The First Tee: The Farmers Insurance Open (Torrey Pines South & North Course)

Congratulations goes out to Jason Dufner (and my favorite DFS play of last week) for his win at the CareerBuilder Challenge last week. Dufner defeated David Lingmerth—another ball striker dujour—on the second playoff hole after Lingmerth's approach shot careened off greenside rocks and entered a water hazard. Dufner had been in control of the tournament from day 1, shooting 64-65-64-70. Meanwhile, Lingmerth stayed true to his streaky reputation, shooting 68-68-62-65 and doing his best to hunt down Dufner. The new rotation that the PGA had put in place was a roaring success, as the first three rounds provided some real low scoring which was great for TV, while Sunday's round was exactly what you want to see out of a final round, mentally exhausting. In the end, Lingmerth was the first to blink, handing Dufner his first win since the 2013 season and sparking what I think will be a big comeback season for Dufner. He is a guy who covets Presidents Cups and Ryder Cups, so expect him to play a full schedule and don't be surprised if he notches another win this year.

The Course(s)

The Tour moves onto the Farmers Insurance Open, hosted by Torrey Pines in sunny San Diego. This year the rotation will be Thursday and Friday at Torrey Pines North and Torrey Pines South—half the field will start at the South course, while the other half will start at the North course, where they will switch the following day—and then the weekend (postcut) will be played only at Torrey Pines South.

Torrey Pines South is one of the more historic public courses in the country, partly due to its breath taking coast line views, but mostly due to Tiger Woods dramatic victory over Rocco Mediate in the 2008 US Open. This was the Open where Tiger played with a leg fracture and made—even by his standards—the most clutch putt I've ever witnessed on the 72nd hole that sent the championship to a Monday 18 hole playoff. The course was on full display that year, and it opened up a lot of eyes to just how good public courses can be as Major Championship venues. Bethpage Black (Long Island, NY) has also done wonders for the perception of public courses, as both the Black course and Torrey Pines South offered pristine conditions while still challenging the players as much as any other venue.

The South Course is the longest course in the PGA rotation, and it was, and still is the longest golf course to ever host a major championship. When played from the tips (as it will be this week), the course can be stretched from 7,628-7,643 yards with a slope rating of 78.2. The course was renovated in 2001 by US Open “doctor" Rees Jones, who transformed the course into what it is today. Much of the work done by Jones focused on lengthening the course to where it could withstand the talents of the world's best golfers. He increased the total length by over 500 yards, while repositioning bunkers to match the current technology in the golf world. This meant they were moved to areas of the course where the ball was now landing, instead of where it was landing decades prior. Jones also added new contours to the greens, with the purpose being twofold. The contours added undulation to otherwise flat greens, while also creating quadrants where multiple pin locations can live. The length of the course is not a full deterrent against low scoring, as much of the length is placed in the Par 3's and Par 5's, with

The North Course may seem like it plays a minor part in the tourney, but in reality, it offers a completely different test than its sister course to the south. While the South course is a bear at over 7,600 yards, the North course will be played at just over 7,000 yards (7,052). The players will be able to attack the North course in a way they can't on the South, but with that aggression comes a certain amount of risk. The North is a much tighter course, with three less total acres of fairway and five total acres less of rough than the South course. This means players will either to play three wood or hybrids off the tee, or gamble that they put it where they want with the driver. San Diego may be impervious to rain, but wind is always something to keep an eye on high above the bluffs of the Pacific Ocean. Players will need to finish the North course under par to have a shot at playing the weekend.

Both courses feature Kikuyu grass on the Tees and Fairways, while the greens are a Bentgrass/Poa Annua hybrid. Kikuyu grass is legendary for being “sticky", meaning clubs can get twisted and turned if players take an overly steep path into the ball. You will hear this mentioned several times on the telecast this week, but it's hard to put too much stock into this when picking golfers for your DFS teams. The greens are a Bentgrass/Poa mix, which means they are more likely to be bumpy by Sunday afternoon, than say Champion Bermuda or other private course staples. On Poa greens, I typically look to guys who putt with a pop stroke, most notably this week is Brandt Snedeker. Snedeker has won the Farmers Insurance Open, as well as finishing runner up on two other occasions.

The Field

The South course is a favorite among PGA Tour professionals, a fact that is backed up by its usual star studded field. Among the most notable players this week is defending champion, Jason Day. Day started this year off right by winning the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, and looks to be in top form heading into this week. He is a threat to win any tournament he plays, and considering his current form and course history and familiarity, he is the overwhelming favorite to be the first two time winner on tour this year.

Speaking of the 2015 season, Ricky Fowler (World Ranking #6) joins the field for this year's tournament. Fowler has done wonders for his reputation the last year, going from a fan favorite that purists refused to give credit to because he had yet to win a tournament of stature. That all changed when he won the Players Championship, and then backed that up with wins at the Dunhill Links and the Duetsche Bank Championship Fed Ex Cup event. Fowler brings a circus to whatever tournament he plays in, and I mean that in an awesome way. Fans love him, and he has as big a following as any other player on tour these days.

In addition to Day and Fowler, there are ten other players inside the top 30 of the World Golf Ranking playing this week. While Day is the overwhelming favorite, any of these players in the top 30 are capable of winning and should provide a solid base of competitiveness for the weekend rounds.

There are several stats I am looking towards to guide my DFS picks. The first statistics are Driving Accuracy and Driving Distance. I don't necessarily need a guy who is top 10 in driving distance, I just want someone who is in the top half of the metric, and excels in the accuracy department. Torrey Pines South is the longest course the players will tee it up at this season, and at the very least, the winner cannot not be hamstrung by driving distance. The converse of driving distance is Strokes Gained: Putting, but it will be just as important as driving distance this week. It is why you will see solid ballstrikers with great putting make the cut, while guys who bomb the ball off the tee but struggle on the greens will not. Those three metrics are very straight forward, but they are only acting as a guide, not a determinant. The most important metric this week is Course History, as Torrey Pines is a course that is not mastered on your first time through. This is why guys who have grown up in the area and remember playing the course as a kid, have had a large amount of success at the tournament venue.

Here are five Tour Pro's I am looking at this week, using PP$ on DraftKings as my main qualifier.

Rankings

• 1.)Jason Day: Defending champion, T2 in 2014, T9 in 2013, his results are as good as they come at Torrey Pines. Factor in his absurd length, deft touch around the greens and absolute clutch putting on the greens, and he fits the course profile to a T(ee). He is going to cost you an arm and a leg this week, but locking in the winner is always your first goal, and he is without a doubt the favorite. Building a core around him is possible, you just have to dig deep in the salary pool, or bank on the group of low/middle tier golfers.
• 2.)Brandt Snedeker: Another guy who has had fantastic results at Torrey Pines, Snedeker had a run of three consecutive years where he finished 9th, 1st, and 2nd. He's played very well to start the season, starting the year off with a top 5, before losing in a playoff at the Sony Open. His putting prowess makes him a favorite of mine this week. He finds himself in the perfect vortex of current form and course history, what's not to like?
• 3.)Jamie Lovemark: If we are using course history as an indicator for success, Lovemark fits the bill as a guy who can be a difference maker. Lovemark is super-long off the tee, has survived four of five cuts at Torrey Pines and is a So-Cal native. Throw in his recent high finishes, and he checks off three of our boxes, Course History, Current Form and Driving Distance.
• 4.)Marc Leishman: Leishman is a long hitter who has proven to have a nice touch around the greens. He can run hot and cold, but when he is playing well he can hang with anyone in the world. Excellent Course History at Torrey Pines with a pair of runner-up finishes, he offers nice upside at a reasonable price.
• 5.)Phil Mickelson: Mickelson is the poster boy for So-Cal resident success. He's won the Farmers Insurance a record three times, and has played Torrey Pines more than anyone in the field in this week. Phil is always dangerous when he gets in a groove, and following a 3rd place last week at the Career Builder, Mickelson now finds himself on familiar turf. Phil has grown from a physical magician into a mental one, now capable of gameplanning his way around a course and figuring out how to get to Sunday and be in the hunt. I would expect no less this week, but beware, he will most likely be high owned. I think completely fading him is the wrong idea, as he could easily finish in the top 5 (like he did last week). If you are building studs and duds lineups, adding Phil as your second hammer is something I'd recommend with limited exposure.