NBA GPP Green Light 12-5-17

After an action-packed 11-game slate last night, we have only three games tonight, with none of them being terribly intriguing. It is pretty much a guarantee that the Suns get blown out, coming into Toronto on a back-to-back, and we have the Wizards and Jazz also on back-to-backs with travel. The Raptors are the only team with a team total over 115, but the spread is 13.5 in that contest. The Trail Blazers and Suns have team totals around 105, and we don't have a total on the Utah at OKC contest. Keep an eye on the news tonight, as we could get Tyson Chandler resting, and there is a chance that Rudy Gobert sits out tonight as well.

DK Salary: $9,400 / FD Salary: $9,100

I know I am not breaking any news with this one, but Damian Lillard is a fantastic play tonight as the Trail Blazers take on the Wizards. Given the other options on the slate, however, Dame could end up being the lower owned of the three top point guards, making him my top GPP target at the point guard position. A cursory glance at the game will tell you that the Wizards are a tough matchup for opposing point guards, but that likely isn't the case and the data is likely misleading us as their past few opponents haven't been teams with great point guards and they are without John Wall. Tim Frazier, who is starting in place of Wall, has a -.96 DRPM on the season, ranking 31st out of 91 point guards, and they have surrendered 41 real points to point guards over the last four games without Wall.

Lillard comes into tonight on the heels of a 50.75 fantasy points performance, his third in the last 10 games, and has played at least 40 minutes in three of the last four games. He leads the team in usage at 30.72 percent, and ranks in the top 20th percentile in the NBA in isolation, averaging 1.1 points per possession in isolation, and gets a Wizards team that is allowing .95 points per possession in isolation. Lillard notched 46 DraftKings points in 40 minutes the last time these teams squared off and has averaged 44 DraftKings points per game against the Wizards over the last two seasons.

DK Salary: $8,400 / FD Salary: $8,600

While this isn't a terribly appealing matchup for George, a game with a low total against a tough defense, but he is my favorite player from the Thunder to target tonight. George is playing a boatload of minutes for the Thunder, notching at least 40 in three of the last four games, and has done a fantastic job of boosting his floor by adding blocks, steals, and rebounds to his game. He has attempted at least 17 shots in seven of the last 10 games and at least six three-pointers in 8 of the last ten games.

While the Jazz are allowing a meager 38 fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards, they are surrendering 48.3 real points, 21 rebounds, and 3.8 steals per game to the forward position. They are, however, doing a terrible job of defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot almost 38 percent from beyond-the-arc this season. They are also allowing 1.09 points per possession to spot up shooter, with an eFG percentage of 57.3 percent. George is the Thunder's best three-point shooter, connecting on 40.2 percent of his attempts, and is one of the best spot-up shooters in the NBA this season, averaging 1.27 points per spot-up possession.

DK Salary: $5,000 / FD Salary: $5,200

The Toronto Raptors are in an excellent spot tonight, facing off against a Suns squad that is surrendering over 115 points per game to opponents, and there are a ton of excellent fantasy options to consider. With there being a considerable amount of blowout risk in this contest, I am going to work on getting exposure the cheapest ways that I can in GPPs. While Ibaka has not been impressive as of late, averaging 23.8 DraftKings points per game in 25.2 minutes over the last four games, but he has been over 20 fantasy points in all but one of his last 10 games, and has flashed 40 points upside in the right matchups. He is still pulling down a decent amount of rebounds, with 7 or more in five of his last 10 games, which is promising considering the Suns are giving up over 46 rebounds per game to opponents.

The Suns are surrendering 49.4 points in the paint per game to opponents on the season, and have been one of the worst teams in the NBD defending post-ups, where Ibaka ranks in in the 92nd percentile this season. The Suns rank 30th in the NBA in fantasy points allowed to power forwards, giving up 48.3 per game, and if Ibaka can notch 30-plus tonight, we will be some happy campers.

DK Salary: $3,400 / FD Salary: $4,100

We probably won't need any value plays tonight, depending on roster construction, but if we do, VanVleet is my guy. VanVleet has played a decent amount of minutes with Delon Wright out, and has seen at least 24 minutes in four of the last 10 games. He is averaging .92 fantasy points per minutes on the season and 1.04 fantasy points per minute with Delon Wright off the floor. The Suns struggle to defend every aspect of the game, however, they really struggle to defend in isolation and on spot ups, where VanVleet has been solid this season. They are giving up over 115 points per game this season, and over 52 per game to opposing point guards, and VanVleet should get plenty of chances to pay off his salary tonight. If this game gets out of hand early, we will get plenty of garbage time with VanVleet and he can really exceed in that scenario.