NBA GPP Green Light 12-18-17

Happy Monday everyone! We are a week out from Christmas and the NBA has given us plenty to be thankful for to kick that week off. We have a total of 10 games on today's slate, a only one, however with a projected total that should be over 220, and plenty of injuries to keep an eye on. Right now, the Warriors at Lakers contest is off the board but that should be the highest projected total of the night, and we have Utah, Dallas, and Miami in paced up games. The Warriors have already given us their injury report, with Draymond, Zaza, and Livingston ruled out, but Utah, New York, Houston, and Minnesota all have injuries to keep an eye on.

**Narrative Alert (insert siren emoji here) The Lakers are retiring Kobe's jersey tonight prior to the game against Golden State, so yeah, like, give me all the Lakers and Warriors**

DK Salary: $6,900 / FD Salary: $7,300

This may seem like chasing but Lonzo looks to be in an excellent spot as the Lakers face off against the Warriors tonight. Ball has been playing extremely well recently, notching at least 40 fantasy points in three of his last four, and has actually been shooting the ball fairly well. Over his last four, he has connected on 45 percent of his attempts, including 35 percent from three-point range. While those numbers don't particularly stand out as great, they are significantly better than his season average, which is something we have to pay attention to. He continues to be a monster when it comes to notching peripherals, and has averaged 7.3 rebounds and 8.5 assists over the last four.

While the Warriors are generally a scary team to target against, they have been a shell of themselves recently since the loss of Steph Curry, and have ranked 23rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency over the last five games. They have surrendered 25.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 7.6 assists over that stretch, and have allowed opponents to shoot 42.5 percent from the floor and 40.5 percent from beyond-the-arc. The Warriors rank 20th in the NBA in fantasy points allowed to point guards, giving up 46.11 fantasy points per game to the position, and those struggles should continue tonight with Ball. This will be a fast-paced game with plenty of scoring and Ball will be spearheading those efforts for the Lakers.

DK Salary: $7,300 / FD Salary: $7,900

As expected, Joel Embiid has been ruled out for tonight's game after the triple-overtime loss to OKC on Saturday, which means Saric is a great play against the Bulls. Despite the slower pace of this game, it should still be a great game to target, with plenty of scoring, as both these teams have struggled at times on defense this season. The Bulls have improved as of late, but I am not buying into it, which is why I am interested in attacking them tonight. The Bulls rank 24th in the NBA in defensive efficiency against power forwards this season, giving up 21 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists to the position, and have given up 42.4 fantasy points per game.

Saric will not only see a boost in minutes because Embiid is out, but their latest addition, Trevor Booker, is out as well. Saric's minutes will be secure tonight, and we could see him on the court for around 36-38 minutes. Without Embiid and Booker on the floor this season, Saric has averaged 32.67 fantasy points per 36 minutes, with a 22.7 percent usage rate. In the five games that Embiid has sat out, Saric has averaged 33.3 DraftKings points per game, as opposed to 23.8 per game in the 22 games with Embiid. In addition to these guys being out, Saric is also in a position to take advantage of two specific flaws in the Bulls defense tonight, and those are on spot-ups and paint defense. The Bulls are allowing 1.01 points per play on spot-up possessions, and have allowed opponents to shoot almost 44 percent in the paint this season. Saric is spotting up on 36 percent of his possessions this season, and connecting on 44 percent of those possessions, and he is attempting almost 40 percent of his shots in the paint.

DK Salary: $5,400 / FD Salary: $6,100

While tonight's matchup between the Hawks and Heat will be a slower paced and is only projected at 205.5 points, that doesn't mean we can't attack it, which is why the next three players are from that game. The Hawks are shorthanded in the frontcourt with Mike Muscala and DeWayne Dedmon sidelined by injury. Collins just returned from injury himself, and has been productive since being back. He has played 20 and 24 minutes in his first two games back, and has posted over 28 fantasy points in both games. It should be noted that his outstanding performance against the Grizzlies came on the back of four blocks and two steals, but that is the kind of production Collins has put up all season long. He is averaging 1.06 fantasy points per minute on the season and has eclipsed 25 fantasy points in 12 of his 23 games.

The Heat, while generally a tough matchup, have struggled recently with centers due to their lack of depth at the position. Miami is without Hassan Whiteside and James Johnson tonight, and could possibly be without Justise Winslow as well. Over their last ten games, the Heat have surrendered 27.1 points, 15.8 rebounds, two assists, and a combined 3.4 blocks and steals to centers. Collins is doing all of his offensive damage in the paint this season, attempting 100 percent of his shots at the rim or in the mid-range, where the Heat have struggled significantly as of late. Miami has allowed opponents to shoot 64.1 percent at the rim, and 44 percent on mid-range attempts, since losing Whiteside. Because he has only been back for two games, Collins could go under the radar tonight, and he absolutely should not be overlooked.

DK Salary: $5,400 / FD Salary: $5,500

I mentioned that I would be heavily targeting tonight's game between the Hawks and Heat, and I am mainly looking at two players who will benefit from injuries on the Heat side of the ball. Miami is without Whiteside, James Johnson, and potentially Justise Winslow, opening up a heap of minutes across the board. Richardson has made the most of his minutes recently, 27.3 DraftKings points per game over his last six games and he has played at least 30 minutes in nine of the last 10 games. He has double-digit field-goal attempts in all but four of those games, and he has eclipsed 25 fantasy points in six of the last 10 games, as well. He erupted for 28 points, three blocks, three rebounds, and two assists against the Clippers his last time out, and is in a great spot against the Hawks.

Atlanta has struggled on defense this season, surrendering 108.7 points per game on the season, and have allowed opponents to torch them from three-point range. Opponents are attempting 32.3 shots from beyond-the-arc, and shooting 37.6 percent on those attempts. Small forwards, in particular, have enjoyed success against them this season, as they have averaged 43.4 fantasy points per game and Atlanta ranks dead last in defensive efficiency against the position over their first 29 games. Spot-up shooters have been an Achilles heel, as they have surrendered 1.03 points per spot-up possession. Richardson, while struggling with efficiency at times, is spotting up on 36 percent of his possessions. J-Rich torched the Hawks the last time these teams face off, to the tune of 21 points, and he should have no issues doing so again tonight.

DK Salary: $3,200 / FD Salary: $3,900

We know that picking on Atlanta with big men is a recipe for success, unless your name is Marc Gasol, and tonight we have several choices to do that with. Because they are shorthanded at both the power forward and center positions, guys like Jordan Mickey and Bam Adebayo have been thrust into larger roles. Mickey has made the most of his extended minutes and is coming off a huge outing against the Clippers. He posted 27 fantasy points on the back of 9 points, two steals, three blocks, four rebounds, and two assists, and performed extremely well against the Hornets in the game before that, as well. It is likely that Mickey will play almost 30 minutes if Winslow were to sit tonight, but he should be in line for 22-24 minutes if that doesn't happen. With Whiteside and Johnson off the floor this season, albeit a small sample size, Mickey is averaging 1.07 fantasy points per minute with a 13.5 percent usage rate. His usage rate stays the same when you take Winslow off the floor, as well, but his production jumps to 1.18 fantasy points per minute. He played limited minutes against the Hawks in their previous meeting this season and he posted 13 fantasy points in 14.4 minutes. I'm not expecting Mickey to put up a massive score but at his sub-$4k salary he only needs 22-25 fantasy points for us to be happy.