The NFL season is now almost a third of the way over and stats used by DFS experts are starting to become a little clearer. With a bigger sample size of games, the DvP numbers have started to become a little more consistent week over week. This makes it a little easier to find certain positions to target against specific teams which can lead to our success in putting together our lineups for this Week 6 slate. Below is the updated DvP chart through 5 weeks featuring teams playing on the main slate for DK this week.
Quarterbacks to Target
Russell Wilson (6,900) vs Atlanta Falcons- Sometimes everything seems to align for a player and this week it really looks like it has happened for Russell Wilson. 1) It is well known that Wilson has been playing a little banged up at the beginning of the year. The Seahawks will be coming off of their bye week and it could not have come at a better time for Wilson. 2) Wilson will be going against the Falcons who have given up the most fantasy points per game to QBs. 3) His pass catchers have also been a little banged up and with the bye week they should also be healthy and in prime shape to be at their best in this juicy matchup. Wilson will be a QB who may go a little overlooked this week in a great matchup to take advantage of.
Drew Brees (7,900) vs Carolina Panthers- Sometimes the obviously play could be the right one and that is shaping up to be the case for Drew Brees this week. He will be going against the Carolina Panthers defense who ranks bottom 10 against the QB in a game that looks like it will be a shootout. The other big note to look at is that Brees will be playing at home under the dome in New Orleans. His home/road splits are well documented and this is a prime place to use him this week. These are not the 2015 Panthers and Brees is someone to look at inserting into lineups this week.
Quarterbacks to Avoid
Matt Ryan (6,700) vs Seattle Seahawks- It would unfair of us to ignore the fact that Matt Ryan has been one of the best raw fantasy point producers at the QB position in 2016. However, this week there looks to be way too many things going against him. 1) Seattle has allowed the least amount of points to the QB position in the 2016 season. 2) He will be playing on the road in Seattle which is one of the toughest environments to play at in the NFL. 3) I repeat he is facing the top ranked defense against the QB on the road. Play him at your own risk.
Andrew Luck (7,100) vs Houston Texans- Andrew Luck and the Colts will be heading to Houston to take on the Texans in Week 6. The Texans boast the 4th best ranking against opposing QBs this year and is a secondary that I am not afraid to target but this seems like a spot I will tend to avoid. One of the biggest reasons may have to do less with Luck and more of his supporting cast. The Colts offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL and I expect the Texans to be able to make him uncomfortable in pocket. I also believe that for Luck to be playable, he will need a big game from T.Y. Hilton. Hilton performs better at home compared to on the road and I expect the Texans to focus their attention on him this week. After being embarrassed last week against the Vikings, the Texans should play with a little more fire in an important divisional game.
Running Backs to Target
Lamar Miller (6,600) vs Indianapolis Colts- Lamar Miller has been one of the more frustrating players this year in DFS. He has certainly gotten enough volume to produce big games, but he has not done so through the first five weeks of the season. I expect him to break this trend and have a big game against the 2nd worst defense against RBs. With the expectation that the game will be close/Texans will be leading, it would not surprise me to see Miller have a workload of at least 25 carries and turn that into 100 yards and multiple touchdowns.
LeSean McCoy (6,900) vs San Francisco 49ers- I usually tend to try and avoid certain storylines while researching games, but the McCoy/Chip Kelly is one that I actually think has some merit. McCoy has a strong opinion on Kelly as McCoy believed the Kelly was the reason he was traded from the Eagles to the Bills. McCoy looks to have a bone to pick this week and the football statistics seem to look like this has a high likelihood of occurring. The 49ers are a bottom 10 team at defending running backs and everyone saw what David Johnson was able to do against this defense last week. On top of that, the Bills really rely on the running game as a result of them not having the services of Sammy Watkins. McCoy seems to be in a prime spot to have a heavy workload against a bad rush defense with a little extra motivation this week.
Running Back to Avoid
Ezekiel Elliott (7,000) vs Green Bay Packers- There are times when even the best DFS players make a wrong call and last week was one of those moments for me. Elliott just did his thing again against a very good Bengals defense. I have decided this week to double down against the rookie and list him as a RB to avoid in Week 6. So far this season the Packers are a team that looks more vulnerable to give up fantasy points to the pass compared to the run. They have been the number 1 defense in points allowed to the running back position. It is a good place to note that their SOS (strength of schedule) has been pretty easy in relation to the position. They have faced four teams who rank in the bottom ten in the league in rush offense, but I am under the impression that the Packers will finish the season in the top 10 against the position and they should be able limit Elliott enough to where I won't feel bad about not having him in lineups this week.
Wide Receivers to Target
Cameron Meredith (4,100) vs Jacksonville Jaguars- With the injury to Kevin White, we have seen a new player become DFS relevant and his name is Cameron Meredith. This week the Bears will be going against the Jaguars who are a bottom 10 defense against Wide Receivers. A big factor that will play into Meredith's favor this week is how well the Jaguars have defended the middle of the field against the pass, mainly due to Jalen Ramsey. This could lead to less targets for the likes of Eddie Royal and Zach Miller. As a result, Meredith could be the beneficiary of some extra looks on the outside which could lead to a big game for the Bears receiver.
Kelvin Benjamin (8,100) vs New Orleans Saints- With the expectation that Cam Newton will be playing this week, Benjamin should be in a great spot this week against the Saints. With an expect game total of 54 points, the Panthers are expected to be the highest scoring team on the weekend. With the Saints allowing the second most fantasy points per game to WRs, Benjamin should be in line to help the Panthers reach their high expected total. His price continues to rise even with limited production over the past couple weeks which could lead him to be a little less owned than he should.
Wide Receivers to Avoid
Julio Jones (8,900) vs Seattle Seahawks- For all the reason I stated above with Matt Ryan, I will be avoiding Jones in DFS contests this week. The Seahawks are a tough matchup and it makes it even worse playing them at home in Seattle. There are plenty of other wide receivers with higher floors and upsides who should be inserted into lineups before Jones this week.
Terrelle Pryor (6,100) vs Tennessee Titans – It just seems that the Cleveland Browns can't catch a break. It is expected that Cody Kessler will be able to suit up this weekend, but it is more than likely he will not be 100%. As a result, I expect this will affect Pryor and his fantasy production in a negative way. Since his breakout performance in Week 3, he has seen single digit targets in back to back games. It also does not help that he will be facing a Titans defense that ranks 5th in points allowed to wide receivers. With his price rising, a bad matchup, and a decrease in targets, Pryor is a player I will leave out of lineups this week.
Tight End to Target
Delanie Walker (5,500) vs Cleveland Browns- Walker this week looks to have the perfect scenario for him to have a big fantasy output this week. He will be going against a Browns defense that ranks dead last in points allowed to TEs. The Titans pass offense is one that over the first couple weeks is becoming more and more clear. The preseason hype for Tajae Sharpe seems to have been unwarranted and Rishard Matthews/Andre Johnson are not players that Marcus Mariota can rely on when he drops back to pass. This all leads to Walker being the guy for the Titans in the passing game. It would not surprise me to see him getting double digit targets in the best matchup he will see all year.
Tight End to Avoid
Jordan Reed (6,100) vs Philadelphia Eagles- After five weeks, it seems to look more and more that the Philadelphia Eagles defense is for real. They have been the best team at defending the tight end this season which does not bode well for Jordan Reed this week. Reed is the third highest priced TE on the slate and his matchup makes it unlikely for him to be able to pay off and hit value. With similarly priced TEs like Olsen, Walker, Kelce, and Graham all in better matchups, it would be wise to look in a different direction from Reed in lineups for Week 6.
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