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One Day Fantasy Baseball One Day Fantasy Baseball

Happy Valentine's Day everyone! If you are all alone tonight, or lucky enough to have a date that wants to watch basketball all night. then you are in luck because we have a massive 12-game slate tonight, with only two tomorrow, as we head into the All-Star break. It should be an interesting slate, as we will likely have to deal with players resting and plenty of injuries, and we have a few potential blowouts on the horizon. All 12 games have projected totals over 200, and at least six games have totals over 215, with the Lakers at Pelicans game topping the slate with a massive 227.5 total and the Warriors at Trail Blazers is just behind that at 225.5. It should be a very high-scoring night across the industry and these are five players that I think can help you crush your tournaments tonight.

Kemba Walker, PG, Charlotte Hornets

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

35 109.75 30 49.9 30.54 39.9 38.5

DK Salary: $8,600 / FD Salary: $8,600

The Charlotte Hornets are heading to Orlando tonight to take on the Magic, which means that Dwight Howard will be the primary focus off most DFS players tonight in a huge revenge game. While I do love Dwight tonight, he isn't my favorite target from the Charlotte side of this game. That honor goes to Kemba Walker, who I expect to be a lower-owned pivot off of Dwight tonight. This is a road game for Walker, as well, which will hopefully help sway people away from him as there is a dumb idea out there that Walker has "home vs road" splits. Walker has been up and down of late, with 44 fantasy points against the Raptors after posting just 30.75 against the Jazz, but over his last six games, he is averaging 41.8 fantasy points on 26.8 points per game and 44 percent shooting. He has posted two huge games against the Magic already this season, and he is averaging 57 points per game against them in those matchups. The matchup couldn't be any better for Walker as the Magic rank 30th in fantasy points allowed, giving up 49.66 per game to the position, and they rank 27th in defensive efficiency to the position over the last ten games. They are giving up 25.6 points on 50 percent shooting, 6.4 rebounds, 8.2 assists, and 1.6 steals over that span. They have allowed opposing point guards to shoot a staggering 42.2 percent from beyond-the-arc over that span, as well, which bodes well for Walker as he has at least 10 three-point attempts in five of his last ten outings. They are the ninth-worst defense against the pick-and-roll, giving up 17.5 points per game and 43.7 percent shooting on the play, and Walker is operating in the pick-and-roll on 50 percent of his possessions and is averaging 11.4 points per game on the play. All of this adds up to Walker being in a great spot tonight and he will be a lock in all formats for me.

Myles Turner, C, Indiana Pacers

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

29

109.75

30

53

22.3

29.05

30.41

DK Salary: $6,800 / FD Salary: $6,800

The Brooklyn Nets are on the slate, so naturally, I am again targeting a big man against them. They allowed another big man to hit 6x value on Monday, with DeAndre Jordan putting up 44.25 fantasy points, marking the 14th time that a center has hit 6x value against them this season. Well, tonight, the center that is going to crush value against them will be Myles Turner. Turner has been an unpredictable fantasy asset of late, with two games below 15 fantasy points and only one game above 30 in his last four, which is why he is strictly a tournament option for me. He does, however, have double-digit field goal attempts in back-to-back games, which is promising, and double-digit points in those games. There is a lot to love about the matchup for Turner, as the Nets are allowing a league-high 53 fantasy points per game to centers and they are giving up 46 rebounds per game. Turner isn't a great rebounder but he is averaging 9.7 rebounds per game in three matchups against Brooklyn this season. He is also averaging 20 points against them and 43.3 fantasy points. Brooklyn struggles to defend the roll man in the pick-and-roll, allowing 9.6 points per game and 53.2 percent shooting on the play, and Turner, while not terribly efficient, is operating as the roll man on almost 40 percent of his possessions this season. Turner's value should be further boosted tonight by his ability to block shots, as he is averaging 2.1 blocks per game, and is facing a Nets team that is giving up a league-high 5.8 blocks per game to opponents. He is priced up across the industry because of his matchup, which is fine, as I am hoping that people will shy away from using him here. In addition to Turner, Thaddeus Young and Victor Oladipo are in great spots and can be used if you don't have the open spot at center for Turner.

Derrick Favors, PF/C, Utah Jazz

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

29

-

30

47.2

20.08

27.77

28.55

DK Salary: $5,600 / FD Salary: $5,800

The Phoenix Suns will head to Utah to take on a Jazz team that has won 10 consecutive games, and the Utah Jazz will likely be popular options because of this matchup. They have been the sixth-best offense during that span of 10 games, averaging 112 points per game, a whopping ten points over their season average. One of the most impressive parts of their improved offense and their win streak is that they have done so with both Ricky Rubio and Donovan Mitchell sidelined by injuries, at times, and Rodney Hood and Joe Johnson traded off the team. Favors has been outstanding for Utah in back-to-back games, posting exactly 35.75 fantasy points in those games, and averaging 12.4 points and eight rebounds over his last seven games. He is putting up decent numbers in limited minutes, as the big man has averaged 26.8 fantasy points in 28.2 minutes over the last seven. He has seen a pretty big boost in both usage and production with Rubio sidelined, along with Hood and Johnson out of town, as he is averaging 1.13 fantasy points on a 21 percent usage rate in 215.6 minutes with those three off the floor. Rubio is questionable for tonight's game, which could put a slight damper on his production, but even with Rubio on the floor, Favors is averaging a 20.3 percent usage rate and .96 fantasy points per minute. There is plenty to like about Favors' matchup tonight, as the Suns rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to power forwards and have given up 47.2 fantasy points per game to the position on the season. They are giving up 45.3 rebounds per game, which boosts his rebounding upside, and have given up 13.3 second-chance points and 47.3 points in the paint. Favors is second on the team in paint points with 8.5, behind only Rudy Gobert, and he also trails Gobert in second-chance points with 2.6 per game. All in all, things look great for Favors tonight, and he is too cheap if he is going to continue with his recent production.

Brook Lopez, C, Los Angeles Lakers


Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

27

111.25

18

49.1

28.67

30.47

30.31

DK Salary: $5,000 / FD Salary: $5,600

If Myles Turner is too expensive for you, or you are wanting to roll out more than one centers on a site where you can, then maybe I can interest you in Brook Lopez. It has been incredibly tough to trust Lopez this season, mostly because Luke Walton has toyed with his minutes, but of late he has been getting playing time and has been a solid fantasy asset in that time. He has played at least 20 minutes in five-straight games, posting at least 25 fantasy points in four of those games, and at least 13 field goal attempts in four of those five games, as well. He has shot fairly well in those games, connecting on 46.9 percent of his overall attempts and 41.4 percent of his attempts from beyond-the-arc, and is averaging 4.6 rebounds and 2.4 assists during that span. His price around the industry hasn't really increased to account for his recent role, and production, making this a great spot to target him. It is also important to note that Lopez is benefiting from the absence of Nance, Clarkson, and Ball, and he is averaging .98 fantasy points per minute with a 27.5 percent usage rate with those three off the floor. The matchup against the Pelicans looks mediocre on paper if you are taking a cursory glance at the DvP, but an in-depth look tells an entirely different story. The Pelicans are 22nd in defensive efficiency against centers over the last ten games, the amount of time that Cousins has been out, and they are allowing 20.6 points 52.5 percent shooting, 19 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.5 blocks over that span. They are giving up a league-high 50.2 rebounds per game over that span, as well, making this a great spot to target Lopez tonight.

Delon Wright, PG/SG, Toronto Raptors

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

22

111.75

18

47.2

17.67

20.46

20.68

DK Salary: $3,900 / FD Salary: $4,400

I have tossed out plenty of midrange and top-tier options for tonight's slate, so now it is time for my GPP dart throw. As crazy as it sounds, however, I think that Delon Wright may end up being one of the best value plays on the slate, and one that I don't think people will be looking at here. This is the second night of a back-to-back for Toronto, and their last game before the All-Star break, so there is a chance that the Raptors attempt to limit the minutes of their starters, which will lead to more minutes for Wright and VanVleet, but even if they don't, Wright should see plenty of run in an outstanding matchup. Wright saw 21 minutes last night against the Heat, posting 10 points with two assists and a rebound, and he has played 20 or more minutes in five-straight games for Toronto. Toronto has been blowing opponents out of late, with their average margin of victory over their last six games being double-digit points, which has led to some minutes for Wright, but he is also part of their regular rotation. He has posted at least 20 fantasy points in three of the last five games, as well, and he has historically performed well against the Bulls. In three games against Chicago this season, Wright has averaged 34.3 fantasy points per game. Now, most may be quick to point out that Wright put up a massive 61.3 fantasy points against them in their previous game, but in the two games before that, he averaged 1.03 fantasy points per minute against this team. The Bulls have been terrible against opposing point guards this season, giving up 47.2 fantasy points per game, but they have been really bad at times against bench guards. They are the league's worst transition defense, giving up 17.8 points per game and 57.3 percent shooting in transition, and Wright happens to be one of the team's best transition players this season. The Raptors bench has been outstanding of late and I expect that to continue with Wright and Fred VanVleet leading the way tonight.



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