NBA GPP Green Light 11-3-17

A 12-game slate to wrap up the work week is a good way to end it. We do have a few injuries to talk about, as Elfrid Payton and D.J. Augustin are ruled out tonight against the Bulls. This will make Shelvin Mack a popular value play tonight, and Jonathan Simmons gets a bump as well. The Lakers will be without Larry Nance for tonight, and the foreseeable future, which means Kyle Kuzma, Julius Randle, and Brook Lopez will handle the minutes in the front court. Looking at totals, Los Angeles-Brooklyn sit at 227, with the Lakers being 2.5 favorites. Games in Philly, Washington, and New York all have totals over 200. The stay away games are San Antonio-Charlotte and Utah-Toronto sit below 200, and don't have a ton of upside. Lets get to it.

DK Salary: $10,600 / FD Salary: $10,600

LeBron James should garnish his usual ownership, but that doesn't mean he is a bad tournament play. At $10,600 on both sites, facing a Washington team that is allowing the most fantasy points, and real points to opposing small forwards, I will be locking in James. In three games last season, James averaged 27-9-10 against the Wizards, with 3.0 blocks + steals per game. That equals out to 59.3 DK points per game and 54.9 FD points per game. James ranks 5th on the slate in touches per game, and is averaging 0.53 fantasy points per touch. There is a lot of great correlation in this game, especially given Cleveland's lack of defense to start the season. Cleveland-Washington has the second highest total on the slate, and the Wizards are four point favorites. I will be looking at this game a plenty.

DK Salary: $7,200 / FD Salary: $7,500

After a couple of down games for Nikola Vucevic, we saw his prices go down on both sites. Ownership will go down too, with a boatload of centers to use on this slate. Orlando is in a great spot tonight, and Vucevic is one of the few Magic guys playable. Chicago is allowing the 7th most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season, and rank 23rd in defensive efficiency. The Bulls are not that bad of a rebounding team, but are allowing the third most rebounds per game to centers this season. Averaging 19-8-2 this season, with 1.9 blocks + steals per game, and his 24% usage rate, he will be a core play for me tonight. He is assisting on 15% of the Magic baskets this season, which is in the top half among true centers.

DK Salary: $4,700 / FD Salary: $5,300

Kris Dunn has played 22 and 29 minutes in his first two games back from injury. Shooting 9 and 15 times in those games, I am intrigued in a matchup against Orlando. While Orlando has been a surprise to start the season, the rank 17th in points allowed, but have limited opponent FG%. Dunn has seen a 29.5% usage rate in the first two games with Chicago, and if minutes can stay in the upper 20's, I have some interest. Dunn is a bit of a high risk play given he is averaging 4.5 turnovers per game and has had five personal fouls in each game so far. At the cheaper price tags, Dunn should get overlooked on tonight's slate, and has 30+ fantasy point upside if he can limited the turnovers. The defensive stats have been a nice bonus as well, and add to his floor/ceiling.

DK Salary: $8,800 / FD Salary: $9,400

Kristaps Porzingis is questionable for tonight's game with an illness, so we do need to monitor. But, I will offer some alternatives if he does sit. Ben Simmons on FanDuel at the higher price tag, and Paul Millsap are two guys I am eyeing. He has played 98% of his minutes at power forward this season, as Phoenix ranks 17th in defensive efficiency and 15th in fantasy points allowed. Pretty pedestrian defensive numbers, but Porzingis' usage continues to be something to target. He leads forwards in usage rate this season, and we see it on a nightly basis. He averages 0.45 real points per touch, and 0.69 fantasy points per touch, which is very nice. Phoenix are allowing 116 points per game, opponents to shoot 46% from the field, and 40% from three. Porzingis is averaging 22 field goal attempts per game this season. Already dropping a handful of 50+ fantasy point games, I am on board for tonight against the Suns.

DK Salary: $6,100 / FD Salary: $5,900

You are going to want some exposure to this game. There is so much to breakdown here, as Larry Nance being out clears up some minutes in the front court. They will be popular plays, but not necessarily reasons to fade in tournaments. D'Angelo Russell gets the revenge game, which will make him a popular play tonight. As I mentioned above a 227 total and the highest projected pace game on the board, I can't really rule anyone out of consideration. However, Brandon Ingram is someone I like tonight, and I am hoping gets overlooked. I am curious to see what the Lakers do with the Nance injury, but Ingram is playing 93% of the time at small forward, after playing 79% there last year. I would like to see more rebounding out of Ingram's 6'11 frame, but he is averaging 14-4-3 this season, and has ten steals over the last three games. The Nets are allowing the third most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season. These are really reasonable prices, and Ingram has potential for 35+ fantasy points tonight.