the course allows players to attack the par 5's and essentially start their round with at least two birdies in their back pocket, and even that is giving up strokes to the rest of the field.

When you combine a short course with ideal conditions, wide fairways and generous green sizes, the only course defense left is green speed and pin locations. But don't expect to find players struggling on the greens, as TPC Kuala Lumpur features Paspalum greens that are expected to be running in the 10.5-11 range, which qualifies on the low side of green speeds for PGA Tournaments. There will be plenty of birdie opportunities for all players, but following the blue print set by Justin Thomas last year, those players who are able to carve up the par 5's with eagle opportunities and easy birdies are the ones that will be among the last several groups to go out on Sunday.

Rankings

  • 1.)Paul Casey: Casey isn't a tough choice to put in play as your GPP anchor this week, as he has been on fire over the last two months, recording four consecutive top four finishes, while showing off the type of tee-to-green game that made him a feared player in his mid-twenties. Casey has shot under par in 15 of his last 16 rounds, and fits the bill perfectly for what you are looking for at TPC Kuala Lumpur. He finished last season 5th in GIR percentage, 3rd in SG: Approach, 9th in SG: Total, 10th in SG: T2G, 9th in Scoring Average, 9th in Proximity to hole and 35th in Birdie Average. Tying those stats in with what is needed to win at TPC Kuala Lumpur, Casey finished 9th in Par 5 scoring and 8th in Going for the Green Percentage, a strong indicator that Casey is set to pace the field in Par 5 scoring this week.
  • 2.)Patrick Reed: America's Ryder Cup hero, Reed is never one to shy away from a challenge. He was the heart of the American team, and that type of reverence is something that he will thrive on heading into the 2016 season. While Reed's game is tailor fitted for match play, you can not underestimate his stroke play record either, as Reed has won five tournaments in four full season on Tour, including notching at least one win each year since he's earned his tour card. Reed finished 2015-16 8th in SG: All Around, 40th in SG: Putting, 30th in SG: T2G, and 14th in SG: Total. He also finished 21st in Birdie Average and 17th in Scoring Average. He doesn't necessarily have the power of some of the other premier players in the world, but he's not short off the tee either, and with the help of a world-class short game, Reed is capable of going very low, evidenced by his (-21) win at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions last season.
  • 3.)Ryan Moore: As much as Reed was the heart and soul of the American Ryder Cup team, Moore proved to be its inspiration, as he came into the final week of the Fed Ex Cup playoffs knowing that his spot on the Ryder Cup team depended on his performance in that week alone. He only responded by finishing runner up to Rory McIlroy The Tour Championship where he played incredible golf, but became a victim of circumstance when McIlroy put together a set of improbable hole outs to get into a playoff versus Moore and eventually win with a birdie on the fourth playoff hole. Then what'd he do? Moore went out and clinched the Ryder Cup for the Americans by birdying the last four three holes after being down two with three holes to play. Moore not only has confidence on his side, he has course history as well, as he has won twice at Kuala Lumpur and backed up a 2014 win with a 10th place showing last year.
  • 4.)Adam Scott: Placing Scott here almost seems like blasphemy in a somewhat weak field, but the three guys ahead of him come into this week with a lot of momentum and previous course history on their side. Scott enjoyed a career resurgence in 2015-16, winning twice on Tour, while adding two 2nd place finishes, nine top 10's and a perfect 20 for 20 in cuts made. In his first appearance at Kuala Lumpur last year, Scott finished in 10th place and led the field in Par 5 scoring with a ridiculous 4.13 average. He also placed 4th in SG: Off the Tee and 16th in Greens in Regulation percentage, while finishing 4th in Driving Distance. With Scott, it all comes down to his putter…if he can start to see some putts drop, he could lap the field, but he is such a good ball-striker that he could easily be in contention even if he is not excelling in the all-important SG: Putting category.
  • 5.)Justin Thomas: The defending champion comes into this week looking to continue his ascent up the World Golf Rankings. Aside from his win at TPC Kuala Lumpur in 2015, Thomas notched four 3rd places, seven top 10's, 10 top 25's and made 22 of 27 cuts. Thomas has made strides in all his all-around game, and it clearly showed last season, as he finished in the top 40 in SG: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Around the Green, Greens in Regulation percentage and in the top 20 in SG: T2G ,Driving Distance, SG: Total , Eagle Average, Birdie Average and Scoring Average. His only area of weakness—from a pure stats perspective—was his putting, but he was still gaining a respectable .042 shots on the field (95 in SG: Putting), while giving himself a litany of birdie opportunities each round. As I mentioned above, Par 5 Scoring is an important metric to watch this week, and Thomas is one of the best, finishing 2nd in Par 5 Scoring Average and 1st in Par 5 Birdie or Better in 2015 Tour season. Thomas might appear to be in Jordan Spieth's shadow as one of his running mates, but don't get it twisted, he has a TON of game and his game travels very well, making him a threat to win every time he tees it up. That especially goes for this week on a course where he shot a course record 61 last year.


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