NBA GPP Green Light 2-27-18

It is a typical short-slate Tuesday around the NBA, as we have just six games, but there are plenty of great ways to attack this slate, with Charlotte, Cleveland, and Portland taking on some bottom-dwelling teams, and a great matchup between the Wizards and Bucks to look forward to. The Nets, Bulls, and Kings are three teams on back-to-backs, and we have two games with projected totals over 220 points, with the Clippers at Nuggets approaching 233 points. Three more of the games are projected over 210 points, and the Sixers at Heat is the lowest projected total of the night at 206. Cleveland, Charlotte, Portland, Denver, and LA all have team totals over 100 points tonight.

As teams enter the last leg of the season, we will see those at the bottom of the standings start to sit out stars and veterans to give young guys more minutes and teams at the top of the standings will start to clamp down on defense while also strategically resting players against bad opponents. Monitoring the news is incredibly important this time of year, and we have already seen teams like the Bulls start to change their lineups around to account for their tanking. The Kings are back to resting veterans, although we won't know ahead of time which veterans that will be, and we have three of the bottom ten teams in the tank race taking the court tonight.

DK Salary: $9,700 / FD Salary: $10,000

For those that haven't been paying attention, Damian Lillard has been playing at an out of this world level of late. He has recorded at least 40 points in three of the last five games, and 39 against the Jazz, including dropping a massive 50 points against this Kings team just before the All-Star break. He has been scorching hot from the floor this month, connecting on 47.2 percent of field goal attempts, and he has attempted 25 or more field goals in three of the last five games. He has notched at least 60 fantasy points in three of those previous five games, as well. Since January 14th, the night Portland suffered a devastating 17-point loss to the Timberwolves, Lillard is averaging 29.5 points and 6.5 assists per game, while shooting 49.1 percent from the floor and 40.3 percent from beyond-the arc. He is averaging 32.2 points per game in his last five games against the Kings and he has averaged 22.9 points on 43.2 percent shooting in his 19 career games against the Kings. His matchup against the Kings is outstanding, as they continue to struggle against point guards, and they are allowing opponents to connect on a whopping 38.3 percent of three-point attempts and 47.5 percent of overall attempts. They rank 25th in defensive efficiency to point guards over the last ten games, allowing 25.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 11 assists to the position over that span. Lillard will probably be a popular option tonight, which is fine, as I don't want to fade his upside here.

DK Salary: $8,600 / FD Salary: $9,000

I will continue to attack the Bulls each and every chance I get, and that starts with Kemba Walker. I absolutely love all of the Hornets tonight, and I will get to another one of my favorites down below, and I will probably end up with at least three in my lineups. Walker is coming off a "down" game against the Pistons, he notched 28.25 fantasy points in 28 minutes, but he had posted at least 40 fantasy points in three of his previous four games before that game. Much like the aforementioned Lillard, Walker has enjoyed an outstanding month of February, as he has connected on 44.3 percent of his field goal attempts and a staggering 45.8 percent of attempts from beyond-the-arc. He has shot at least 50 percent from the floor in five-straight games, as well, and has done so on a healthy amount of attempts. In two games against the Bulls this season, Walker has averaged 47.9 fantasy points, and he has done so while averaging 40.1 minutes. Those performances came before the Bulls elected to tank, although their defense was already terrible, but their lack of defensive effort now will definitely help. They rank 29th in fantasy points allowed to point guards on the season, allowing 48.97, and 24th in defensive efficiency over the last ten games. Over that span, opposing point guards are connecting on 37.2 percent of their three-point attempts, so Walker should be able to get hot from three tonight.

This is an outstanding spot for Nic Batum, as well, and he almost made it in here over Walker, but I just couldn't pull the trigger on that decision.

DK Salary: $5,200 / FD Salary: $5,800

Since being acquired by the Cavaliers at the trade deadline, Nance has made a big impact in Cleveland. His box scores may not reflect that at times, as he has posted three poor outings in his five games, but he has been a beast when it comes to racking up peripherals. Against both OKC and Memphis he was all over the glass, with eight and nine boards, and he has notched multiple blocks and steals in all but two of those five games. His steal percentage has climbed from 2.8 percent, where he led all big men, to 3.3 percent and his 3.7 percent block rate is just .2 percentage points behind Rudy Gobert, who we all know is one of the elite blockers in the NBA. He has struggled in his five games with field goal attempts, notching double-digit attempts in just two outings, but he has been incredibly efficient on his attempts with a 54.8 percent field goal percentage. He has eclipsed 30 fantasy points in both of the outings where he notched double-digit field goal attempts, with 33.25 and 39 points, and he gets an outstanding matchup tonight against the Nets. At this point, we already know that targeting the Nets with big men is pretty much a lock for value unless you are Cristiano Felicio (sorry about that), and tonight Nance should have no issues paying off his salary. The Nets are giving up the second-most fantasy points per game (48.78) to power forwards and a league-high 57.32 fantasy points per game to centers. Opponents are pulling down 46.3 rebounds per game against them, so Nance has plenty of rebounding upside, and they are allowing opposing front courts to average 68.1 points per game against them over the last ten games. All of that being said, Nance should be a core option in all formats tonight, as he has 35+ fantasy point upside here.

DK Salary: $4,900 / FD Salary: $4,700

Anyone that is a regular viewer to the NBA Slate Breakdown should already know that I abandoned Gortat Island a long time ago but I am taking my dinghy out into the murky waters to stick my toes in the fine sand there tonight. Gortat is coming off a fantastic outing against the Sixers on Sunday, where he posted 13 points with 10 rebounds, and he is in a great matchup against the Bucks. He has averaged 27.8 fantasy points in 31.3 minutes against them in three games this season, and they are allowing the second-most fantasy points (54.63) per game to centers this season. They have improved on the glass since Joe Prunty took over but they are still giving up 42.1 rebounds and 45.4 points in the paint per game. They also struggle at times against post-ups, which Gortat is doing on 16 percent of his possessions this season. The value center options are thin tonight, making Gortat one of the best options for GPPs.

DK Salary: $3,900 / FD Salary: $4,100

The last time I wrote up Marvin Williams in the GPP article it didn't quite work out but I am going back to the well tonight as the Hornets take on the Bulls. I will continue to stack against the Bulls terrible defense as they tank, and Williams is a great way to get cheap exposure. He hasn't been good of late, which has caused his price to drop, but he is in a breakout spot tonight. Williams is an excellent spot-up shooter and is doing so on almost 40 percent of his possessions this season and he is also excellent in transition where 16.3 percent of his possessions take place. The Bulls are the second- worst team in the NBA against spot-up shooters, giving up a staggering 25.5 points per game, and they are also the worst team in the NBA defending in transition where they are giving up 17.4 points per game and 56.5 percent shooting. I mentioned above that Batum, in addition to Walker, was a great play, as is Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Jeremy Lamb. You can't go wrong with any of the Hornets tonight.

Since Marvin Williams may be just a little too risky for you guys, you can consider Frank Kaminsky, as well. He comes in at just a few hundred more and is on fire from beyond-the-arc of late. He has connected on 9-of-14 three point attempts over his last two games and is averaging 18 points per game over that span.