Brief Summary (5:30 PM):
PPD Threat: COL(25%), NYY(30%)
Delay Threats: NYY(60%), PHI(20%), CIN(10%), STL(10%), COL(50%), KC(15%)
Good Hitting Environments: COL, CHC, NYY, PHI, DET, CIN, KC, STL
Poor Hitting Environments: LAA, OAK, SEA
Follow along on Twitter @dfcafe for latest updates.
Forecast Analysis:
Current radar:
The National Weather Service's Surface Map for this evening:
4 games see the threat of some rain (not counting SEA as the retractable roof will be closed)
BAL@NYY
Current radar:
So the question does anything popup that may impact the game?
The short term model that I trust says there will be things that popup that may cause issues:
8 PM
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF A PPD; MODERATE THREAT OF SOME SORT OF DELAY(S) (please note that Baltimore comes back to NYC before the season ends so that may be a factor that leans to a PPD)
MIA@PHI
:
More optimistic story than NYC. LOW CHANCE OF A PPD; LOW TO MODERATE THREAT OF SOME SORT OF DELAY(S)
ATL@CIN
Current radar:
Thunderstorms are off to the southwest of the Queen City and are moving away. Will anything else develop to the northwest and move into the city? Probably not but I will keep a close eye on it. VERY LOW CHANCE OF A PPD; LOW THREAT OF SOME SORT OF DELAY(S)
CLE@KC
This game has popped up as a slight concern as the current radar shows below:
A few tsrorms should pass through over the next few hours but the worst of the weather should stay to their east. Just another game to keep an eye on. LOW CHANCE OF PPD; LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF SOME TYPE OF DELAY(S)
SD@STL
The next game that could see some rain will be found along the Mississippi River. The radar could look like this:
Timing is key here as these thunderstorms should be in the process of leaving the region. If they are slower to leave there could be some problems. LOW CHANCE OF A PPD; LOW TO MODERATE THREAT OF SOME SORT OF DELAY(S)
TB@COL
The last game with the threat for some rain will be found along the Front Range of the Rockies in Denver. The radar is predicted to look like this:
Rain will fall off an on all evening long it looks like. This game seems like it is going to be the biggest threat and will be the game I will have to watch the closest. Always when I forecast for Denver, I look to see if there is a surface feature causing the rain. In this case, as can be seen by the 1st image all the way at the top, there is (the warm front off to their northeast). Thus, this game is a legitimate concern, one that will bring all of us headaches I fear. LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF A PPD; MODERATE RISK OF SOME SORT OF DELAY(S)
