FanDuel & DraftKings NBA Value Plays: 12-9-16

Tonight we have a 9 game slate which is near perfect The big stars are nearly all back and on what should be a high scoring night. All the lines are over 200, and we have 3 games over 211 points. This should make a very high cash line, and the importance of hitting on your top plays and finding those value plays who can hit value as well is critical.

No Golden State or Clippers tonight, so that makes of the top plays more enticing tonight for sure.

As always keep close tabs on injuries, and starting lineups all the way up to tip off and be ready to make some swaps as needed throughout the day. Last night Jameer Nelson was a late plug in for me and it paid off, unfortunately in many of those same lineups I replaced Kyle Lowry with John Wall who disappointed. Still managed to cash, but late tweaks can definitely backfire.

Point Guard

Elfrid Payton, Orlando @ Charlotte ($5,400 FanDuel/$4,300 DraftKings)

Payton has been coming off of the bench lately but his last two game she has played 35 and 28 minutes respectively. Payton had a modest 22 DraftKings points in his last game, but the game before that he exploded for 52.25 points.

Tonight we have him projected for 30 minutes and with a usage of rate of 19 and being a heavier focus of the offense along with averaging over 1 FPPM, make Payton an appealing value play at the point tonight.The Hornets come in as one of the worst DvP's against his position.

Be aware he could easily implode tonight, but the potential and ceiling is here.

DFC Projection: FanDuel: 27.9 DraftKings: 31.2

Deron Williams, Dallas vs Indiana ($6,000 FD/$6,000 DraftKings)

I can't help but feel as if Williams is under-priced here. I know 6K isn't quite “value" price, but for a player of Williams Caliber I am all in. A usage rate of 23.56 and averaging a point a minute along with heavy minutes make Williams a safe play, at a fair price.

Williams has produced 29 DraftKings points or more over his last four games. He has produced 29.25, 35.5, 37.25 and 31 DraftKings points in those four games and in a game where minutes are certain, and where they are under-dogs should favor Williams plenty.

DFC Projection: FanDuel: 31.68 DraftKings: 36.36

Shooting Guard

Marcus Smart, Boston vs Toronto ($5,100 FanDuel/$5,500 DraftKings)

Smart qualifies as point guard only on FanDuel.

Smart has had nearly identical outputs over his last two games with 24.75 DraftKings points in both games. 13 POINTS, 3 ASSISTS and as many as 5 rebounds helped Smart reach these numbers. If Isaiah Thomas is out once again with lingering groin injury Smart should continue to see 25 minutes or more. Fouls may be holding him back from the 30 minute mark, so if he control that tonight he should be in great shape.

Tonight the optimizer has him projected for 37 minutes and along with Smart's 18.9 usage rate he makes another fine value option. The Raptors are allowing 57.4 Fantasy points to the Shooting Guard position as well. Smart may not play that position tonight however.

DFC Projection: FanDuel: 31.45 DraftKings: 36.63

Matthew Dellavedova, Milwaukee vs Atlanta ($4,200 FanDuel/$4,000 DraftKings)

Dellavedova also qualifies as PG on DraftKings and PG only on FanDuel

Dellavedova is facing the 18th ranked team in DvP tonight in the Hawks, and playing guards against the Hawks has been a successful strategy most of the season. This should be an uptempo game for sure, and although he isn't the key component to the Bucks offense, he still has a usage rate of 17.56 and averages .99 FPPM.

DFC Projection: FanDuel: 26.1 DraftKings: 29.7

Small Forward

Jae Crowder, Boston vs Toronto ($5,600 FanDuel/$5,700 DraftKings)

Crowder has been playing well and averaging 34 minutes a game over his last six games. Since his three game stretch of 31 plus DraftKings points he sputtered a bit with no more than 26.75 points. Last night without Thomas, Crowder's role expanded producing 34 DraftKings points in 30 minutes.

10 rebounds, and 17 points certainly helped him get there. Tonight he faces off against the Raptors. Both teams are on a back to back so neither has an advantage there. The Optimizer has him playing 35 minutes tonight and his current usage is 18.3, but if Thomas is out an uptick should be expected.

DFC Projection: FanDuel: 29.4 DraftKings: 32.9

Wayne Ellington, Miami @ Cleveland ($4,800 FanDuel/$4,500 DraftKings)

Qualifies as Shooting Guard only on FanDuel.

Injuries have been making the Heat a nice team filled with value plays. Tonight Ellington is the play I am going with. The Heat are expected to lose by 13.5 tonight according to Vegas so this could mean more court time for Ellington, or less depending how the game starts early.

At this price though and with a projected 37 minutes on the court Ellington is worth the risk so you can upgrade elsewhere. In his last two games Ellington has produced 25 and 27.7 DraftKings points and has played more than 33 minutes over his last four games. Blowout or not, the Heat may have no choice but to play Ellington.

DFC Projection: FanDuel: 25.9 DraftKings: 28.49

Power Forward

Dwight Powell, Dallas vs Indiana ($4,000 FanDuel/$4,700 DraftKings)

Powell has been averaging 26.5 DraftKings points over his last three along with just under 29 minutes a game. In his last game he only shot 3-7 from the field but managed to have five rebounds and assist, along with 2 steals. Powell can fill the stat sheet every night and while he is getting the minutes and at this low price he is a great cheap option at Power Forward once again tonight.

This game is one of the lowest scoring projected game son the slate, but the Mav's are only projected to lose by 4 points. Powell should remain consistent with 29 minutes and 0.97 FPPM tonight. The Pacers haven't been great against the Power Forwards this season, and Powell's 17.94 usage plays well into that.

DFC Projection: FanDuel: 26.39 DraftKings: 28.13

Ryan Anderson, Houston @ OKC ($4,500 FanDuel/$4,700 DraftKings)

This should be one of the higher scoring games tonight with a Vegas line of 226 and the Rockets only projected to lose by 1. James Harden is clearly the man in Houston but Anderson had been playing well up until his last two clunkers where his shot all but disappeared. He shot 3-9 and 0-6 in his last two games and didn't score more than 18.5 DraftKings in those two games.

The two games before that he produced 36.75 and 34 DraftKings points. Anderson is very much scoring reliant, and it appears his floor is 18 points, but the ceiling is there and in a high scoring affair like tonight should be a part of the scoring. He is projected for 30 minutes and has a usage rate of 17.5 so he is worth the roster spot tonight if you need another power forward play. Powell will be my first options, but Anderson is intriguing.

DFC Projection: FanDuel: 23.1 DraftKings: 25.5

Center

Nikola Vucevic,Orlando @ Charlotte ($7,000 FanDuel/$5,900 DraftKings)

Vucevic is at a very nice price for value on DraftKings and over on FanDuel not so much, so I may look into Clint Capela on FanDuel ($5,900 FanDuel/ $5,600 DraftKings), especially if I am rostering Harden.

Vucevic is part of this lower scoring game tonight and although he may not play more than 28 minutes, his usage rate of 25 is appealing enough for me to roll with him tonight. He averages 1.21 FPPM and will face the 17th team in DvP against centers allowing 50.1 points a game.

He is averaging 33.8 DraftKings points on the season, and should remain on that path tonight against Zeller, Hibbert and the Hornets. The Magic have been playing Biyombo plenty, so the minute upside may not be here, but what he can do when he is on the court matters most.

DFC Projection: FanDuel: 29.38 DraftKings: 31.46