NBA Winners from Downtown: 10-31-15

By: Zach Qualtieri, Updated October 31, 2015

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The first Saturday of the NBA brings us a nice 6 game slate. Seven out of the 12 teams are on the back end of a back-to-back. Winners From Downtown is bringing the top daily picks for your cash games, alongside some value plays, and Vegas notes. Be sure to check out our minutes tool, and Colossus lineup optimizer.

Projections show DraftKings prices and fantasy points.

Vegas Notes

- The Clippers-Kings game is the highest projected scoring total of the night at 214. The Clippers are huge -11.5 point home favorites, so the risk of blowout is there.

- Pelicans-Warriors have a 213.5 total tonight, and the Warriors are slight four point favorites. This is the game I will be targeting the most.

- The biggest blowout potential is Grizzlies-Nets, with Memphis being -12 point home favorites. This is an easy game to fade on this short slate.

- Jazz-Pacers have the lowest total of the night. While I normally do not like targeting low point totals, on a short slate this game has pieces to look at.

Top Picks

John Wall (PG), Wizards
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
Knicks	35	1.13	16.5	28.1	41.75	106	39.55

Salary: FD: $9,600 DK: $9,200

John Wall is my favorite point guard on a slate loaded with studs. He may not have as much upside as Stephen Curry but has a fantastic match up against the Knicks. The Knicks have really struggled on the defensive side of the ball to start the season. They are allowing 104.5 points per game and 21.5 assists a game. The assists number really jumps out for me as Wall is one of the best in the game at dropping dimes. He was second in the NBA last season with 10 assists per game and is averaging 8 a game in two games this season. I am fully expecting Wall to dominate in a game that should be up tempo and drop a double-double with a couple of steals.

Eric Bledsoe (SG), Suns
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
@ Trail Blazers	36	1.00	19.6	24.3	37.0	101	36.0

Salary: FD: $7,100 DK: $7,300

Shooting Guard is a bit of a wasteland on this short slate. Your choices at the top are Eric Bledsoe, the inconsistent Klay Thompson or the injury prone Bradley Beal. Bledsoe has to be the choice if you are spending up at the position. He has struggled a bit to start the season averaging below 30 fantasy points but I do not expect that to last. Bledsoe can get you points in a variety of ways and is a triple-double threat every time he takes the floor. He is one of the best rebounding guards in the NBA and also a great defender. He scored 33.5 fantasy points last night against this same Trail Blazers team and I am expecting him to have an even bigger game tonight.

Paul George (SF), Pacers
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
Jazz	33	1.02	18.9	28.2	33.73	96.5	33.66

Salary: FD: $8,600 DK: $8,100

Paul George is a steal at his prices. He is fully healthy after that nasty broken leg last summer and has been playing great. What is the most encouraging sign for George is he has not had a limitations on his minutes going for at least 35 in every game this season. George can get you points in a variety of ways, which gives him a high floor. He has struggled with his shot to begin the season only shooting 28% but has still averaged over 17 points a game. If his shot is falling tonight, George could be in for a huge night.

Blake Griffin (PF), Clippers
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
Kings	333	1.17	19.7	30.0	42.52	113	38.61

Salary: FD: $10,000 DK: $9,500

Blake Griffin has started the season on fire and gets to feast on the Kings tonight. Griffin is shooting 68% to start the season and is averaging almost 30 points a game. He light the Kings up in the Clippers season opener going for 33 points. There is a question of blowout with Vegas having the Clippers as -11.5 point favorites but that does not scare me away. Against the Mavericks Griffin put up 45.5 fantasy points in only 27 minutes. I firmly believe this game will be close as the Clippers previous meeting was and for Griffin to play deep into the 4th quarter having a huge game.

DeMarcus Cousins (C), Kings
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
@Clippers	35	1.43	22	33.8	44.41	102.5	50.5

Salary: FD: $10,900 DK: $10,000

DeMarcus Cousins is a moody player that plays better when angry. Cousins should be plenty angry in this game as he has gone on record as stating he hates the Clippers. He is by far the most talented center in the NBA and an angry Cousins is even better for fantasy owners. He can do everything on the court and has even added a three point shot to his arsenal. On opening night he drained four of them and is shooting 57% in the early going. I am fully expecting Cousins to have another huge game against the Clippers and rake up his third straight 20/10 game to start the season.

Value Plays

George Hill (PG - IND) FD: $6,500 DK: $6,000

If you are not spending up for a stud at the point guard slot, George Hill is the place to look. Hill has started off the season on fire. Hill has scored at least 19 points in every game this season and is averaging 32 fantasy points a game. The Jazz are a tough defensive team and Vegas has this game with the lowest total of the night but Hill still offers the best value at the position on this slate. Expect Hill to continue to see 38 plus minutes and score 30 plus fantasy points.

Rodney Hood (SG/FD, SF/DK - UTA) FD: $4,300 DK: $3,900

Rodney Hood has locked up the starting shooting guard spot for the Jazz and has played great to start the season. Hood can light it up and has the green light to shoot in this offense. He has taken at least 29 shots in the first two games with 13 of those being three pointers. He doesn't do much more on the court besides scoring and can get into foul trouble which affects his minutes but offers great value on this slate.

Kristaps Porzingis (PF - NY) FD: $4,900 DK: $4,500

Kristaps Porzingis has shown flashes of his immense talent. He was the number 6 pick in the draft for a reason. In his two games this season he has not scored less than 26 fantasy points. He has not shot well to start the season but has been aggressive with at least 10 shots in every game. Porzingis is averaging over a fantasy point per minute and will easily pay off his prices at his 25 minute a game average.

Festus Ezeli (C - GS) FD: $3,500 DK: $3,100

With Andrew Bogut out with a concussion for at least one more game, Festus Ezeli should pick up another start once again. He will split minutes with Marreese Speights but still should see 25 plus minutes against the Pelicans. In the season opener against the Pelicans, Ezeli had 23 fantasy points in only 17 minutes of court time. He is a great rebounder and defender, who is averaging 5.5 rebounds and a block and half a game to start the season. At minimum price on FanDuel and close to minimum on DraftKings he is a great salary saver with huge upside.

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