NBA GPP Green Light 3-12-18

Greetings, everyone! Welcome to another Monday edition of the NBA GPP Green Light! This week's schedule is a little strange, as we have just four games around the NBA tonight, and we have a steady slate of games the rest of the week. Even though we have a shortened slate tonight, we still have plenty of good GPP options to target. All four of our games tonight have projected totals over 200 points, with the Spurs at Rockets topping the slate at 214.5 points. We have already heard some important news that changes the way the slate looks, with Aldridge, Wade, and Whiteside ruled out for tonight, and we are still awaiting news on Steven Adams and the Sacramento Kings players.

DK Salary: $9,300 / FD Salary: $9,500

Despite only having four games on tap today, we still have a slate full of high-priced studs to target. None of those studs are in great matchups, outside of Russell Westbrook, which makes me want to continue my strategy of going with a balanced lineup approach tonight. Since that is my strategy tonight, Damian Lillard will come in as my top pay up option. Lillard himself is in a tough matchup, as the Heat rank fourth in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season, but they have struggled against point guards of late. They have allowed opposing point guards to shoot 48.4 percent from beyond-the-arc over the last ten games, which bodes well for Lillard as he has attempted double-digit three-pointers in three straight games. Lillard has been extremely consistent, scoring at least 45 fantasy points in eight of the last ten games. He has topped 30 real points in six of the last ten games, making him a high-upside option tonight, as well.

DK Salary: $5,100 / FD Salary: $5,700

I expect the Kings at OKC game to be a popular target tonight, although the Thunder side of the game will likely be the most popular side. Because of this, I will be making sure to get some exposure to the Kings side of this game as an ownership pivot off the chalkier options like Paul George and Russell Westbrook. Buddy Hield is one of the Kings I will be looking to get the most exposure to tonight and he comes in at a fair price across the industry. It's no surprise that Oklahoma City has struggled on defense without Andre Roberson on the floor and over the last ten games they have surrendered 106 points per game over the last ten games. They have really struggled against shooting guards over that span, as they ranked 27th in defensive efficiency against the position over that span. Over that time, opposing shooting guards have racked up 25.7 points, 7.6 rebounds, six assists, 1.7 steals and .8 blocks per game. They are shooting 45.3 percent from the floor and 42.1 percent from three, as well. Hield has been on a solid run recently, as he is coming off another 30-point outing against the Hawks yesterday, and has notched five 30-plus fantasy point outings over the last ten games. He will see an added benefit if the Kings rest some of their veterans, like Randolph and Carter, although he likely won't need it. He has torched the Thunder in their three previous meetings this season and he is averaging 34.4 fantasy points per game against them in those games.

DK Salary: $4,700 / FD Salary: $4,400

The shorthanded Spurs head to Houston tonight in a near must-win game, and they will have to do so without LaMarcus Aldridge and Manu Giniboli. I expect that some of the Spurs value options will be popular tonight, although I have a feeling that Davis Bertans will be the most popular Spurs value play of the night. I am going to plant my flag on Rudy Gay, however, as he sees a huge boost in usage and per minute production when Aldridge, Leonard, and Ginobili are off the floor. The downside with Gay is that he is going to play limited minutes, but considering the fact he is averaging 1.30 fantasy points per minute with a 31.3 percent usage rate with those three off the floor, I am willing to overlook that tonight. He has seen his price plummet over the past few games, as well, which makes him even more appealing tonight. The last time Aldridge sat out, a week ago against the Lakers, Gay managed 15 points with 8 rebounds and did so in 26 minutes. While the Rockets are a tough matchup, and I have no expectations of Gay coming out and dropping 30-plus fantasy points tonight, this will be a fast-paced game and there is some rebounding upside for Gay in this spot.

DK Salary: $4,200 / FD Salary: $4,800

While there is a decent chance that the Memphis Grizzlies get run off the court against the Bucks tonight, there is still value to be had with some of the value options in the backcourt. The Grizzlies are without Tyreke Evans, Mario Chalmers, and Andrew Harrison once again, meaning Dillon Brooks will step into a significant amount of minutes tonight. Brooks has been solid of late, with four straight games over 20 fantasy points, and he flashed major upside against Chicago just last week. He has scored in double figures in each of the last four games, as well, and the young guard is posting a respectable 29.6 percent usage rate and .82 fantasy points per minute with the aforementioned guard trio off the floor this season. Milwaukee looks like a tough matchup on paper, as they rank 2nd in fantasy points allowed to small forwards this season, but they have ranked 26th in defensive efficiency against small forwards over the last ten games. They have allowed 22.9 points, on 43.3 percent shooting, 6.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.9 steals, and .6 blocks per game over that span. In addition to Brooks, Ben McLemore is another solid value guard option to consider from the Memphis side of this game tonight.