NBA GPP Green Light 2-28-18

Happy Hump Day everyone! After just six games last night, we have nine wonderful games around the association tonight. We have three games with projected totals above 220 points, with the Warriors at Wizards game coming in at a massive 229 total, the Rockets at Clippers comes in at 227.5, the Pelicans at Spurs comes in just below 220 at 219.5, and the rest of the games come in between 200 and 215 points. The Raptors, Warriors, Houston, LA, ans San Antonio all have projected team totals over 110 points. Five of the bottom-10 teams in the NBA are in action tonight, with Phoenix, Atlanta, Orlando, Memphis, and Dallas taking the court, and LA, Washington, Charlotte, and Milwaukee are on the second-half of a back-to-back.

As teams enter the last leg of the season, we will see those at the bottom of the standings start to sit out stars and veterans to give young guys more minutes and teams at the top of the standings will start to clamp down on defense while also strategically resting players against bad opponents. Monitoring the news is incredibly important this time of year, and we have already seen teams like the Bulls start to change their lineups around to account for their tanking.

DK Salary: $9,700 / FD Salary: $9,800

Sometimes when it comes to GPP plays, it is less about the matchups, underlying statistics, and all that jazz, and more about a player's pricing. While the matchup, which I will get to shortly, is great for Durant, and we obviously know he is a great player, him being a tournament target for me tonight boils down mostly to him being too cheap. He has been a model of consistency most of the season, and of late he has posted 40-plus fantasy points in seven of his last ten games, and we already know that he has as much upside as just about anyone in the NBA. He has shown that upside against Washington already this season, with a 31-point, 11 rebound performance, and he recently dropped 50 points on 17-of-27 shooting against the Portland Trail Blazers. Durant is coming off a solid outing against the Knicks, where he posted 43.25 fantasy points in just 28 minutes, and he has double-digit field goal attempts in eight of his last ten games. He boosts his upside by stuffing the stat sheet on a nightly basis, as well, and he has notched multiple blocks and steals in nine-straight games. The Wizards are a team that I always enjoy targeting with wings, especially small forwards, as they are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position. They struggle against isolation, where Durant is operating on almost 15 percent of his possessions, and in transition defense, as well. There is the added benefit of this being a hometown game for Durant, which helps out those searching for a #NarrativeStreet play, and the upside he has at his price is just too high to ignore in this spot.

DK Salary: $8,100 / FD Salary: $8,700

With Anthony Davis taking the court opposite LaMarcus Aldridge tonight, I am expecting ownership to gravitate there, and Aldridge to come in as an overlooked PF/C option on the slate. I may be off base with my ownership expectation on Aldridge, although it doesn't really matter to me, this is definitely a spot that I don't want to fade him. Aldridge, as we all know by now, has had to shoulder most of the offensive load for San Antonio with Leonard out most of the season but tonight he gets the added benefit of Pau Gasol possibly being out. Gasol is currently listed as doubtful, so keep an eye on the news, but I am going all in on Aldridge regardless. Aldridge has been outstanding of late, with at least 50 fantasy points in three of his last five games, and he has scored at least 20 points in seven of his last ten games. He has at least 14 field goal attempts in eight consecutive outings, and nine of his last ten, as well. With Gasol off the floor this season, along with Leonard, Aldridge is posting a massive 31.6 percent usage rate and is averaging 1.25 fantasy points per minute. While this looks like a tough matchup for Aldridge on paper, a deeper dive into the numbers shows that this is an outstanding spot for him. Over the last ten games, the Pelicans have been abysmal down low, mostly because Cousins has been out, and they rank 14th in defensive efficiency to centers (24th to power forwards). They are giving up the eighth-most fantasy points (56.58) per game to centers over that span, as well. I am emphasizing the center statistics for the Pelicans here because I expect Aldridge to slide down to the five with Gasol possibly sitting. Over those ten games, they are giving up a league-high 50.9 rebounds per game to opponents, 15 second-chance points, the third-most in the NBA, and a league-high 53 points in the paint. Aldridge leads the Spurs with 5.1 second-chance points and 13.8 points in the paint per game, and he can also take advantage of the Pelicans' weakness against post-up players. In addition to Aldridge tonight, we can take advantage of Davis Bertans and Rudy Gay as cheap value options.

DK Salary: $7,600 / FD Salary: $7,800

Tonight's matchup between Toronto and Orlando will likely go overlooked, especially the Orlando side, which is why I think there is a significant edge in getting some exposure here. That starts with Nikola Vucevic and I will get to the Raptors side of the game with my next pick. Vucevic has been back from a two-month absence for just three games but he has made an immediate impact for the Magic since returning. He has posted at least 30 fantasy points in each of those games, with double-digit field goal attempts in all three, despite playing slightly limited minutes. He has multiple blocks and steals in those games, with two blocks and steals in two of those, and has connected on 54.1 percent of his field goal attempts. He leads the team in second-chance points this season, with 2.1 per game, and also leads the team with 8.5 points in the paint per game. Without Elfrid Payton on the floor this season, Vucevic is posting a 25.4 percent usage rate, while averaging 1.24 fantasy points per minute, and he could be in line for a massive usage and production boost if Aaron Gordon is unable to play tonight. Without Gordon and Payton on the floor this season, Vucevic is averaging a 29.2 percent usage rate and 1.6 fantasy points per minute. Those numbers make Vucevic almost unfadeable tonight if Gordon is unable to play. The matchup against Toronto isn't as bad as most might think, as they rank 16th in fantasy points allowed to centers, but they also surrender 13.2 second-chance points and 45.3 points in the paint per game. All-in-all, I think that Vucevic will go extremely overlook and is an excellent tournament option tonight.

DK Salary: $7,500 / FD Salary: $8,200

As I mentioned above, I think there is a chance that the Raptors and Magic game goes overlooked from a fantasy perspective tonight, which makes this a great spot to attack in tournaments. Lowry is much more interesting on DraftKings, where he comes in at only $7,500, but he still makes a solid option on FanDuel. It has been really tough to pinpoint the right game to use Lowry this season, as it has been a roller coaster in terms of production, and that is evidenced just by looking at his game logs. He is coming off a solid performance against the Pistons, where he posted 35.5 fantasy points in 25 minutes, and he has eclipsed 44 fantasy points in four of his last ten games. He has flashed plenty of rebounding of upside at times, in addition to the assists and steals he normally racks up, which definitely boosts his floor and ceiling in this spot. Most of his down games have been when he struggled to connect on his field goal attempts like he did against Milwaukee just a few games ago, but that shouldn't be an issue tonight against an Orlando team whose 47.4 percent opponent field goal percentage allowed is tied for the fourth-highest in the NBA. They are league-average at defending the three-point line this season, which doesn't necessarily help Lowry tonight, but his increased three-point attempts of late make him even more interesting. The Magic rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season, which is great, and they are giving up the ninth-most rebounds per game to opposing guards on the season. They are also allowing 3.9 steals per game to guards, boosting his upside even more! Tonight's projected total of 220 points for this game is a whole seven points higher than the average game for the Raptors, so this should be a fast-paced affair, meaning the entire Toronto team is in a great spot. With that being said, DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka, Pascal Siakam, and the value guards can also be considered.

DK Salary: $5,700 / FD Salary: $6,000

I have tossed out plenty of higher priced options so now I am going to focus on someone in the midrange area for tonight. I do actually expect Harrison, along with some other Memphis players, to be popular tonight but I am going to overlook that as the matchup is just too good to overlook. Memphis will be short-handed tonight with Tyreke Evans, Mike Conley, Wayne Selden, Deyonta Davis, and Chandler Parsons already ruled out, so there will be plenty of usage and shots to go around for the remaining options like Harrison, Gasol, Brooks, Green, and Chalmers. Harrison has posted at least 30 fantasy points in five of his last ten games, and 25 in seven of those ten, and is averaging .93 fantasy points per minute with a 28 percent usage rate with those previously mentioned players off the court. He has double-digit field goal attempts in four-straight games, and seven of the last ten, so he should be jacking up shots against this terrible Phoenix defense tonight. The Suns are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to point guards this season, surrendering 48.7, and they have been abysmal defending the pick-and-roll. Harrison isn't extremely efficient in the pick-and-roll but it does account for over 40 percent of his possessions this season. They are also struggling to defend in isolation and transition, two other areas where Harrison is operating with a frequency over 10 percent. I will definitely be getting exposure to the shortened rotation in Memphis tonight, and that starts with Harrison.