NBA GPP Green Light 3-13-18

After a dreadful four-game slate yesterday, we are blessed with a great 11 games around the NBA tonight. We have plenty of games with high projected team totals, at least three over 220 points, and only one game with a total projected below 200 points. There are nine teams total with projected team totals over 110 points tonight, Wizards, Raptors, Pelicans, Hornets, Clippers, Suns, Cavaliers, Lakers, and Nuggets, with the Bulls coming in just below at 109. We are still waiting on news about LaMarcus Aldridge, as that could most certainly change the outlook of the slate from a value perspective tonight, and there are some injury situations to monitor from OKC and New York, as well. Seven of the NBA's worst ten teams are taking the hardwood tonight, with a couple in games that could end up being blowouts, and two of them facing each other with the Mavs heading to MSG to take on the Knicks.

DK Salary: $8,500 / FD Salary: $8,400

While Anthony Davis may be the star of this game, as he is coming off a triple-double with points, rebounds, and blocks, but it is Dwight Howard that I am most interested in tonight. Howard is coming off a big game himself, after posting 30 points with 12 rebounds and four blocks against the Suns, and the matchup against the Pelicans is a great one, despite the overall numbers on paper. Howard has been outstanding in recent games, with 30 points and double-digit rebounds in two of his last three, and he is in line for even more minutes with backup big man Cody Zeller listed as doubtful for this game. Howard is one of the league's top big men when it comes to rebounding, as he ranks sixth in rebounding chances with 20.4 per game, and he is seventh in the NBA with his 11.2 points in the paint per game. Both of those will come in handy tonight as he faces off against the Pelicans, a team that has allowed a league-high 56.4 points in the paint and is second in the NBA over that span allowing 48 rebounds per game. Obviously, foul trouble is a slight concern for Howard as he faces off against Davis, but he managed to control it last time these teams faced off when he scored 22 points with 16 rebounds, on his way to a stellar 50.5 fantasy points.

DK Salary: $6,300 / FD Salary: $6,500

We get a "tank-off" tonight as two of the top-10 teams in the tank race will be facing off against each other tonight at Madison Square Garden. The Mavericks are also without swingman Wesley Matthews tonight, adding further intrigue to at least one side of this game. With Matthews being out, there will be plenty of usage and production to go around, with some of that falling to Harrison Barnes. While Barnes generally is someone that I only like to target in cash games, because of his consistency and minutes, I am looking to target him in GPPs tonight, as well. Since the All-Star break, Barnes has posted a usage rate of 30.6 percent, while averaging .89 fantasy points per minute, with Matthews off the floor. He has produced some solid games recently, as well, with at last 35 fantasy points in four of his last ten games and has notched double-digit field goal attempts in 11 straight games. He gets a matchup against a Knicks team that ranks 22nd in fantasy points allowed to small forwards on the season, and over the last ten games has ranked 29th in defensive efficiency. I am banking on Barnes' increased usage to carry him to a big game against a terrible Knicks squad tonight.

DK Salary: $5,000 / FD Salary: $4,900

On the other side of tonight's "tank-off," we have a couple of interesting spots to attack. While Tim Hardaway Jr. and Luke Kornet are interesting names, should Enes Kanter and Lance Thomas sit this game out, it is Emmanuel Mudiay that I have the most interest in. With Trey Burke nursing an injury over the last few games, Mudiay has turned into a reliable fantasy asset and has scored 28.25 and 28.5 fantasy points in back-to-back outings. He has shot extremely well in those games, connecting on 13-of-27 attempts, and has seen 28 and 30 minutes in those games. He will receive a nice boost if both Thomas and Kanter are ruled out tonight, as he is averaging 1.09 fantasy points per minute with a 24.5 percent usage rate with those two off the floor. Mudiay gets a great matchup against a Mavericks team that ranks 20th in fantasy points allowed to point guards, giving up 47.66 per game, and over the last ten games, they have ranked 21st in defensive efficiency. The Mavericks are one of the worst rim protecting teams in the NBA, as opponents are shooting 67 percent at the rim against them, which bodes well for Mudiay as he is attempting 34 percent of his shots at the rim this season. The Mavericks are also terrible at defending the pick-and-roll, and while Mudiay only ranks in the 5th percentile in pick-and-roll efficiency, it does account for almost 50 percent of his possessions this season. Mudiay is a great way to get cheap exposure to the great tank-off taking place tonight.

DK Salary: $4,900 / FD Salary: $4,600

The Clippers head to Chicago tonight to take on the Bulls which means I will be making sure to get plenty of exposure to the Los Angeles side of this game. That exposure starts with Milos Teodosic, as he is just way too cheap for the matchup tonight. Teodosic is coming off a solid game against the Magic last time out, where he posted 15 points and seven rebounds in 31 minutes, and it was the first time since late January. He notched 10 field goal attempts against the Magic, as well, which was promising and I am hoping that he will see 30 minutes again tonight against another terrible point guard defense. He notched 28.25 fantasy points against the Magic and has at least 27 fantasy points in three of his last ten, which would be a solid return on his salary if he can hit that mark tonight. Chicago, as I mentioned, is terrible against point guards and they have given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position on the season. Over the last ten games, they rank 27th in defensive efficiency and have given up 25.6 points and 10.3 assists in those games. This is a great spot to attack Milos, especially before his price goes back up, and I am hoping that he is an overlooked part of this game tonight.

DK Salary: $4,000 / FD Salary: $4,400

Dragan Bender hasn't been a reliable fantasy option of late, as he has only eclipsed 25 fantasy points in just two of his last four games, but he has been playing a decent number of minutes, is in a great matchup, and comes in as one of the cheapest ways to get exposure to one of the highest projected totals on the slate. Bender is averaging 33 minutes per game over the last five games, has notched eight field goal attempts in two of the last four games, and his ability to spot-up beyond-the-arc is something that Phoenix can use to exploit a major weakness in the Cavaliers defense. The Cavaliers are the league's fifth-worst defense defending spot-up shooters, allowing 24.5 points per game on 41.2 percent shooting, and Bender is spotting up on a staggering 45.3 percent of his possessions this season. Cleveland has struggled all season long against power forwards, allowing 45.1 fantasy points per game to the position, and over the last ten games, they have ranked 29th in defensive efficiency to the position. Over that span, opposing power forwards have connected on a staggering 44.1 percent of three-point attempts and 50.5 percent of overall field goal attempts. Tonight's matchup between the Suns and Cavs will be a great game to target from a fantasy perspective, and I am hoping that Bender is an overlooked part of it.