NBA GPP Green Light 12-6-17

Happy hump day boys and girls! After an atrocious three-game slate last night, we have 10-games to focus on tonight, and it looks to be a juicy slate. We have four games projected over 215 points tonight, and only two under 200, and only one game with a double-digit spread. The Pelicans, Cavs, Warriors, and Magic all have team totals over 110, with the Pacers, Hornets, Nuggets, and Timberwolves just below 110. Stephen Curry has already been ruled out for Golden State, which opens things up for this slate, and we only have a couple of other small injury related situations to keep an eye on.

DK Salary: $9,100 / FD Salary: $9,500

While there is a pretty good chance that Andre Drummond is a chalk play tonight, I just don't care, as he has so much upside in this spot. Drummond, who has averaged 46 DraftKings points per game against Milwaukee in two games this season, is coming into tonight's game averaging 49 DraftKings points over the last six contests. One of those games was a meager 35.25 points outing against the Suns, in which he only played 28 minutes, and he has eclipsed the 50 points mark in three of the last 10 games. Drummond has added assists to his arsenal, notching at least five helpers in five of the last 10 games as well, which just further boosts his floor and his upside.

The Bucks have been decimated by dominating big men this season and rank near the bottom of the NBA in efficiency against centers. They have given up 52.6 fantasy points per game to the position, 23rd in the NBA, and have surrendered 23.5 points and 16.7 rebounds per game to the position in their 22 games. They are allowing the second-highest percentage of shots at the rim, 38.6 percent, and are allowing opponents to shoot 60.5 percent there. Drummond is attempting a massive 74 percent of his shots at the rim this season, connecting on 65 percent of them, and is third in the NBA in paint touches per game. Drummond is in an absolute dream spot tonight, and will be a staple in all my GPP lineups. If looking to attack the rest of the Bucks, Avery Bradley has torched the Bucks this season as well.

DK Salary: $7,400 / FD Salary: $6,900

While Kevin Durant is going to steal the spotlight, and rightfully so, it is Klay Thompson that I am most interested in as the Warriors are without Steph Curry tonight. While Thompson doesn't see the huge 33.2 percent usage rate Durant does with Curry off the floor, he does still see a 4.2 percent boost and posts a 29.2 percent usage rate. With Steph's 17.5 field-goal attempts vacated by his absence, it is Klay that I expect to be one of the biggest beneficiaries in this matchup.

With the usage part out of the way, let's take a quick look at his matchup against the Hornets. Charlotte ranks 20th in DvP against shooting guards, allowing 40.7 fantasy points per game to them, and have surrendered an average of 26.8 points per game to shooting guards over the past 10 games, and rank in the bottom-10 of efficiency against the position on the season. The Hornets are surrendering 1.12 points per possession in transition, and with Klay ranking in the top-10 percent of all players in the NBA in transition efficiency, I think he can crush them if Golden State can force the Hornets to push the pace tonight.

DK Salary: $6,100 / FD Salary: $6,400

Tonight's contest between the Hawks and Magic will feature two of the worst defenses in the NBA, with both teams ranking in the bottom-five of the NBA in defense, and there will be plenty of fantasy goodness to attack. On the Orlando side of this game, Evan Fournier stands out to me as an excellent option to take a shot on in GPPs. Fournier has been rather inconsistent recently, scoring over 30 fantasy points only twice over his last 10 games, while also scoring under 20 fantasy points in three of those last 10 games. That, however, doesn't scare me off him tonight as there are several reasons why I think he can succeed in this matchup.

The first, and most obvious of those reasons, is that the Hawks rank near the bottom of the NBA in defensive efficiency against opposing wings, allowing over 44 fantasy points per game to both the shooting guard and small forward positions. The Hawks have surrendered the most real points, 23.6, per game to opposing small forwards this season, while allowing them to shoot an insanely-high 47.7 percent from the floor. There are three specific areas where the Atlanta Hawks really struggle on defense this season, in isolation, against the pick-and-roll ball handler, and on spot-ups, which happen to be three areas where Fournier is extremely effective. He leads the Magic on spot ups, averaging 1.35 points per spot-up possession, which ranks in the top-five percent of all players in the NBA and also leads the team in isolation efficiency this season. Everything lines up for Fournier to smash tonight against the Hawks and is probably too cheap for the upside he has in this spot.

DK Salary: $5,800 / FD Salary: $6,600

After watching the Pacers dismantle the Knicks a few nights ago, I am wary of attacking them with anyone from bad teams, but I think the upside Markkanen has in this matchup is a little good to pass up tonight. Markkanen has been slumping as of late, averaging a meager 28 DraftKings points over the last six games, but the minutes have been solid and he has at least managed to average 7.2 rebounds over that span. His production has taken a dip due to horrible shooting, which has been caused by rushing his shots and taking contested looks, so there is hope that he can right the ship soon. He has at attempted at least 13 shots in four of his last five games, which is promising, and even attempted 11 three-pointers against the Suns just a few games ago.

The Pacers, who rank 28th in the NBA in fantasy points allowed to power forwards, struggled to contain the rookie big man last time they squared off, allowing him to score 12 points with 10 rebounds in 28 minutes, and have given up some pretty big games to shooting bigs this season. Not only do they rank 28th in fantasy points allowed to power forwards, as I mentioned above, but they also rank 24th in the NBA in defensive efficiency to the position and have given up an average of 24.5 points and 10.7 rebounds on the season. Opposing power forwards are shooting 49 percent from the floor, and 38.7 percent from beyond-the-arc, against them. Because of the blowout risk I mentioned above, I would be hesitant to get too much exposure to anyone else from this team, but frontcourt teammate Bobby Portis is also rather interesting in this spot.

DK Salary: $4,800 / FD Salary: $4,900

While I understand that Bogdanovic is the least sexy GPP of all time, I think this is a spot to jump on board as the Pacers take on the lowly Bulls tonight. Bogdanovic has been playing a heavy amount of minutes for the Pacers, averaging 32.6 over the last five games, but that number is down because of two recent blowouts. Bojangles has double-digit field goal attempts in 9 of the last 10 games, as well. He has had three down games, against the Rockets, Raptors, and Celtics, but has eclipsed 20 fantasy points in 7 of the last 10 games, while scoring at least 28 in three of those 7 contests. The last time these two teams faced off, Bogdanovic went off and notched 34.3 DraftKings points on 8-of-12 shooting. He went 6-of-9 from beyond-the-arc on his way to 22 points and 7 rebounds.

The Bulls are giving up over 107 points per game to opponents while allowing the 6th most fantasy points per game to small forwards. The Bulls have allowed opponents to shoot 38.3 percent from beyond-the-arc this season, including 39 percent on corner threes, and Bogdanovic happens to be the Pacers most lethal shooter from three, connecting on 44.3 percent of his attempts this season. With Victor Oladipo garnering all the attention as of late, Bojangles should go way overlooked and has potential to smash value tonight.