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One Day Fantasy Baseball One Day Fantasy Baseball

Welcome to another Monday edition of the GPP Green Light! We have a very balanced schedule in the NBA this week, with seven games around the NBA to kick it off tonight. Six of the seven games come in with totals over 200 points tonight, with the Grizzlies at Spurs being the lone exception, and the Trail Blazers at Lakers tops the slate with a total of 223.5 points. The Cavaliers, Heat, Lakers, Celtics, and Trail Blazers all have team totals over 110 points, making them some great teams to target. There are only four "tanking" teams on the slate tonight, so there won't be a lot of drama around lineups and veterans resting tonight. Injuries will play a major role in how we can attack the slate, as the Grizzlies injury report is about a mile long and the Cavaliers have a few bodies missing tonight, as well.

Damian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail Blazers

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

34 113 28 49.9 33.92 47.05 45.59

DK Salary: $9,700 / FD Salary: $9,400

You should probably get used to seeing Lillard in the GPP article going forward because it seems no one wants to give this man the respect he deserves in DFS. Lillard let me down against OKC, which could help keep his ownership down, but he has scored over 50 fantasy points in five of the last ten games, has hoisted at least 20 field goal attempts in six of those games, and has scored at least 26 real points in six of the last ten. He is posting a 33.3 percent usage rate over that span, a 3 percent increase on his season rate, and has accounted for 37 percent of the team's points over that span, as well. Lillard struggled with his shot against the Thunder, as he connected on just 27.8 percent of attempts, but that shouldn't be an issue tonight given the Lakers have allowed opposing point guards to connect on 46.3 percent of their attempts over the last ten games. They rank 28th in fantasy points allowed to point guards on the season, surrendering 49.9 per game, and Lillard should smash that number tonight.

Goran Dragic, PG, Phoenix Suns

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

34

112.75

29

50.2

23.09

38.35

37.34

DK Salary: $7,800 / FD Salary: $7,200

There was pretty much no way that I was going to post this article today without having Dragic in it. There are plenty of reasons to love him tonight, starting with the matchup, but the one that will get talked about the most today is the REVENGE! Dragic is facing off against his former team, one that he felt betrayed by, which further fuels my love for him tonight. Over the last two seasons, the Dragon has torched (See what I did there??) for 39 fantasy points per game and has eclipsed 40 fantasy points against them twice. He has cooled off a little of late but he has still eclipsed 35 fantasy in two of his last four games and six of the last ten. He has posted double-digit field goal attempts in two of those last four and would benefit in usage and minutes if Ellington and Tyler Johnson are unable to suit up tonight. Regardless of their status, however, he is still a great option as the Suns have been one of the worst point guards defenses, and defenses as a whole, on the season. They are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game (50.2) to the position and opposing point guards are connecting on 46.3 percent of field goal attempts this season. They are one of the worst pick-and-roll defenses in the NBA, allowing 18.5 points per game on the play, which accounts for almost 40 percent of Dragic's possessions this season. Everything lines up for the Dragon to be in a great spot tonight and locking him in will help you fly up the leaderboards. (I promise that will be my last pun in this article.)

(Lol, it won't be)

Bobby Portis, PF/C, Chicago Bulls

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

33

102.75

7

42

28.7

38.28

37.29

DK Salary: $6,200 / FD Salary: $7,400

Fred Hoiberg announced yesterday that Bobby Portis would be inserted into the starting lineup and if the Chicago Bulls are going to stand a puncher's chance (HAHAHAHA I crack myself up) at staying in this game, they will need a knockout (HAHA) performance out of Portis tonight. Portis will be starting alongside Dunn, LaVine, Nwaba, and Markkanen tonight, a lineup that has played 25 minutes together this season. In those 25 minutes together, Markkanen is just behind LaVine in both usage and production with a 26.4 percent usage rate while averaging 1.11 fantasy points per minute. Portis has already beat up the Celtics twice this season, as he is averaging 32.8 fantasy points in 21.6 minutes against them, and now that he is freed he should find himself on the court for 30-plus minutes tonight. The matchup isn't the greatest, as the Celtics are a top-10 team against centers, but he is an excellent post-up big man that plays with a lot of energy, and that has been a struggle for the Celtics defensively this season. Portis' price on FanDuel is a touch higher than I would like but he still makes for an excellent GPP play there, and his price on Draftking is just too cheap.

Reggie Bullock, SG/SF, Detroit Pistons

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

32

218.5

29

41.1

21.55

23.04

22.40

DK Salary: $4,600 / FD Salary: $4,900

Targeting the "new-look" Cavaliers has been a profitable strategy since the trade deadline, which means the struggling Detroit Pistons find themselves on my radar tonight. Their is a significant amount of risk surrounding all the Pistons, due to their recent level of play, but it is tough to ignore the matchup. I will be working on getting some cheaper exposure to the Pistons tonight, just in case the game gets out of hand, as it will be easier for them to exceed value if they play limited minutes. That starts with Reggie Bullock who has been an excellent source of fantasy production recently. He has notched at least 20 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games and has reached 6x value, at his current salary, in four of the last ten games. He has posted a 20.9 percent usage rate over that span of games, so he has the ball in his hands a decent amount. He ranks in the 75th percentile of players on spot-up efficiency, shooting 41 percent and averaging 2.8 points per game on the play, which happens to be a major weakness of this Cavaliers defense. The Cavaliers rank as a 20th percentile defense against spot-ups where they are allowing 24.7 points per game. They are allowing opponents to shoot an eye-popping 44 percent on corner threes this season, where 17 percent of Bullock's overall field goal attempts come from. Bullock should continue to be an excellent source of value tonight, and one that should come in relatively low owned.

Daniel Theis, PF/C, Boston Celtics

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

18

111.75

22

43.6

14.29

19.98

20.34

DK Salary: $3,700 / FD Salary: $4,100

There are a lot of great higher priced options on tonight's slate, so we will need to find a few cheap plays to fit them all in. I think Daniel Theis could end up being one of those options for us, as the Celtics are taking on a tanking Bulls squad. Their defense is terrible, as they are allowing 110.4 points per game over the last ten games, and they have been terrible on the glass all season long. They have allowed opponents to pull down 45.7 rebounds per game on the season, while also lacking a true source of rim protection. Because of those weaknesses, we could see Theis come in off the bench and wreck things in the paint for Boston. Theis has been a great fantasy producer, off the bench, when he has been given the opportunity to play this season. He has played at least 20 minutes in 14 games this season and in those 14 games, he has eclipsed 20 fantasy points in nine games. The Bulls really struggle against the roll man, and spot-up shooters, which accounts for almost 45 percent of Theis' production this season. I am not expecting him to come out and put up 30-plus fantasy points tonight but if he can see 20-plus minutes tonight, he could easily get us 24-26 which would be a great return on his salary.



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