NBA GPP Green Light 11-17-17

Friday is here, and so is an 11-game slate on FanDuel and DraftKings. We don't have a ton of injury news to worry about tonight, as Ricky Rubio is already ruled out, and the Clippers injury situation is just as it has been for the last few weeks. The Lakers, Cavs, Raptors, Nuggets, and Suns are the only teams projected to score over 110 points tonight. The Thunder, Spurs, Kings, and Bulls are expected to score below 100. Narrowing down teams is often a good way to attack these bigger slates, which helps you select a core.

DK Salary: $6,500 / FD Salary: $6,400

Utah gets a tremendous matchup against the Nets tonight, who play up in pace, and allow a ton of fantasy production. Utah is missing Ricky Rubio, Rudy Gobert, Joe Johnson, and possibly Thabo Sefolosha. This is going to open the door for plenty of value and mid-range. Both Donovan Mitchell and Rodney Hood see a 30%+ usage rate with these names off the court this season, and Mitchell's usage has already been a consistent target. Joe Ingles and Derrick Favors will be attractive value options tonight, and this is quickly turning into a why the Jazz are great points per dollar plays tonight article.

Brooklyn ranks 25th in defensive efficiency against backcourt players, and are allowing opponents to shoot 46% from the field, which ranks 21st in the NBA. The Jazz have not been a notable offensive team, but Brooklyn allowing 114 points per game is a matchup that can lead them in the right direction. Mitchell dropped 35 fantasy points in 25 minutes last time out against Brooklyn, and has played 36, 35, and , 36 minutes in the three games around that one. Our projections seem fairly modest on him, but I am looking for a 35+ fantasy point game out of him this evening.

DK Salary: $7,600 / FD Salary: $7,400

Kevin Love's minutes are a little too tough to trust in cash games for me, especially with plenty of other centers in play. He has played 27, 23, 36, and 29 minutes over the last four games. While outside of the New York game he has been a productive FPPM player, it simply is not enough at his price tag. I usually rag on Love a bit given he is not a big producer of defensive stats, which hurts him a bit at this position. This is a great matchup to take a gamble on Love, especially when we look at the possible scoring outcome of this game in general. This game has the second highest over/under on the slate, and the Cavs are only six point favorites.

The Clippers defense has struggled of late, and we might be able to chalk that up to some of their missing players, but opposing centers is an area I want to target. They rank 22nd in defensive efficiency, and are allowing as many fantasy points to centers as the Kings/Nets over the last five games. We have seen a few games where Love can drop 30 and 15 on a team, but he will need to do that to eclipse 45+ fantasy points due to the lack of blocks/steals.

DK Salary: $6,000 / FD Salary: $6,900

This is one of my favorite points-per-dollar plays on the board tonight. Dennis Smith Jr. has been thriving in some tough defensive matchups, averaging over 30 fantasy points in the last four games. He has faced San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Cleveland, and Washington in that span. Cleveland is the only team you expect huge production against. Minnesota's defense has looked a little better, but not by much.

They are allowing opponents to shoot 49% from the field, and allowing 108 points per game. They rank 22nd in defensive efficiency against point guards, and Jeff Teague has been a liability. Smith is still at a really nice price tag, and I don't mean $6,900. His price should be going up soon, so continue to get the bargain play. Minutes have been stabler of late, playing over 30 in each of the last four games. His usage rivals some of the bigger point guard names this season.

DK Salary: $9,000 / FD Salary: $9,000

A lot of people will be flocking to Blake Griffin in a good matchup against Cleveland, or spending all the way up for the AD/Boogie field. There are also plenty of value plays at this position, and because Kristaps Porzingis doesn't get a glaring good matchup, he should be low-owned. His floor is a bit lower in this matchup against the field, but for someone with a top three usage rate in the league, we still can look at a 50+ fantasy point ceiling if he can get hot. He has had a couple of down games of late, and I mean down by his standards scoring 22 and 20 points with 7-8 rebounds.

Toronto ranks 25th in defensive efficiency against power forwards this season, and Serge Ibaka is a question mark for tonight's game. They have allowed power forwards to shoot 50% from the field this season and they do rank 19th in rebounding. Two areas Porzingis can thrive in.

DK Salary: $4,100 / FD Salary: $3,700

I mean this might be an obvious one, but if Greg Monroe is going to play 25 minutes against the Lakers then I am all aboard this one even at higher ownership. Tyson Chandler is already ruled out, and Phoenix is essentially showcasing Monroe for a trade. He had a 20% usage rate last night and a 149 offensive rating. We know he is a tremendous FPPM player, but he played in Milwaukee, which is where minutes to go die for bigs.

We do need to keep an eye on Monroe's health, as he just came back from a calf injury. If there is any talk of him being limited in this back-to-back, then we can take a harder look at Alex Len, who played 21 minutes last night managing 25 fantasy points. Monroe could basically be a free square. You can make for of a case for fading him on FanDuel if he only gets 25 fantasy points and we have guys going into the 45+ range, but DraftKings he is a very tough fade.