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With guys like Russell Westbrook and James Harden dropping 60+ fantasy point games, they will be staples in the lineups for many of us. But... To grab those players, value is crucial in NBA, just like any other DFS sport. Value opens up through injuries, site pricing, and rotational changes. We are staying on top of the ever changing rotation, and injury news on a daily basis. Value plays will be given based on game type, and also mid-range options in comparison to the top-priced guys. Sometimes value doesn't mean a near punt price, but a few thousand dollar difference from a Stephen Curry.
Point guards below $6,000 on both sites are pretty limited, and even as we get into the end of the season here, not much seems to be opening up. The Denver situation has not been reliable for Jameer Nelson and fantasy production of late. Nelson has not scored more than 20 fantasy points in the last four games he has played. Instead, we have seen Jamal Murray play well in limited minutes, behind Nelson. Murray has played 24, 18, 26, and 30 over the last four games. That 30 was a spot start with Nelson out. There have been talks of getting Murray more minutes, which would make sense with how he is playing. Isaiah Thomas is one of the worst defenders in the league, and Boston would likely use Smart/Bradley on other options. Murray is $4,000 on DraftKings, and $3,700 on FanDuel. He is more for a tournament lineup, where you can go stars and scrubs. Denver-Boston is sitting with one of the highest totals on the night.
Much like Thomas, Dennis Schroder is near him when it comes to defensive points guards. Cory Joseph will draw him, which is a plus matchup for him. Joseph has started to trend upwards, after a rough few games filling in for the injured Kyle Lowry. Atlanta allows the ninth most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season. Joseph is averaging 11-4-4 over the last five games. His upside is a bit limited as DeRozan hogs the usage, but he is a decent value in cash games.
If you are into narratives, Yogi Ferrell will be going up against the team that cut him earlier this season, Brooklyn Nets. Dallas has a 112 total, which is miles above their season norm. Ferrell is averaging 11-2-5 over the last five games, playing right around 30 minutes per game. The Nets allow the second most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards, which sets up Ferrell to get back at his former team. On the other side of this one, Jeremy Lin has put up 20+ fantasy points in four of the last five games, with the exception of the Utah game. Lin has played 24 and 25 minutes over the last two games, and should be around that mark here. In this game, I also don't mind using Wesley Matthews, who is getting back into form from injury. There is no better matchup than Brooklyn.
I will be grabbing Avery Bradley at will right now, given his price is low from his return from a lengthy injury. He played 30 minutes against Golden State, and should be around that tonight. He gets a much better matchup against the Nuggets, who allow the second most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards.
There are plenty of cheap centers to go after tonight. Starting with potential chalk, Mason Plumlee, whose fantasy relevance is decided on Nikola Jokic's status. Jokic has missed the last two games, and Plumlee has capitalized with back-to-back double doubles, alongside ten assists in those two games. Plumlee would thrive in this matchup, as Boston ranks bottom ten in rebounding, and against opposing centers.
If Jokic plays, the easy cheap pivot is Clint Capela. The Houston center should see 25-30 minutes tonight, as that's been the case in the last four games. On DraftKings, he has only been below 20 fantasy points in two of the last ten, and his minutes were in the teens in those. He has been 30+ fantasy points in five of the last ten, and posted 14 and 9 against Chicago earlier this season. A two center approach on DraftKings is always a wise one, especially when they are on the cheaper side. Plus there are not that many centers to pay up for. Greg Monroe is also in play, who has averaged 16-12-5 against Indy this season. He has also scored 30+ fantasy points in six of the last ten games.
Brook Lopez is out tonight, but the man behind him, Justin Hamilton, does not see a huge increase. In the five games Lopez has missed, Hamilton only sees a four minute bump, averaging 23 minutes. I do have some interest in Trevor Booker, however. He sees a 2% usage bump without Lopez, and a small increase in FPPM. Dirk Nowitzki in that same game is your ideal mid-range target, and Brooklyn possesses the best fantasy matchup for opposing players.
As for more forwards, Washington presents two GPP targets tonight, and both are in different price ranges. Bojan Bogandovic is certainly someone who can get hot off the bench, and we have seen it in two of the last three games. The starter, Otto Porter, is always a wild card when it comes to fantasy production. Taking on a Kings team that is trending downwards defensively, puts Washington's secondary players on the map in GPPs. Markieff Morris is included, but high risk.