NBA GPP Green Light 12-4-17

Welcome back from the weekend boys and girls! I hope everyone is ready for a big night of basketball, as we have 11-games on tap tonight! We have already received a bunch of injury news, with Anthony Davis, Kristaps Porzingis, and Tim Hardaway Jr. sitting tonight out, and we have to keep an eye on the Warriors as Steve Kerr is expected to rest some more players tonight. There are currently three games projected at 218 or above with the Suns at Sixers projected to be the highest scoring game of the night. There aren't any games off my radar tonight, making this an excellent slate to break down.

DK Salary: $9,800 / FD Salary: $10,400

As I mentioned above, the Sixers and Suns game is projected to be the highest scoring game of the night, and getting exposure to Embiid makes a ton of sense here. This will be a fast-paced game against a Suns defense that is surrendering 115.8 points per game, while giving up 49.2 points in the paint to opponents this season. Opponents are shooting 63.2 percent at the rim against them and they have allowed opponents to pull down 46.4 rebounds per game. In addition to their lack of rim protection, they are also allowing opponents to shoot 40 percent on mid-range attempts this season, where Embiid is attempting 44 percent of his shots. The Suns are allowing opponents to rack up .92 points per possession on post ups this season, and Embiid is posting up on 41.3 percent of his possessions this season. He ranks in the 75th percentile among players in post up scoring, averaging .96 points per possession, and should be able to dominate the trio of Chandler, Len, and Monroe down low.

Embiid is coming off a down game against the Pistons, but he has notched 44 or more fantasy points in six of the last 10 games, with three of those games going over 50 fantasy points. His salary, plus a dearth of options at center tonight, should keep his ownership down which makes him an amazing GPP target. Because this game projects to be so much fantasy goodness, Ben Simmons, Robert Covington, Dario Saric, and J.J. Redick are all in play as well.

DK Salary: $7,700 / FD Salary: $7,400

If you haven't been picking on Orlando with big men this season, well, you have been doing DFS wrong. Tonight, we not only get to take advantage of a great matchup for Dwight, but it is also a #NarrativeStreet game as he takes on one of his former teams. This is projected to be one of the higher scoring games tonight, and is a pace up game for the Hornets, making this an even more intriguing spot to target Howard.

Dwight is in the midst of a resurgence in Charlotte, averaging 12.5 rebounds and 15.3 points per game, and has been dominate as of late, averaging 35.7 DraftKings points per game over the last five. He has eclipsed 40 fantasy points in three of those five, and has posted at least 40 fantasy points in 8 of his 21 games this season. His matchup against the Magic couldn't be more ideal for his play style, as they are giving up a whopping 49.7 points in the paint and 46.4 rebounds per game to opponents and have surrendered six double-doubles to opposing centers this season. Dwight racked up 40 DraftKings points against Orlando in their last matchup, and was one rebound shy of a double-double, and is in line for another great night tonight. I absolutely love the spot for Kemba Walker tonight as well, but he is coming off an injury and his status will need to be monitored throughout the day.

DK Salary: $6,700 / FD Salary: $7,300

Because the Suns and Sixers matchup is such an great game to attack tonight, I am going to give you a play from the Phoenix side of this game to target as well. The Sixers rank 26th in the NBA in fantasy points allowed to small forwards on the season, giving up 39.1 per game, which has T.J. Warren firmly on my radar. A quick look at Warren's game logs and it looks like he has been struggling recently, but that has hardly been the case as he has managed to produce solid outings against tough defense and has seen his minutes take a hit in some blowout losses.

Tonight shouldn't be a blowout and we should see Warren play his full allotment of minutes, meaning he should be able to produce in a big way for us. He has attempted 20 or more shots in five of the last 10 games, with multiple games where he has attempted at least 14, and will face a Sixers squad that is one of the worst teams in the NBA protecting the rim. Warren ranks in the 92nd percentile among all wings in shot attempts at the rim, where he is sinking 64 percent of his attempts, and has been one of the better wings at rebounding the ball as well. The Sixers struggle to defend in isolation and the pick-and-roll, two areas where Warren is excellent, and I expect him to make them pay tonight. Obviously, Devin Booker is an excellent option as well, and Tyson Chandler could be a sneaky way to get even more exposure to this game.

DK Salary: $6,200 / FD Salary: $6,600

With Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr. already ruled out for this game, we don't have to worry about monitoring news and we can focus on who benefits with those two off the floor. A quick look at the production of the remaining Knicks players shows that Kanter is a major beneficiary, as he sees a 6.2 percent boost in usage, up to 27.6 percent, and is averaging 1.15 fantasy points per minute. Kanter went off against the Magic yesterday, a game in which Porzingis and THJ sat out, to the tune of 43 DraftKings points and has now notched at least 40 Draftkings points in three of his last four games.

The Pacers are giving up 43.4 rebounds per game to opponents, but more importantly, they are giving up 49.2 points in the paint and rank 28th in the NBA in rim protection, allowing opponents to shoot 66.6% percent at the rim. Kanter attempts almost 70 percent of his shots at the rim and is sixth in the NBA in 2nd chance points this season. He notched 9 points and 18 rebounds against the Pacers last time out, a game in which both Porzingis and THJ played, and should have no issues matching those numbers tonight. The absence of KP and THJ will open up more minutes for Michael Beasley, who is an interesting value option tonight.

DK Salary: $5,700 / FD Salary: $5,900

I never seem to get Darren Collison right, but I am hoping to break that tonight because there is no way I am fading him at his price across the industry as he faces off against the Knicks. Collison torched them for 40.8 DraftKings points in their last meeting, while playing 38 minutes, and there are several aspects of this matchup to like tonight.

First off, the Knicks rank 23rd in the NBA in fantasy points allowed to point guards, surrendering 48.81 fantasy points per game, and they have allowed six 34-plus point outings to point guards in their first 2 games. The Knicks struggle to defend the ball handler in the pick-and-roll, surrendering the 8th most points per possession, .84, to them and Collison ranks in the 80th percentile among all players in the NBA in efficiency as the ball handler. They are also getting shredded by spot up shooters, with Collison attempting 16.7 percent of his shots as spot ups, and have allowed opponents to shoot 44.05 percent on corner threes this season. Collison doesn't attempt a ton of three-pointers, averaging only 3.08 per game, but when he does he likes to shoot them from the corner, which just adds to his value tonight. Everything lines up for Collison to absolutely smash value at his price tonight.