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One Day Fantasy Baseball One Day Fantasy Baseball

Greetings, everyone! Welcome to another Wednesday edition of the NBA GPP Green Light! This week's schedule is a little strange, as we have just four games around the NBA tonight, and we have a normal slate of games the rest of the week. Even though we have a shortened slate tonight, we still have some great GPP targets to look at. All four games tonight have projected totals over 200 points, with three of the four coming in between 205 and 210, and the Lakers are Warriors end the night with a projected total of 226 points. Injuries are the true story of tonight's slate and we have already received a heap of news that can shape our decisions early on. The Warriors will be without Curry and Green, and potentially Klay, the Heat will most likely be without Wade and Whiteside, the Celtics will be without Brown, Irving, Smart, Theis, and potentially Horford, and the Magic could once again be without Aaron Gordon tonight.

Khris Middleton, SG/SF, Milwaukee Bucks

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

33 108.25 27 43.19 23.25 32.45 31.81

DK Salary: $7,500 / FD Salary: $7,400

Brandon Jennings made his Bucks debut against the Memphis Grizzlies, pulling his best Russell Westbrook impression and almost notching a triple-double in 24 minutes, but Khris Middleton was having himself a solid game in that outing, as well. With the spotlight potentially on Jennings, Giannis, and Bledsoe, Middleton could end up being an overlooked part of this Bucks team tonight. Middleton has been heating up recently, with at least 40 fantasy points in two of his last three games, and he has posted double-digit field goal attempts in each of those three games. He has posted double-digit field goal attempts in nine of the last ten games, as well, and notched an additional 40-plus point game in that span. Over his last six games, Middleton has connected on over 50 percent of his field goal attempts and he has connected on 57 percent of his three-point attempts over the last two games. The Magic present a great matchup tonight, as they have not only been the 27th ranked defense against shooting guards, but they are giving up 109.7 points per game this season. Orlando struggles against the pick-and-roll, as well, and Middleton is operating as the ball handler in the pick-and-roll on 20 percent of his possessions this season. He has been incredibly efficient as the ball-handler, ranking in nearly the 90th percentile in efficiency, so he should be able to pick apart Orlando tonight.

Kelly Olynyk, PF/C, Miami Heat

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

30

107.75

29

51.3

17.72

31.33

30.59

DK Salary: $5,100 / FD Salary: $5,700

The duo of Hassan Whiteside and Dwyane Wade have been tentatively ruled out for tonight's game, although the beat writers hinted that their status could change prior to tip, so that news is something to keep an eye on. That being said, we should be able to get Kelly Olynyk in a great spot if those two end up sitting out after all. Olynyk has been solid of late, averaging 30 fantasy points per game over his last six games, and he will benefit from the combination of an excellent matchup and the added usage with those two off the floor. With Whiteside and Wade off the floor this season, a rather large sample size, Olynyk is averaging 1.07 fantasy points per minute with a 24.4 percent usage rate. Olynyk posted a solid 9 points with seven assists and five rebounds last game without that duo, in a tough matchup against the Trail Blazers, and we can expect a better performance tonight against a much easier opponent. The Kings have been downright atrocious against opposing big men all season, giving up 54.19 fantasy points per game to centers (the position that Olynyk has been playing with Whiteside out), but they also struggle to defend spot-up shooters and post-ups. They are giving up 24 points per game to spot up shooters, a play that accounts for almost 25 percent of Olynyk's possessions this season, and they are the second-worst defense in the NBA against post-ups, allowing 5.8 points per game, which accounts for almost 10 percent of Olynyk's possessions. There are a lot of great options from the Miami side of this game, and Olynyk could be a popular one tonight, but he has a lot of upside at his price tonight.

Jayson Tatum, SF/PF, Boston Celtics

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

38

101.25

25

42.37

19.56

31.49

31.55

DK Salary: $5,700 / FD Salary: $6,500

The Celtics are limping into tonight's crucial matchup against the Wizards and they are incredibly shorthanded. Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart, Daniel Theis and Jaylen Brown have already been ruled out and big man Al Horford is questionable with an illness that forced him to miss a game over the weekend. Because of the injuries in the backcourt, Terry Rozier and Shane Larkin will be two chalky options from this game. One option that I am hoping will come in lower owned is Jayson Tatum, as Tatum has been great in limited minutes with all those injured players off the floor. He leads the team with a 33.2 percent usage rate with them out and he is racking up 1.11 fantasy points per minute. He is coming off a great game against the Pacers, where he played 34 minutes and racked up 35.75 fantasy points, and he faces off against a Wizards team that has been torched by opposing small forwards this season. The Wizards rank 25th in fantasy points allowed to small forwards this season, giving up 42.49 fantasy points per game, and that number will go up after giving up a massive 17-point, eight rebound, seven assist game to Nemanja Bjelica. I will continue to ride that trend as it leads me to the top of the leaderboard with Tatum tonight.



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