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Just two NBA games tonight as Milwaukee-Miami square off after an exciting Game 1 and Portland-Denver are the nightcap after Portland stole Game 1 on the road. We also get the bump in playoff basketball where we see shortened rotations and don't have to deal with the poor rotation/injury news that we dealt with over the final portion of the season. As usual, I will be looking at DraftKings Sportsbook for odds.
Milwaukee Bucks (-5) Vs. Miami Heat
Milwaukee won Game 1 in a thrilling overtime finish. The shooting wasn't particularly great on either side and both of these teams are better defensively. While I expect Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo to have better offensive games, it is tough to rely on Duncan Robinson AND Goran Dragic shooting like they are Klay Thompson. The total is set at 224, and I like the under again. This should be a pretty grinding series that doesn't hit these higher over/under set.
Looking at some player props, Bam Adebayo under 17.5 is sitting at -120. He isn't a high usage player and has struggled against Milwaukee in his career. He has hit 18 or more points in just four of 13 games where he played over 28 minutes. The Bucks ranked 5th in defensive efficiency over the regular season against opposing centers. They also allowed the 6th fewest points per game.
Jrue Holiday went 0-5 from the three-point line in Game 1, but I wouldn't bank on that happening again. He has generally been around two threes per game player over the last three years. He was having a career-high of 3P% in 2021. Holiday is going to get his chances again and I like him to hit two or more at -155.
Portland Trail Blazers Vs. Denver Nuggets (-2)
Denver fell flat in the second half of Game 1 and ended up losing 123-109. Damian Lillard and Nikola Jokic put up their usual numbers, but Denver failed to get enough from their backcourt. Denver is really going to need some scoring from their backcourt to help. Austin Rivers played 33 minutes in Game 1 and will need to keep these minutes. Rivers isn't going to be a high usage player with everything running through Porter and Jokic, but he is going to have his opportunities. I like the over of 10.5 points at +110. He has been shooting over 40% from three in the last ten games and averaging ten points in 28 minutes per game.
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