NBA Winners from Downtown: 11-22-15

By: Zach Qualtieri, Updated November 22, 2015

NBA Sports Betting Quick Links

Winners From Downtown is bringing the top daily picks for your cash games, alongside some value plays, and Vegas notes. Be sure to check out our minutes tool, and Colossus lineup optimizer.

Projections show DraftKings prices and fantasy points.

Vegas Notes

- Tonight is shaping up to be a high scoring night with every team with a point total of at least 99 points. The Warriors have the highest team total on the board with 112.5.

- All games are scheduled to be close with only the Warriors/Nuggets game having a spread of more than 6 points. The Warriors are 11.5 point road favorites. Normally this is a game I would not target to heavily in cash games but on this short 5 game slate that will not be the case tonight.

- The game that I will be targeting the most is the Suns/Pelicans game. That game has the second highest point total of the night at 210.5 and is forecasted to be the closest game with the Pelicans only 1 point favorites.

- There are some injuries that bear watching with Kevin Durant being the big one. If he plays he affects the value of every player on the Thunder including Russell Westbrook.

Top Picks

Brandon Knight (PG), Suns
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
@Pelicans	35	0.96	19.6	27.0%	41.82	104.25	35.27

Salary: FD: $8,000 DK: $7,900

Point guard is loaded tonight. There are studs every where you look but Knight is my favorite of the group for several reason. One he is a lot cheaper than the other point guards on the slate due to his inconsistent play. Knight seems to alternate from great game to bad game. In his past 6 games, Knight has done a yo-yo effect. His past 6 games have been 19.5, 48.0, 12.25, 78.0, 32.75, 68.75 fantasy points. In this trend Knight is scheduled for a down swing but I do not see that happening tonight. This brings me to the second reason why I love Knight the most and that is his opponent. The Pelicans allow the most fantasy points per game to point guards. With the match up, price and point total of this game, I see no reason for Knight not to have a great game.

Eric Bledsoe (SG), Suns
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
@Pelicans	34	1.00	19.6	28.3%	37	104.25	34.00

Salary: FD: $8,400 DK: $8,400

Shooting guard is a waste land tonight and Bledsoe is far and away your top option. Bledose is playing great efficient basketball. He has scored 20 or more points in 7 straight games and has shot better than 50% from the field in 5 of those games. He is not just a scorer and packs on the stats in all categories. For the season he is averaging 4 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 2.1 steals. In a position filled with question marks Bledsoe is your safest play for cash games.

Danilo Gallinari (SF), Nuggets
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
Warriors	36	0.87	21.6	20.9%	37.3	101.0	31.32

Salary: FD: $7,000 DK: $6,500

If Kevin Durant is able to suit up tonight he is of course your top play but there are question marks surrounding if he will play and if he does will he be on a minute restriction. After Durant, I like Gallinari the best in a position that is not top heavy but filled with value. Gallinari offers you the most upside with his scoring ability and has been crashing the boards lately. He had his first double-double in almost two years last game and is averaging 7.5 rebounds over his past 4 games. He doesn't have the best match up in the world against Golden State but did drop 25 points on them earlier in the season.

Anthony Davis (PF), Pelicans
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
Suns	35	1.36	18.9	28.1%	40.15	105.25	47.60

Salary: FD: $10,800 DK: $10,700

Anthony Davis has been a frustrating player to own this season. In the begging of the year he was inconsistent, lately it has been the injury bug. Injuries have caused him to miss 3 of his past 6 games and only play 6 minutes in one of them. The times Davis has been on the court in that time frame though he has been the best player in the NBA. In the two games he played his full allotment of minutes, Davis has averaged 28 points, 14.5 rebounds and 3 blocked shots. He has not failed to score below 50 fantasy points in those 2 games as well. Hold your breath and cross your fingers that nothing happens to the Brow in this game.

Roy Hibbert (C), Lakers
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
Trail Blazers	28	0.95	20.4	14.3%	46.88	100.0	26.60

Salary: FD: $5,400 DK: $4,800

Center is a weak position tonight. Your only truly viable option is Brook Lopez but I can not see myself paying up for him against the Celtics. Boston is a tough defense and Lopez struggled against them last time out. I also would prefer to spend my salary at some of the other positions tonight. Enter Hibbert who is actually playing decent basketball. He has scored 25 or more fantasy points in 5 straight games and gets a favorable match up against Portland. Portland ranks 27th in allowing fantasy points to centers and will be without their top center Meyers Leonard once again. You are not going to want to watch Hibbert play but on this slate he offers you the best bang for your buck.

Value Plays

Ish Smith (PG - NO) FD: $5,900 DK: $6,000

With Tyreke Evans scheduled to come back shortly enjoy Smith while you can. He has played great for the Pelicans this season and is coming off three straight games with at least 30 fantasy points. He needs the minutes to produce but should continue to see them with Jrue Holiday on a minutes restriction. If Smith sees 30 plus minutes like he has the past 3 games you can pencil him in for 30 fantasy points as he has hit at least that amount in every game he has seen those amount of minutes.

Will Barton (SG - EN) FD: $5,300 DK: $5,600

Barton has become the jack of all trades for the Nuggets. He has done a little bit of everything over the past 10 days. In those 6 games, Barton is averaging 15.2 points, 5.7 rebound, 2.5 assists and 30.8 fantasy points. He should continue to see the minutes and produce similar numbers tonight and makes for a great play at a thin position. On DraftKings I would also look at Kobe Bryant who is only $300 more than Barton but carries more upside.

Jae Crowder (SF - BOS) FD: $5,400 DK: $5,600

Crowder has been a great value night in and night out this season. He has returned at least 4x value in all but 2 games. He is an elite defender who is averaging just shy of 3 steals a game. He had a huge 35 point fantasy night against the Nets last time out and should produce similar numbers against them tonight.

Thaddeus Young (PF - BKN) FD: $6,400 DK: $6,900

It is time to give Mr. Young some credit. He has been tearing it up over his past 6 games. In that time frame he has gone over 30 points 5 times, over 40 points 3 times and has 4 double-doubles. He has taken over as one of the top options for the Nets and had a double-double against Boston his last time out. I see no reason why Young will not get 30 plus fantasy points tonight and he makes a great mid-tier option on tonight's slate.

Comments