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In this week's Making Sense of Stats we look at the difference in efficiency and volume scoring between two of the NBA's top scorers, Stephen Curry and James Harden. Curry has become a true efficiency scorer this season thanks to the rapid improvement of the Warriors roster around him. While James Harden has become a high-volume scorer as the Rockets roster has deteriorated around him.
Let's take a look at some of their core scoring numbers comparing this season to the last:
As you can see, Harden's scoring and free throw attempts have increased nicely while his field goal percentage has actually dropped from an already fairly low number for a star scorer. Curry's numbers have done the exact inverse. We've seen his scoring and free throw attempts fall just slightly while his field goal percentage has increased, allowing him to play less minutes this season. The minutes Curry plays now, 33.1 compared to 36.5 from last season aren't great for his raw numbers, but it's helped him stay much healthier than Harden this season as Harden has dealt with nagging injuries multiple different times this year. Curry is going to be much more rested and ready to carry his team in the playoffs this spring. However, Harden hasn't had much of a choice, as Dwight Howard has missed the majority of the season with various ailments.
Where are these two players best at on the floor?
As you can see, Curry is an excellent shooter from just about everywhere, but deals with some mid-range issues that almost every star player deals with, as it's the easy place to defend and the toughest place to shoot on a basketball court. Curry is the league's most elite three-point shooter when he's contested, shown by the elite numbers he has even when contesting is not considered, like in the above chart. Curry is most elite on the left side of the court, working towards the middle, as most right-handed guards are. Harden on the other hand, has a chart that looks entirely different, a lot less green, to put it simply. He's a true volume scorer that has taken nearly 500 shots this season from the painted area, while Curry is under 300. Harden does do one thing very similar to Curry, maximizes his point potential on each shot. Let's take a look at that next.
Now let's take dig deeper and see what kind of shots they are getting and taking:
The key thing to look at on both of these players charts is where they are taking the majority of their shots. As mentioned above, both of these players look to maximize the point potential on each shot as much as possible, but in slightly different ways. If Harden is shooting a jumper, it's most likely to be a three or a pull up that can draw a foul. His goal on each and every play is to get three points, no matter where he's shooting from. While Curry launches more from deep, you still see that he's not taking mid-range jumpers nearly at all. If he beats his defender off the dribble or with a pump fake, he's getting awfully close to the rim most of the time. As you can see on Curry's chart, he's consistently getting exactly the shots he wants. He's even smart enough to shoot more shots from the left wing because he's shooting better there. Now if you look at Harden, the side of the key he shoots the better than the average player from is reversed due to him being left handed. It's easier to step into your shot from these particular sides depending on your handedness, so it gives Harden a real advantage on that side of the court.
Two top five players in the NBA approach their offensive games so similarly and differently at the same time. While you can argue one is better than the other all you like, the differences are what make basketball such an exciting game to watch each time out and why these players perform differently against different defenses.
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