Minutes to Win It – Monitoring NBA Rotations 3/10/15

In this segment, I'll be breaking down players who are seeing a significant increase or decrease in minutes due to new (or overlooked) circumstances. I'll also be looking at how injuries and/or trades have affected these players. Each player's situation is unique, and I'll help you find the matchups and scenarios to exploit or avoid due to each player's change in court time. Each player will have be tagged with “TARGET", “MONITOR", or “AVOID". For today's article, I'll be focusing on DraftKings scoring.

Quincy Pondexter – (SG/SF) New Orleans Pelicans – AVOID

In DFS, targeting players who are seeing big minutes is generally a good strategy, especially for cash games, but sometimes you need to look deeper. Pondexter has seen 32.5 MPG over the last 8 games, yet is averaging jus 15.28 FP per contest over that span, including a 34.75 FP performance against the Nets. If you take that abnormality out, he is averaging a measly 12.5 FP per contest. Don't get caught up in looking at game logs, he is an easy avoid.

Reggie Jackson – (PG) Detroit Pistons – TARGET

Jackson is still underpriced throughout the industry in his new role, and you would be best served to target him while his price is still depressed. In 7 games with the Pistons, he has a usage rate of 29.6%, compared to a usage rate of 20.3% with the Thunder since Russell Westbrook returned to action on November 28^th. He is averaging 32.8 MPG since his arrival in Detroit, which is a huge jump from his 18.7 MPG in his final 7 games with OKC. He is averaging 1.1 FP per minute with Detroit, which is a sizeable bump from the 0.85 he averaged over the same 7-game span with OKC. He is a fine target in all formats now, listed at $7,000 on DraftKings and $6,900 on FanDuel.

Elfrid Payton – (PG) Orlando Magic – TARGET

While Payton's increase in minutes is small, his increase in production has been noticeable over the past few games. Payton is averaging 39 MPG and 39.5 FPPG over his last 3, compared to 30.7 MPG and 24.5 FPPG over his previous 7. His usage rate has bumped up from his season average of 17.6% up to 19.6% over the last 3 games. While we know he will never be a usage monster, that slight bump is certainly encouraging for him moving forward. He is stuffing the stat sheet, averaging 12.7 points, 9.7 assists and 6 rebounds per game during this span. Monitor him moving forward, but continue to target him in DFS at fair price tags of $6,000 on DraftKings and $6,200 on FanDuel.

Tony Parker – (PG) San Antonio Spurs – TARGET

Due to his role in a Gregg Popovich system, Parker is very unlikely to see minutes in the mid-high 30s on a regular basis, but his minutes have solidified along with his production. He is on fire, averaging 25 points, 4 assists and 2.7 rebounds per game over his last 3, compared with a paltry 6.8/4/1.8 over his previous 5. His minutes have bumped up to 30.3 per game over his last 3 after averaging just 24.4 over his last 5. The Spurs are making a late push for playoff seeding, and Parker is the engine that keeps the offense going. His price is highway robbery right now at $5,500 on DraftKings and $5,800 on FanDuel.